【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】固收吕品：利率策略|"反内卷"走弱不改债券弱势，降 息已难成利好 证券研究报告 2025 年 8 月 24 日 分析师：戴志锋 今日预览 执业证书编号: S0740517030004 电话: Email : 今日重点>> 【固收】吕品：利率策略|"反内卷"走弱不改债券弱势，降息已难成利 ■ 好 ■ 【金工】王鹏飞:市场新高下的量价分析 【电新】曾彪:国内盈利修复，双海打开空间 ■ 欢迎关注中泰研究所订阅号 研究分享>> 【策略】徐驰:市场新高后或如何演绎? ■ 晨报内容回顾: 诗务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 晨会聚焦 今日重点 【固收】吕品：利率策略|"反内卷"走弱不改债券弱势,降息已难成利好 本周债市继续偏弱运行，资金面边际收紧，长端利率上行,期限利差走扩。10Y与30Y 国债利率 分别收于 1.7818%和 2.0775%，分别较上周上行 3.5BP 和 3.0BP。10Y-1Y 利差收于 41.1BP，较上 周走扩 3.11BP。 周内走势主要受到权益压制,利率易上难下。周一,权益强势上涨压制债市表现,日内现券一度陡 哨化上行 3-6BP。周二,权益涨势暂缓,债市迎来喘息之机。夹 ...

据南方电网，"十四五"以来，在南方电网经营区域，新能源装机规模增长超3倍，风电、光伏等新能源 稳居第一大电源。 8月8日，金山海上风电场一期项目36台风机全部安装到位。金山海上风电场一期项目是全国首个低于煤 炭标杆电价的竞争性配置海上风电项目，共安装36台单机容量为8.5兆瓦的风机，是当前上海市单机容 量最大的海上风电场。 2025年1-6月，全国风电新增装机51.39GW，同比2024年同期增长98.88%；全国风电发电量5533亿千瓦 时，占全社会用电量11.43%。 花旗指出，基于最新行业数据，认为中国风电新增装机量超出预期，全年按装机口径计算预料按年增长 38%至120GW，电网并网量亦预料突破100GW，高于该行此前预测的90GW。 Wind数据显示，截至8月12日，11家风电零部件上市公司披露了2025年半年报或业绩预告，其中6家实 现或预计实现净利润增幅超100%，行业复苏动能强劲。 中国企业资本联盟副理事长柏文喜对记者表示："上半年风电零部件企业的业绩大增，是政策、市场、 价格等多重因素共振的结果。随着需求持续释放，价格触底反弹，行业利润正快速向产业链上游传 导。" 国金证券发布研报称，25年 ...

