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裕元集团(00551):25Q1鞋履制造量价稳增
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-20 13:43
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price yet to be specified [5][4] Core Views - The company reported a 1% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2025, reaching $2 billion, while gross margin decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 23%. Net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 24% to $80 million [1] - Manufacturing revenue grew by 6% year-on-year, but gross margin declined to 18%, a drop of 2.6 percentage points, with net profit down 25% year-on-year. Retail revenue decreased by 5%, with a gross margin of 33% and a 21% decline in net profit [1] - The overall revenue for April 2025 showed a 1% year-on-year increase, with manufacturing revenue up 11% and retail business still in recovery [1] Summary by Sections Manufacturing (Q1 2025) - Revenue from the U.S. increased by 14%, accounting for 29% of total revenue, while Europe saw an 11% increase, making up 27%. However, revenue from mainland China dropped by 19%, representing 15% of total revenue [2] - The total shipment volume of footwear rose by 5% to 62 million pairs, with an average selling price (ASP) increase of 3% to $20, benefiting from a better order mix [2] - Major production regions include Indonesia (55% of total shipments), Vietnam (31%), and mainland China (10%), with Indonesia and Vietnam showing shipment increases of 4% and 13% respectively, while mainland China experienced an 8% decline [2] Retail (Q1 2025) - The company operated 3,437 direct stores, a decrease of 1% year-on-year [3] - Inventory turnover days increased by 19 days to 138 days [3] Financial Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of $8.4 billion, $8.9 billion, and $9.5 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profits of $400 million, $430 million, and $480 million respectively. Corresponding EPS is projected to be $0.25, $0.27, and $0.30, with PE ratios of 6x, 6x, and 5x [4]