人民币加速升值，3 月如何布局 西部研究月度金股报告系列（2026 年 3 月） 核心结论 1、2026 中国有望回归 2019 "价值投资元年" （1）2018 年中国正式步入工业化成熟期，制造业强劲的对外出口能力，赚取大 量稳定的现金流。由此 A 股孕育出了 2019-22 年"价值投资"的土壤：大量拥 有稳定现金流的消费（茅指数）和制造（宁组合）得到系统性重估。 （2）《人民币升值是 2026 繁荣的契机》提示：美联储降息后人民币回归长 期升值趋势，正驱动跨境资本加速回流。中国的制造和消费行业将再次拥有 大量稳定的现金流，也将重获"价值投资者"的青睐。 2、巴菲特"价值投资"的基础，是稳定现金流的"大 DCF 资产" 1945 年开始美国正式进入工业化成熟期，制造业强劲的对外出口能力，赚取大 量稳定的现金流。由此美股孕育出了巴菲特"价值投资"的土壤：大量拥有稳定 现金流且 CAPEX 较低的"大 DCF 资产"。 策略月报 巴菲特"价值投资"的理念是以合理价格买入现金流充沛的优质公司。上世 纪 60 年代以来，巴菲特重仓的美国运通/华盛顿邮报/可口可乐/苹果等公司， 都是现金流充裕且 CAPEX 较低的 ...

Group 1 - Southbound funds increased their holdings in China Silicon Corporation (01735.HK) by 199,000 shares on February 23 [1] - Over the past five trading days, there were four days of net increases in holdings by southbound funds, totaling 6.107 million shares [1] - In the last 20 trading days, there were 14 days of net increases, amounting to 19.51 million shares [1] - Currently, southbound funds hold 15.6 million shares of China Silicon Corporation, representing 3.67% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] Group 2 - China Silicon Corporation, formerly known as China Holdings Group Limited, primarily engages in renewable energy and engineering, procurement, and construction businesses [2] - The company operates through five business segments, including renewable energy and engineering, green building and related services, health and medical services, food supply chain services, and smart energy management services [2] - The renewable energy and engineering segment focuses on the production and sales of photovoltaic products, while the green building segment provides construction and property management services [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that southbound funds have increased their holdings in China National Nuclear Corporation (01735.HK) by 2.219 million shares on February 13, with a total net increase of 10.05 million shares over the past five trading days [1] - Over the last 20 trading days, southbound funds have increased their holdings on 14 days, resulting in a cumulative net increase of 20.765 million shares [1] - As of now, southbound funds hold 154 million shares of China National Nuclear Corporation, accounting for 3.64% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] Group 2 - China National Nuclear Corporation is primarily engaged in the renewable energy and engineering, procurement, and construction business [1] - The company operates through five business segments, including renewable energy and engineering, green building and related services, health and medical services, food supply chain services, and smart energy management services [1] - The renewable energy and engineering segment focuses on the production and sales of photovoltaic products, while the green building segment provides construction and property management services [1]

Core Viewpoint - The restaurant supply chain sector is showing significant signs of recovery, with expectations for substantial sales improvement in 2026 due to a combination of marginal recovery, the timing of the Spring Festival, and low base effects [1] Group 1: Industry Recovery Signals - The restaurant industry's recovery is indicated by a rise in revenue growth, with Q4 2025 restaurant income growth accelerating to 3.0%, up from 1.6 percentage points in Q3 2025, suggesting improved consumer demand [2] - The introduction of new products and channels is expected to drive growth, with companies innovating and expanding into overseas markets [2] - The competitive landscape is stabilizing, with price competition diminishing and some companies beginning to cut costs to improve profitability, supported by a recovering Consumer Price Index (CPI) [2] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The condiment sector is expected to benefit from improved restaurant channel dynamics, with price signals showing positive trends as retail prices for soy sauce have started to recover [3] - The frozen food sector is anticipated to reach a turning point in 2026, characterized by reduced competition and demand recovery, with a clear expectation that the price war will lose its effectiveness [4] - The light meal chain sector has stabilized after a period of store closures, with expectations for steady store numbers in 2026 and early signs of success in exploring new growth avenues [5]

