风电整机反转

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国金证券:风电整机内卷多年终得反转 量价齐升迎接双击
智通财经网· 2025-08-17 22:47
Core Viewpoint - The report from Guojin Securities indicates that the wind turbine manufacturing sector is expected to see significant improvements in gross profit margins by 2026, driven by scale effects and a decrease in expenses, despite limited price recovery in 2024 [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Concerns about the sustainability of strong price and volume performance in the wind power industry for 2025 have led to undervaluation of turbine manufacturers' stock prices, which do not reflect the potential for profit improvement [2]. - The average bidding price for land-based wind turbines has increased by 9% year-on-year to 1552 RMB/kW from January to July 2024, yet stock prices have not adequately responded to this positive price trend [2]. Group 2: Demand Expectations - Multiple forward indicators suggest that domestic land wind demand is likely to achieve year-on-year growth in 2026, countering market fears of a downturn due to the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [3]. - The approved wind power capacity reached 106 GW from January to July 2024, marking a 37% increase year-on-year, indicating optimistic demand for 2026 [3]. - Major state-owned enterprises have initiated a procurement plan for 10 GW of land wind turbines for 2025-2026, reflecting a 67% increase [3]. Group 3: Price Trends - The price recovery of wind turbines is attributed to a mutual commitment between manufacturers and operators, with manufacturers showing a strong willingness to maintain prices after years of price wars [4]. - The optimization of bidding mechanisms, driven by the need for high reliability and reduced operational costs, is expected to support sustained price increases for wind turbines [4]. Group 4: Profitability Outlook - The manufacturing gross profit margin for turbine manufacturers is expected to improve significantly in 2026, with a projected decrease in sales and management expense ratios by 1-2 percentage points due to scale effects [5]. - Despite a potential slowdown in domestic land wind installation growth, overseas markets and offshore wind projects are anticipated to support long-term growth for turbine manufacturers [5]. - The offshore wind installation demand is expected to rise significantly, with new projects and approvals indicating a shift towards higher annual installation rates [5].