Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong profit growth for S&P 500 companies, with a year-on-year increase of 12% in Q3 2025, despite macroeconomic concerns [7][8]. Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown negatively impacted Q4 economic growth by approximately 1.1 to 1.2 percentage points, but a rebound to 3.1% growth is expected in Q1 due to government spending [1][2]. - The Supreme Court's skepticism regarding the President's authority to impose tariffs under IEEPA may lead to partial overturning of tariffs, although significant presidential power remains [1][4]. - The labor market is anticipated to weaken, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in December, although uncertainty remains [1][5]. - The AI sector is experiencing significant capital expenditure growth, with projections for large-scale data centers raised from $470 billion to $530 billion [8][9]. Summary by Sections Economic Impact - The government shutdown has caused a drag on economic growth, but a rebound is expected due to increased government spending [1][2]. - The labor market's performance will be crucial for the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates [5][10]. Tariff and Legal Considerations - The Supreme Court's upcoming decision on tariffs could reshape the landscape of U.S. trade policy, with implications for specific countries [4][1]. Corporate Performance - S&P 500 companies showed strong profit growth, with a notable increase in guidance for Q4, indicating positive market expectations [7][8]. - AI companies are financially robust, with strong cash flows and low debt levels, positioning them well for future growth despite market volatility [9][18]. Currency and Market Outlook - The U.S. dollar is expected to gradually depreciate as economic performance weakens, influenced by labor market data and potential interest rate cuts [10][12]. - Emerging market currencies may perform better if the U.S. economy underperforms, with the potential for a stable yuan to support the Asian region [12][10].

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 海外周报 20251116 11 月非农料为美联储 12 月降息的关键变量 2025 年 11 月 16 日 ◼ 海外政治：美国联邦政府结束停摆，经济数据恢复发布料影响 12 月 FOMC 决议。美东时间 11 月 12 日，美国众议院表决通过了一项临时 拨款法案，为政府机构提供运作资金至 2026 年 1 月 30 日。随后特朗普 于白宫正式签署该法案，标志着为期 43 天的美国史上最长政府停摆正 式结束。一方面，本次政府停摆带来的紧财政与紧流动性效果料给美国 经济带来"先抑后扬"的影响。近期 CBO 的测算数据显示，为期 6 周 的政府停摆将对 25Q4 和 26Q1 美国实际 GDP 带来-1.5%和+2.2%的影响 效果（见图 18）。另一方面，随着联邦政府恢复运作，许多重要的经济 数据将重新恢复发布，其中 11 月 20 日 BLS 将发布 9 月非农就业数据； 11 月 26 日 BEA 将发布 25Q3 美国 GDP 修正值。但根据白宫新闻秘书 莱维特和白宫国家经济委员会主任哈赛特的消息，10 月非农可能只公 布就业岗位的部分数据而无法公布失业率数据，10 月 ...

记者丨 叶麦穗 编辑丨曾芳 人民币汇率走强，11月14日，人民币对美元汇率在岸价逼近7.09，一度达到7.0908，创一年来新高。 专家表示，受益于美元整体偏弱的外部环境、国内权益市场表现亮眼吸引外资流入等，人民币对美元汇率稳中有升，整体维持较强韧性。 展望未来，短期内人民币对美元汇率仍将处于偏强运行状态，并有望在2026年保持温和升值。 中间价上涨近1 0 0 0个基点 中国外汇交易中心数据显示，11月14日，人民币对美元中间价调升40个基点，报7.0825， 今年以来，人民币中间价年内涨幅约1000个基点。 "近期人民币对美元汇率中间价上调，主要源于美元指数小幅走低。" 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，近期在全球汇市波动加大过程中，人 民币对美元汇率中间价向偏强方向调整力度有所加大。 对于近期人民币对美元汇率的偏强表现，王青分析，年初以来国内经济走势偏强，在美元指数大幅下跌情况下，人民币对美元汇率尽管有所升 值，但未能与自身价值充分匹配。 市场汇率方面， 11月14日，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率同样呈现小幅上涨走势，截至北京时间12点，在岸人民币报7.0937，离岸人民币报 7.0935。 此外，中国外汇 ...

