Workflow
风机行业盈利修复
icon
Search documents
中信建投:风机行业价格拐点明确 板块向上周期开启
智通财经网· 2025-06-16 08:42
Core Viewpoint - The core issue for wind turbine companies is pricing, with expectations of a 5%-10% increase in industry bidding prices by 2025, leading to a potential recovery in gross margins by 2026 [1][2] Industry Analysis - The wind turbine industry is currently experiencing a surplus in capacity, but self-discipline among companies and optimized bidding rules may influence pricing [2] - The average bidding price for wind turbines has stabilized since the second half of 2023, with an anticipated increase of approximately 10% by mid-2025, reaching over 1600 yuan [2] - The industry is expected to enter a new upward cycle, with significant growth in gross margins anticipated for 2026 due to cost reductions [2] Company Recommendations - Key companies recommended for investment include Goldwind Technology, Yunda Co., Sany Renewable Energy, and Mingyang Smart Energy [3] - The wind power generation market is projected to grow from 334.5 billion to nearly 600 billion from 2025 to 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 12% [3] - The domestic wind turbine industry is expected to see a CAGR of 14% during the same period, driven by increased penetration of Chinese companies in international markets [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The wind power generation industry in China is facing significant overcapacity, with expected production capacity exceeding 200 GW by the end of 2024 [3] - The anticipated new wind power installations are approximately 80 GW in 2024 and around 110 GW in 2025, indicating a mismatch between supply and demand [3] Market Participants and Structure - The wind turbine market consists of 3 private enterprises and 8 state-owned enterprises, with Goldwind having no controlling shareholder [3] - In 2024, the top five turbine manufacturers accounted for 72% of the market share, with only Yunda being a state-owned enterprise among them [3]