Core Insights - Skims, founded by Kim Kardashian, has raised $225 million in a new funding round, increasing its valuation to $5 billion, surpassing Victoria's Secret's market value of $2.9 billion [1][4] Group 1: Brand Growth and Market Positioning - Skims was established in 2019 and quickly gained market traction with its inclusive sizing, diverse skin tone products, and minimalist aesthetic, selling nearly 100,000 units of its first shapewear within two minutes of launch [2][4] - The brand has successfully partnered with the NBA and WNBA as their first official lingerie partner, leveraging key events and social media to enhance brand visibility and expand into the male consumer market [2][3] Group 2: Financial Performance and Valuation - Skims has seen rapid valuation growth, from $1.6 billion in 2021 to $5 billion in 2023, supported by a revenue increase from $145 million in 2020 to $750 million in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 73% [4][5] - The latest funding round was led by Goldman Sachs, bringing the total funding raised to over $889 million, establishing Skims as a benchmark in the consumer goods sector [4][5] Group 3: Strategic Partnerships and Product Expansion - In February 2025, Skims will launch a sub-brand, NikeSKIMS, in collaboration with Nike, focusing on women's activewear, with predictions of a $1 billion market potential [3][4] - The funding will primarily be used to expand retail networks, drive international growth, and develop new product categories, with plans to open 16 new stores in the U.S. by 2025 and enter European and Middle Eastern markets by 2026 [6][7] Group 4: Challenges and Market Strategy - Despite strong global performance, Skims has not yet entered the Chinese market, facing challenges related to local consumer preferences and intense competition from established brands [7] - The company is adopting a cautious expansion strategy, emphasizing thorough market research and localization before entering the Chinese market, with a focus on strengthening retail and international business growth [7]

机构：天风证券 2025 年第三季度，制造业务展现其经营韧性，虽受淡季影响盈利能力按季仍有提升。全球消费景气呈 现稳健发展，美国市场返校季销售优于预期，然而新一轮的关税政策及地缘政治动荡继续带来不确定 性，导致经营环境面临诸多挑战。因应复杂多变的全球经济格局，品牌客户采购策略更趋谨慎，加上 2024 年第三季度表现异常强劲所产生的高基期效应，出货量因此同比下降。 尽管面临对等关税相关负面影响，第三季度公司的优质订单组合继续推升平均单价，部分抵销出货量下 跌对制鞋营收的负面影响。我们预计，四季度FOB 仍有望保持正增。 部分制造产区的订单满单率及产能利用率与均值差异显著，造成产能负载不均情况，并产生额外加班需 求及其他无效成本。制造业务人数按年上升4.4%，加上各地薪资上涨高单位数百分比，大幅推高人工 成本。上述因素对制造业务的短期盈利能力产生负面影响，其中第三季度虽受淡季影响，产能利用率环 比下降，但公司秉持需求导向的生产规划策略，并强化产能调度弹性，有助平衡生产排程，加上各区产 效提升，推动第三季度利润率按季改善。 对长期前景保持乐观 近年运动休闲趋势持续升温，带动多个领导品牌客户缔造良好业绩，而随着二零二 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Yue Yuen International, but it provides insights into the company's performance and management expectations for future quarters [1][7]. Core Insights - Yue Yuen International reported a revenue of USD 6.02 billion for 9M25, a decrease of 1.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of USD 279 million, down 16% year-on-year. For 3Q25, revenue was USD 1.96 billion, down 5% year-on-year, marking the third consecutive quarter of sequential decline, with a net profit of USD 110 million, down 27% year-on-year [1][7]. - The management maintains a prudent dividend policy with a payout ratio of around 70% [1][7]. - The manufacturing segment faced pressure on footwear shipment volumes, but an increase in average selling price (ASP) partially offset revenue declines. The ASP for 3Q25 rose by 3.4% year-on-year to USD 21.4 per pair [2][8]. - Management expects retail performance to improve in 4Q25, with continued increases in ASP and gross margin [2][8]. Summary by Sections Manufacturing Business - In 3Q25, manufacturing revenue was USD 1.96 billion, down 4.5% year-on-year, with footwear manufacturing revenue at USD 1.35 billion, down 2% year-on-year. Footwear shipment volume was approximately 63 million pairs, down 5.3% year-on-year [2][8]. - The gross margin for manufacturing in 3Q25 was 19.4%, up 1.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter but down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to uneven capacity loading and lower utilization rates [2][8]. - Management indicated that current order visibility is about 2-3 months, with some brands showing resilient demand for 1Q26 [2][8]. Retail Business - Pou Sheng recorded revenue of approximately RMB 3.74 billion in 3Q25, down 6.3% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 33.4% [3][9]. - The company is optimizing its offline network, reducing the number of self-operated stores to 3,338 as of September 2025, a decline of about 28% compared to the end of 2021 [3][9]. - Management expects the 4Q performance to improve, with a focus on new product launches and a lower discounting environment [3][9]. Future Outlook - Management views Indonesia and India as key markets for medium- to long-term expansion, anticipating improvements in manufacturing gross margins starting in 2026 [4][10]. - The overall industry is currently at a trough, with expectations for recovery in 2027 as the company continues to optimize its operations and seize opportunities in lower-tier markets [4][12].

