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银行业周度追踪2025年第45周:非银存款加速增长-20251117
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-16 23:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the banking sector [13]. Core Insights - The banking index accelerated its rise this week, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and ChiNext indices, with a relative return of 2.8% and 4.7% respectively [9]. - Non-bank deposits have seen a significant increase, with a year-on-year growth of 770 billion yuan, attributed to high capital market activity [8][36]. - The report highlights that the four major banks have announced early dividend distributions, expected to attract more allocation from institutional investors [2][9]. Summary by Sections Banking Index Performance - The banking index rose by 1.7% this week, with individual stocks like Agricultural Bank of China leading the gains, reaching new highs [9][16]. - H-shares of banks have seen a continuous increase in holdings since October, indicating a growing interest from southbound funds [2][9]. Credit and Deposit Trends - In October, new social financing totaled 816.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 595.9 billion yuan, with the month-end balance growth rate dropping to 8.5% [6][36]. - New RMB loans in October amounted to 220 billion yuan, down 280 billion yuan year-on-year, with a month-end balance growth rate of 6.5% [7][38]. - Both household and corporate deposits have decreased year-on-year, while non-bank deposits have increased, reflecting a shift in deposit behavior [8][55]. Market Dynamics - The average dividend yield for the six major banks' A-shares has decreased to 3.73%, with a spread of 191 basis points over the 10-year government bond yield [18][22]. - The report suggests monitoring convertible bonds of banks as their stock prices approach redemption thresholds, indicating potential trading opportunities [24][10].