据南方电网，"十四五"以来，在南方电网经营区域，新能源装机规模增长超3倍，风电、光伏等新能源 稳居第一大电源。 8月8日，金山海上风电场一期项目36台风机全部安装到位。金山海上风电场一期项目是全国首个低于煤 炭标杆电价的竞争性配置海上风电项目，共安装36台单机容量为8.5兆瓦的风机，是当前上海市单机容 量最大的海上风电场。 智通财经获悉，24Q4以来，国内陆风机组中标价格持续回暖，机构统计今年1-7月陆风机组中标均价为 1552元/kW，较24年全年提升9%，但相关企业股价却并未充分反映这一强势价格表现能够为企业盈利 带来的巨大弹性潜力，机构认为主要由于市场对明年需求不确定性以及本轮价格上涨持续性的担忧，这 也是当前市场对风电板块尤其是整机环节所存在的巨大预期差。 Wind数据显示，截至8月12日，11家风电零部件上市公司披露了2025年半年报或业绩预告，其中6家实 现或预计实现净利润增幅超100%，行业复苏动能强劲。 中国企业资本联盟副理事长柏文喜对记者表示："上半年风电零部件企业的业绩大增，是政策、市场、 价格等多重因素共振的结果。随着需求持续释放，价格触底反弹，行业利润正快速向产业链上游传 导。" 风电 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guojin Securities indicates that the wind turbine manufacturing sector is expected to see significant improvements in gross profit margins by 2026, driven by scale effects and a decrease in expenses, despite limited price recovery in 2024 [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Concerns about the sustainability of strong price and volume performance in the wind power industry for 2025 have led to undervaluation of turbine manufacturers' stock prices, which do not reflect the potential for profit improvement [2]. - The average bidding price for land-based wind turbines has increased by 9% year-on-year to 1552 RMB/kW from January to July 2024, yet stock prices have not adequately responded to this positive price trend [2]. Group 2: Demand Expectations - Multiple forward indicators suggest that domestic land wind demand is likely to achieve year-on-year growth in 2026, countering market fears of a downturn due to the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [3]. - The approved wind power capacity reached 106 GW from January to July 2024, marking a 37% increase year-on-year, indicating optimistic demand for 2026 [3]. - Major state-owned enterprises have initiated a procurement plan for 10 GW of land wind turbines for 2025-2026, reflecting a 67% increase [3]. Group 3: Price Trends - The price recovery of wind turbines is attributed to a mutual commitment between manufacturers and operators, with manufacturers showing a strong willingness to maintain prices after years of price wars [4]. - The optimization of bidding mechanisms, driven by the need for high reliability and reduced operational costs, is expected to support sustained price increases for wind turbines [4]. Group 4: Profitability Outlook - The manufacturing gross profit margin for turbine manufacturers is expected to improve significantly in 2026, with a projected decrease in sales and management expense ratios by 1-2 percentage points due to scale effects [5]. - Despite a potential slowdown in domestic land wind installation growth, overseas markets and offshore wind projects are anticipated to support long-term growth for turbine manufacturers [5]. - The offshore wind installation demand is expected to rise significantly, with new projects and approvals indicating a shift towards higher annual installation rates [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the wind power industry, highlighting strong demand and price recovery, recommending key companies such as Goldwind Technology, Yunda Co., Mingyang Smart Energy, and Sany Heavy Energy for investment [6]. Core Viewpoints - The market's concerns about the sustainability of the wind power industry's strong performance in 2025 have led to undervaluation of turbine manufacturers' stock prices, despite a 9% increase in the average bidding price for land-based wind turbines to 1552 RMB/kW in the first seven months of 2025 [2][13]. - Multiple forward-looking indicators suggest that domestic land wind demand in 2026 is likely to achieve year-on-year growth, contrary to market fears of a downturn due to the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" rush [3][16]. - The price recovery of wind turbines is supported by a dual commitment from manufacturers and project owners, with manufacturers focusing on profitability rather than market share, and owners willing to pay a premium for high-reliability products [4][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Strong Performance of Wind Turbines - The average bidding price for land-based wind turbines has shown a consistent upward trend since Q4 2024, with a 9% increase compared to the entire year of 2024 [2][14]. 2. Demand Expectations - The report indicates that the wind power installation cycle in 2025 is different from previous cycles, with a projected installation of over 110 GW, supported by a significant increase in project approvals [3][30]. - The approved wind power projects reached 106 GW in the first seven months of 2025, marking a 37% year-on-year increase, which is a positive indicator for 2026 demand [3][30]. 3. Price Expectations - The report emphasizes that the price recovery of wind turbines is driven by both demand and a strategic shift among manufacturers towards profitability, supported by a self-regulatory agreement among major manufacturers [4][42]. - The willingness of project owners to accept price increases is attributed to the declining costs of wind projects due to larger turbine sizes and improved reliability [4][44]. 4. Profitability Improvement - The report forecasts that the manufacturing gross margin for wind turbines is expected to improve significantly in 2026, driven by economies of scale and a reduction in sales and management expenses [5][38]. - The anticipated increase in high-priced orders entering the delivery phase will further enhance profitability for turbine manufacturers [5][38]. 5. Long-term Growth from Exports and Offshore Wind - Despite a potential slowdown in domestic land wind installations, the report highlights that overseas markets and domestic offshore wind projects will support long-term growth for turbine manufacturers [6][54]. - The report notes that domestic turbine manufacturers have gained a competitive edge in technology and cost, with significant overseas orders expected to materialize in 2026-2027 [6][54].

Core Viewpoints - The wind power sector is viewed positively for short, medium, and long-term opportunities [3][4] - Short-term logic includes strong half-year reports and optimistic performance outlook for the second half of the year, driven by robust project initiation and revenue growth [4] - Medium-term logic highlights a reversal of three previously negative factors affecting investment sentiment in the wind power sector [4] - Long-term logic emphasizes the competitive advantages of wind power in the context of market-oriented trading and stable industry dynamics [4] Short-term Logic - The wind power sector is expected to benefit from strong performance in the first half of the year, with optimistic growth projections for Q2 [4] - The sector is experiencing a positive demonstration effect from strong stock performance of companies showing earnings improvement [4] Medium-term Logic - The three previously negative factors affecting the wind power sector have shown significant reversal: 1. Wind turbine price wars have shifted from deflation to inflation, with prices recovering since Q4 2024 [4] 2. The certainty of domestic offshore wind project advancement has significantly increased, with project approvals accelerating in 2025 [4] 3. European offshore wind demand has rebounded, with project returns improving due to supportive policies and decreasing interest rates [4] Long-term Logic - Wind power's output characteristics provide significant price advantages in a fully market-oriented trading environment [4] - The competitive landscape is expected to remain stable due to high barriers to entry and a customer base dominated by state-owned enterprises and large international energy groups [4] - There is substantial potential for export substitution across the industry chain, providing additional growth opportunities in overseas markets [4] Demand Outlook - Domestic wind power installations are projected to reach 110 GW in 2025, with significant contributions from both onshore and offshore projects [9][12] - The global wind power installation is expected to maintain a high level in 2026, supported by strong demand both domestically and internationally [5][6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main lines of investment: complete machines, offshore wind, and components [5][45] - Key companies to watch include Goldwind Technology, Envision Energy, Mingyang Smart Energy, and SANY Heavy Energy for complete machines [5] - For offshore wind, companies like Daikin Heavy Industries and Dongfang Cable are highlighted due to their expected performance in the growing market [5] - In the components sector, companies such as Risen Energy and Jinlei Technology are expected to benefit from seasonal production increases and price adjustments [5][70] Competitive Landscape - The wind power industry is characterized by a stable competitive structure, with limited new entrants due to high barriers and established market players [73] - The market share of leading companies has remained relatively stable, indicating a strong competitive position among top players [73][74]