研究早观点 2025 年 11 月 17 日 星期一 市场走势 资料来源：最闻 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3,990.49 | -0.97 | | 深证成指 | 13,216.03 | -1.93 | | 沪深 300 | 4,628.14 | -1.57 | | 中小板指 | 8,022.26 | -1.77 | | 创业板指 | 3,111.51 | -2.82 | | 科创 50 | 1,361.23 | -2.72 | 资料来源：最闻 分析师： 彭皓辰 执业登记编码：S0760525060001 邮箱：penghaochen@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 【行业评论】非银行金融：行业周报（20251103-20251109）：-资本市 场双向开放全面深化，券商基本面持续向好 【山证纺服】裕元集团 2025Q3 季度业绩点评 【山证通信】华测导航（300627.SZ）-海外业务拓展良好，业绩保持稳 健增长 【行业评论】脑机接口更新：十五五规划下，上海阶梯医疗脑机接口 产品首次进入 NMPA 创新医疗器械绿色通道 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with a focus on the high-end product mix in its manufacturing business and stable performance in its retail segment [1][2]. Manufacturing Business - For the first three quarters of 2025, the manufacturing business generated revenue of $4.232 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [1]. - The total shipment of finished footwear reached 18.9 million pairs, up 1.3% year-on-year, with an average selling price of $20.88 per pair, reflecting a 3.2% increase [1]. - The capacity utilization rate for the manufacturing business was 93%, a year-on-year increase of 1 percentage point, although it decreased by 3 percentage points to 92% in Q3 2025 [1]. - The gross margin for the manufacturing business fell by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year to 18.3%, primarily due to varying order fulfillment rates and rising labor costs, but it rebounded by 1.6 percentage points to 19.4% in Q3 2025 [1]. - The company is implementing organizational restructuring and cost-reduction plans, with selling, distribution, and administrative expenses as a percentage of revenue decreasing by 0.2 percentage points to 10.2% [1]. Retail Business - The retail business generated revenue of 12.903 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 7.7%, attributed to decreased foot traffic in physical stores and ongoing store closures [2]. - The number of direct stores in mainland China decreased by 110 to 3,338 by the end of Q3 2025, while the overall performance of the omnichannel segment grew by 13% [2]. - The gross margin for the retail business was 33.5%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, and the operating profit margin was 2.3%, down 1.4 percentage points [2]. - The retail business recorded a net profit of $171 million, a significant decline of 50.1% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 1.3%, down 1.2 percentage points [2]. Future Outlook - The company expects slight revenue decline in 2025, with projected revenues of $8.135 billion, $8.588 billion, and $9.051 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year changes of -0.6%, 5.6%, and 5.4% respectively [3]. - The projected net profits for the same period are $353 million, $380 million, and $411 million, with year-on-year changes of -10.1%, 7.9%, and 8.0% respectively [3]. - The closing price on November 12 corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.7, 8.0, and 7.4 for 2025-2027 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The company's manufacturing business revenue performance in Q3 2025 met expectations, with profitability improving beyond expectations [3] - The retail business showed strong performance across all channels, with stable retail discounts year-on-year [4] - The company is focused on organizational restructuring and cost reduction initiatives to enhance efficiency [3][5] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of $6.017 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of $279 million, down 16.0% [2] - Manufacturing business revenue reached $4.232 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, with a gross margin of 18.3%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Retail business revenue was $12.903 billion, a year-on-year decline of 7.7%, with a gross margin of 33.5%, down 0.5 percentage points [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of $8.135 billion, $8.588 billion, and $9.051 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -0.6%, 5.6%, and 5.4% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be $353 million, $380 million, and $411 million for the same years, with year-on-year changes of -10.1%, 7.9%, and 8.0% [9]

Core Viewpoint - Yuanyuan Group (00551) experienced a stock price increase of over 4%, reaching HKD 15.77 with a trading volume of HKD 50.66 million, despite a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were USD 601.7 million and USD 27.9 million, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1% and 16% [1] - In Q3 2025, the revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were USD 195.7 million and USD 10.8 million, showing a year-on-year decline of 5% and 27% [1] Operational Insights - The decline in performance is attributed to factors such as capacity transfer, ramp-up issues in Central Java leading to reduced capacity utilization, and tariff allocations [1] - In Q3, the capacity utilization rate, footwear shipment volume, and average price were 92%, 6.3 million pairs, and USD 21.43, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -3 percentage points, -5.2%, and +3.38% [1] Market Dynamics - The decrease in shipment volume is primarily due to the transfer of production capacity overseas in response to tariffs, while price increases are driven by improvements in product mix [1] - The company exports 29% of its products to the U.S., with production distribution in Indonesia (53%), Vietnam (32%), and China (10%), indicating a strategic shift to cover capacity through overseas production [1] - The impact of tariffs is expected to affect end-consumer demand, thereby influencing order volumes, but the company is positioned to expand market share through increased overseas capacity [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yuyuan Group (00551) experienced a stock price increase of over 4%, reaching HKD 15.77, with a trading volume of HKD 50.66 million. The company's performance for the first three quarters of 2025 showed a decline in revenue and net profit, attributed to capacity transfer and tariff impacts [1]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Yuyuan Group reported revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of USD 601.7 million and USD 27.9 million, respectively, representing a year-on-year decline of 1% and 16% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company recorded revenue and net profit of USD 195.7 million and USD 10.8 million, showing a year-on-year decrease of 5% and 27% [1]. Operational Insights - The decline in Q3 sales growth shifted from positive to negative, primarily due to reduced capacity utilization from capacity transfer and ramp-up issues in Central Java, along with tariff impacts [1]. - In Q3, the capacity utilization rate, footwear shipment volume, and average price were 92%, 6.3 million pairs, and USD 21.43, reflecting year-on-year changes of -3 percentage points, -5.2%, and +3.38%, respectively [1]. Market Dynamics - The company exports 29% of its products to the U.S., with production distribution in Indonesia (53%), Vietnam (32%), and China (10%). The capacity transfer to overseas locations is expected to mitigate the impact of tariffs on end-consumer demand and orders [1]. - Yuyuan Group is anticipated to expand its market share through increased overseas production capacity, despite the challenges posed by tariffs [1].