Core Insights - China was once the global center for cryptocurrency, controlling 80% of Bitcoin production and 85% of trading volume, but has now been overtaken by the U.S. following the "9.24 ban" which classified cryptocurrency mining as an "eliminated industry" [1][35][36] - The U.S. is promoting "green mining" by utilizing wasted energy as a strategic asset, positioning itself as the new leader in the cryptocurrency space [1][10] Group 1: Bitcoin as an Energy Resource - Bitcoin mining is often criticized for wasting energy, with the energy required to mine one Bitcoin equivalent to the annual electricity consumption of about 80 American households [4][5] - Both the U.S. and China experience significant amounts of wasted electricity annually, with China alone discarding 5.59 billion kilowatt-hours of wind and solar energy in 2024 [8] - In the U.S., 19% of wasted electricity is projected to be consumed by mining operations by 2025, resulting in a reduction of 1.3 million tons of CO₂ emissions [11] Group 2: U.S. Strategic Initiatives - The U.S. has introduced the "FLARE Act" to utilize associated gas from oil extraction for powering mining operations, effectively reducing pollution while mining [16][17] - The merger of Hut8 and the Trump family's "American Data Center Company" to form "American Bitcoin Company" highlights the political and financial interests in the mining sector [21][22] - The Trump administration has positioned Bitcoin alongside gold and oil, promoting it as a tool for economic stability and risk hedging [27][28] Group 3: China's Potential Strategies - Experts suggest that China could convert its wasted electricity into Bitcoin as a form of energy reserve, adopting a model similar to Texas's "solar + storage + mining" approach [40] - Establishing a digital RMB stablecoin and enhancing cross-border settlements could help China regain its footing in the cryptocurrency market [41][42] - Accelerating the production of advanced chips domestically to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers like TSMC is crucial for China's competitiveness in the mining hardware sector [45][46] Group 4: The Broader Implications - The CEO of Core Scientific emphasizes that the U.S. aims to "weaponize" Bitcoin by controlling energy through mining operations [48] - China's ability to convert wasted electricity into computational power, combined with a stablecoin strategy, could reshape the balance of power in the global economy [49][51] - The next decade will see Bitcoin mining evolve beyond a technical competition to a significant shift in civilizational dynamics [52]

Core Viewpoint - Renowned analyst Stephen Jen maintains a bearish outlook on the US dollar, believing that its recent rebound is unlikely to last and that the dollar will continue to decline [1][3]. Group 1: Dollar Outlook - According to Jen's estimates, the dollar index may decline by an additional 13.5% during Trump's remaining presidential term [3]. - As of 2025, the dollar index is projected to have fallen approximately 7% from the beginning of the year, potentially making 2025 the worst year for the dollar in nearly eight years [3]. - The dollar's weakness this year is primarily attributed to the erratic trade policies of the Trump administration and strong market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - A report from ADP indicates a noticeable slowdown in the US labor market, with job growth falling short of expectations, which contributed to a slight decline in the Bloomberg dollar spot index [3]. - The International Monetary Fund forecasts that US GDP growth will slow from 2.8% last year to 2% by 2025, while the Eurozone's economic growth is expected to rise from 0.9% in 2024 to 1.2% [3]. Group 3: Policy Implications - Jen emphasizes that the Trump administration's efforts to revitalize US manufacturing align with a weaker dollar, as it would lower export costs and enhance competitiveness in global markets [3]. Group 4: Alternative Assets - The market's aversion to the dollar and other major reserve currencies is increasing, driving prices of alternative assets like gold to historical highs [4]. - Jen believes that as the dollar continues its downward trend, the preference for safe-haven assets and non-sovereign currency assets will strengthen, sustaining the upward trend in gold prices [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have not led to a decrease in gold prices, which have reached new highs, indicating that monetary policy alone cannot resolve the underlying issues in the U.S. economy [1][3]. Gold Market Analysis - Goldman Sachs has reported that international gold prices have entered a bull market, projecting prices to reach $6,000 per ounce, with current prices exceeding $3,770 per ounce, reflecting a nearly 2% increase [3][4]. - The domestic price of gold jewelry has surpassed 1,100 yuan per gram, while the spot trading price has exceeded 865 yuan per gram, marking unprecedented high prices [3][4]. - Gold prices have been adjusted for inflation, surpassing historical peaks from 45 years ago, with 31 new price highs recorded in 2025 alone [3][4]. Economic Implications - The continuous rise in gold prices suggests a depreciation of the U.S. dollar against gold, with predictions of significant dollar devaluation in the next 5 to 7 years [4][5]. - The U.S. is facing increasing fiscal and trade deficits, with the potential for a fiscal crisis, which could lead to a loss of confidence in the dollar and a shift towards gold as a safe-haven asset [8][10]. - Global experts, including Ray Dalio from Bridgewater Associates, have expressed concerns about the U.S. economic policies, warning of a possible debt crisis reminiscent of the Great Depression [8][10]. Market Sentiment - The ongoing concerns regarding the U.S. economic outlook have contributed to the sustained bull market in gold, even after inflation adjustments [10]. - The political interference in the Federal Reserve's operations has raised doubts about its independence and credibility, further driving investors towards gold [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition from a strong dollar cycle to a weak dollar cycle, highlighting the expected decline of the US dollar and its implications for global assets and currencies [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Dollar Cycle Phases - The dollar has experienced various cycles since 1971, with the current phase being a weak dollar cycle that has lasted over a year [1]. - Morgan Stanley predicts a significant decline in the DXY dollar index to 89 by the end of 2026, approximately 10% lower than the current level of 99.7 [2]. Currency Predictions - By the end of 2026, the euro is expected to rise from 1.1533 to 1.27 against the dollar, and the British pound from 1.3111 to 1.47 [2]. - The dollar is projected to fall against the Japanese yen from 154 to 124 [2]. - Deutsche Bank forecasts the dollar to yuan exchange rate to drop to 6.7 by the end of 2026 [2]. Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve recently lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4.00%, signaling a gradual easing approach [2]. - Market expectations for further rate cuts in 2026 have decreased, with a potential terminal rate approaching 3% [2]. Factors Influencing Dollar Weakness - Interest rate differentials are narrowing, with the Fed's rate cuts and the European Central Bank's slower rate cuts expected to reduce the dollar's carry trade advantage [3]. - Fiscal policies, including the anticipated tax cuts under Trump, are projected to increase federal deficits significantly, contributing to a weaker dollar [3]. - Global trust in the dollar as a safe asset is diminishing due to geopolitical tensions and economic policies, with the IMF reporting the lowest global dollar reserve share since 1995 [3]. Asset Rotation and Market Sentiment - A clear rotation in global assets is anticipated, with risk assets rebounding and commodity prices rising as the dollar weakens [7]. - Institutions like Allianz, UBS, and Bank of America recognize the consensus on a weaker dollar, shifting market logic towards buying non-dollar assets [7]. - UBS has upgraded emerging market stocks to overweight, particularly favoring Chinese stocks due to their relative valuation and low foreign investor holdings [7].

