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国泰海通|食饮:破内卷,做增量——餐饮供应链专题报告
Core Insights - The industry is facing intensified competition due to supply-demand mismatch, leading to adjustments by leading companies through product expansion and new channel development, which may result in a rebound if performance exceeds expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - From 2019 to 2022, the industry experienced high prosperity and was valued accordingly. However, since 2023, the industry has seen a decline in prosperity and performance, with pessimistic expectations leading to a decrease in valuations, currently around a PE of 20 times [1]. - The restaurant industry's revenue growth from 2019 to 2024 has significantly slowed to low single digits, putting pressure on the demand side for the frozen food sector, with listed companies showing noticeable deceleration or decline in performance [1][2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent performance pressure in the sector is attributed to a combination of weak demand and increased supply, resulting from optimistic expansion in previous years. This has led to intensified competition, with mainstream manufacturers prioritizing market share over profit, causing increased promotional discounts and higher expenditure [2]. - The capital expenditure in the sector is expected to decline significantly in 2024, and the total number of employees is also beginning to slow down, indicating that the industry is recognizing the supply-demand mismatch and is starting to make necessary adjustments [2]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - Some companies within the sector are actively seeking solutions to break the current stagnation by expanding product categories, launching new products, and exploring emerging channels to find new growth opportunities [3].