Core Insights - The company reported a decline in retail sales for the Li Ning brand (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) in Q3 2025, with offline channels experiencing significant drops due to external factors, while online channels maintained high single-digit growth [1] - The company is actively expanding its offline presence, with a net increase of 33 stores in Q3 2025, totaling 6,132 stores for the Li Ning brand [1] - The signing of player Yang Hansheng, who was selected in the first round of the NBA draft, is expected to boost sales of related products and improve the overall market for basketball in China [2] - The company maintains a strong position in the sports apparel sector, focusing on a "single brand, multiple categories, and multiple channels" strategy, with projected net profits of 2.645 billion, 2.843 billion, and 3.101 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [2] Summary by Category Sales Performance - In Q3 2025, the Li Ning brand's retail sales saw a mid-single-digit decline, with offline channels (including retail and wholesale) experiencing high single-digit declines, while online retail sales recorded high single-digit growth [1] Store Expansion - As of September 30, 2025, the Li Ning brand had 6,132 offline stores, with a net increase of 33 stores from the previous quarter, and a total of 1,480 stores for Li Ning YOUNG, reflecting a proactive approach to offline channel expansion [1] Strategic Developments - The recent signing of Yang Hansheng, who was drafted into the NBA, is anticipated to enhance brand visibility and sales of basketball-related products, potentially improving the overall market for basketball in China [2] Financial Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.645 billion yuan in 2025, 2.843 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.101 billion yuan in 2027, supported by its strong brand position and ongoing investment in product development [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the September CPI data in the U.S., highlighting a year-on-year increase of 3%, which is above the previous value of 2.9% but below the expected 3.1%. The core CPI also shows a similar trend, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures influenced by tariffs and energy prices [1][7][20]. CPI Data Summary - The September CPI data was initially scheduled for release on October 15 but was postponed to October 24 due to the government shutdown. However, CPI data remains a priority as it is essential for calculating cost-of-living adjustments for social security [1][6]. - The year-on-year CPI increase of 3% in September reflects a rebound in energy prices, while the month-on-month increase was 0.3%, lower than both the previous value and expectations [7][8]. - Core CPI increased by 3.0% year-on-year, which is also below both the previous value and expectations [7][20]. Core Goods and Services - Core goods prices showed upward pressure, with a year-on-year increase of 1.5% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, marking the fourth consecutive month of at least 0.2% increase. This reflects the shared burden of new tariffs among businesses, suppliers, and consumers [2][13]. - Specific items affected by tariffs include personal computers (+0.2%), sports goods (+1%), footwear (+0.9%), clothing (+0.7%), and household appliances (+0.8%) [2][13][14]. - Core services prices cooled down, with a core services CPI of 3.5% year-on-year and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, both lower than previous values. Housing costs showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, returning to pre-pandemic levels [3][16][17]. Inflation Trends and Business Responses - Overall, the inflation data for September indicates a moderate recovery, with businesses absorbing some costs from tariffs while also passing on some to consumers. For instance, new car prices increased only 0.8% year-on-year, while used car prices saw a higher increase [4][20][21]. - A survey by the New York Fed indicated that about one-third of manufacturing firms have passed on all tariff costs to customers, while around 45% have only passed on part of the costs, and 25% have absorbed the costs entirely [20][21]. Economic Indicators - The October Markit PMI data showed strong economic expansion, with a composite PMI of 54.8, the highest in six months. The manufacturing PMI was 52.2, and the services PMI was 55.2, indicating robust activity in various sectors [5][22]. - However, consumer confidence slightly declined to 53.6 in October, reflecting concerns over high interest rates and price fatigue [23]. Market Reactions - Following the CPI data release, the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September was reported at 96.7%, reinforcing market expectations of a "soft landing" for the economy. U.S. stock markets saw gains across major indices, with technology stocks leading the rally [5][24][25].