Core Viewpoint - The market is betting on multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a weaker dollar in the coming months, with traders expected to maintain net short positions on the dollar throughout November [1]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - A recent Reuters survey indicated that 30 out of 45 strategists (two-thirds) expect traders to maintain net short positions on the dollar by the end of November, although the degree of short positioning is anticipated to be less extreme than in previous observations [1]. - According to Jayati Bharadwaj from TD Securities, the current dollar positioning is only moderately bearish and is gradually approaching neutral levels, contrasting with previous extremes [2]. - The probability of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve is currently estimated at around 70%, down from nearly 90% prior to the last policy meeting, which has cooled the enthusiasm for "selling the dollar" but has not changed overall market expectations [2]. Group 2: Currency Forecasts - Strategists predict that the euro will appreciate against the dollar, with expectations of a slight increase to 1.18 in three months and reaching 1.20 in six months, while the one-year forecast remains stable at 1.21 [2]. - Approximately 53% of respondents in a recent survey believe that the dollar's year-end closing price is more likely to be below their predicted value, indicating a cautious outlook [3]. Group 3: Political Influence on Monetary Policy - Vincent Reinhart, a former Fed official, noted that political influence on the Federal Reserve is expected to increase, particularly as the current administration gains more voting power on the Fed's board over time [3]. - The current administration's strong approach in exercising this control is a core reason for the prediction of lower policy rates and a depreciating dollar [4].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Technology Index experienced a decline of over 2%, influenced by a sell-off in U.S. tech stocks, with major AI concept stocks mostly falling [1] - Key stocks such as Bilibili, Tencent Music, Kingsoft, Huahong Semiconductor, SenseTime, and XPeng Motors led the decline, while Alibaba saw a drop of over 2% with a trading volume exceeding 7.5 billion [1] - Chief Investment Officer of Lianhua Asset Management, Hong Hao, indicated that a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is a high probability event due to current liquidity tightness and inflation pressures [1] Group 2 - Zheshang Securities highlighted that the depreciation of the U.S. dollar is crucial for the next market breakthrough, with expectations for this trend to solidify by the end of November [2] - The Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) is currently valued at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.59, which is 26.83% lower than its historical average, indicating it is cheaper than over 73% of its historical time [2] - The combination of potential Fed rate cuts and a weakening dollar is expected to attract foreign capital back into the market, with the AI industry trend remaining strong, suggesting a possible turnaround for the Hang Seng Technology Index in the fourth quarter [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance on November 3, with the Hang Seng Technology Index experiencing slight fluctuations after a small opening [1] - The energy and coal sectors remained active, while the semiconductor and non-ferrous metals sectors led the declines [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) followed the index's downward trend, with leading stocks including Xiaomi, Xpeng Motors, and NIO, while SMIC and Huahong Semiconductor lagged [1] Group 2 - According to Zheshang Securities, the current market's capital activity is weakening, and the depreciation of the US dollar is seen as a key factor for the next market breakthrough [1] - The firm anticipates that the depreciation of the US dollar will remain a mid-term trend, with a potential starting point around the end of November [1] - Recent data indicates a shift towards marginal tightening in US fiscal policy, which may weaken the overall US job market [1] Group 3 - As of October 31, the latest valuation (PETTM) of the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) is 22.85 times, placing it in the historical low valuation range, below 71% of the time since the index was launched [2] - The technology sector in Hong Kong is expected to benefit from the current trends in AI, with potential foreign capital inflows exceeding expectations due to the backdrop of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2] - Investors without a Hong Kong Stock Connect account may consider using the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) to gain exposure to core Chinese AI assets [2]