顺周期红利策略
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高波策略承压,看好顺周期红利:产业经济周观点-20250921
Huafu Securities· 2025-09-21 13:10
Group 1 - The report indicates that the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may lead to policy easing in China, resulting in price recovery and accelerated index growth, creating a time window for market structural adjustments [3][8]. - Short-term high volatility strategies are under pressure, while pro-cyclical strategies are relatively favored [4][20]. - The report expresses optimism towards sectors such as insurance, non-ferrous metals, energy, low price-to-book (PB) stocks, Hang Seng Technology, and military trade [4][20]. Group 2 - The report highlights that the Hong Kong stock market has shown a recovery, with the Hang Seng Technology index leading the gains, up by 5.09% [10]. - In the A-share market, the report notes a divergence in performance, with the ChiNext index rising by 2.34% while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.30% [14]. - The advanced manufacturing and technology sectors are leading in terms of performance, while financial and real estate sectors are experiencing deeper declines [25][26]. Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring upcoming data, particularly focusing on China's industrial enterprise profit data and U.S. PCE data [38]. - It notes that the foreign capital index futures positions are showing signs of divergence, with net short positions in IC, IF, and IH converging while IM remains stable [32]. - The report also mentions that the onshore and offshore RMB swap yields are declining, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeding the domestic bond plus swap yield [36].