Core Viewpoint - Southbound funds have increased their holdings in China Silicon Corporation (01735.HK) by 2.597 million shares on February 11, indicating a positive trend in investor sentiment towards the company [1] Group 1: Southbound Fund Activity - Over the past five trading days, southbound funds have increased their holdings on four occasions, with a total net increase of 8.277 million shares [1] - In the last twenty trading days, there have been fifteen days of net increases, totaling 21.701 million shares [1] - Currently, southbound funds hold 15.2 million shares of China Silicon Corporation, representing 3.59% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] Group 2: Company Overview - China Silicon Corporation, formerly known as China Silicon Holdings Group Limited, is primarily engaged in the renewable energy and engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) business [1] - The company operates through five business segments, including renewable energy and engineering, green building and related services, health and medical services, food supply chain services, and smart energy management services [1] - The renewable energy and engineering segment focuses on the production and sales of photovoltaic products, while the green building segment provides construction and property management services [1]

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，受2025Q4春节错峰不利影响，2025Q4大众品基本面预计环 比走弱，若抛开春节季节性影响仅观察9~11月，大众品行业需求有企稳迹象。成本费用端看，多数原 材料成本红利延续但有所收窄，行业竞争虽然维持较高强度但边际已经趋缓。餐供板块是大众品板块中 少有的25Q4基本面环比Q3改善的，主要受益经销商补库以及竞争缓和。 饮料：行业竞争激烈，企业表现分化。 餐饮供应链：2025Q4需求平淡但细分赛道表现亮眼。 2025Q4下游餐饮景气度整体平淡，但可观察到部分细分赛道(例如火锅)受旺季影响有所改善，且由于春 节错期基数影响，预计各企业收入端表现分化。盈利端，预计25Q4猪肉、面粉、白糖等多数原料价格 维持偏低位震荡，但已有油脂、进口乳制品等价格上涨，此外行业价格战失效逐渐成为共识，竞争趋缓 可期。 零食：2025Q4零食板块基本面环比走弱，2026Q1受益春节备货有望环比走高。 25Q4因春节错峰不利影响、新品类及新渠道成长红利走弱以及部分原料成本高企，预计零食板块单季 度基本面环比走弱。考虑到2026Q1春节零食礼盒备货驱动以及部分原料成本高位走低，预计零食板块 基本面环 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that southbound funds have increased their holdings in China National Nuclear Corporation (01735.HK) by 5.083 million shares on February 9, 2026, with a total of 14.9 million shares held, accounting for 3.53% of the company's issued ordinary shares [1][2] - Over the past 5 trading days, there were 2 days of net increases in holdings by southbound funds, totaling 4.819 million shares [1][2] - In the last 20 trading days, there were 15 days of net increases, with a cumulative net increase of 20.182 million shares [1][2] Group 2 - China National Nuclear Corporation operates primarily in the renewable energy and engineering, procurement, and construction sectors, with five business segments [2] - The renewable energy and engineering segment focuses on the production and sales of photovoltaic products, as well as engineering, procurement, and construction services [2] - The company also engages in green building, healthcare consulting, food supply chain services, and smart energy management services [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector has shown a cumulative increase of 4.48% this week, with A-shares rising by 4.44%, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 5.77 percentage points [1]. - The report highlights the ongoing differentiation in the fundamentals of various categories, with liquor outperforming food and beverages [2]. - Key investment recommendations include leading companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao in the liquor segment, as well as Yili in dairy and Nongfu Spring in beverages [2][3]. Summary by Sections Liquor - The report notes a gradual increase in sales leading up to the Spring Festival, with Kweichow Moutai performing particularly well. It suggests that the overall decline in sales is expected to narrow to around 10% during the festive period [10]. - Investment recommendations include Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, with a focus on their growth potential and market recovery [10][11]. Beer - The beer industry is experiencing healthy inventory levels, with expectations for demand recovery. The report recommends Yanjing Beer and China Resources Beer as key players to watch [11]. Snacks - The report emphasizes the importance of strong alpha stocks in the snack category, particularly focusing on the growth potential of konjac snacks. Leading companies like Wei Long and Yan Jin Pu Zi are highlighted for their innovative product offerings [12][18]. Dairy - The dairy sector is seeing orderly preparations for the Spring Festival, with a recommendation for Yili as a leading company with a favorable valuation margin. The report anticipates a gradual recovery in demand and a potential balance in supply and demand by mid-2026 [14]. Beverages - The beverage segment is primarily focused on inventory reduction during the off-season, with stable preparations for the Spring Festival. The report continues to recommend Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage for their growth strategies [15]. Supply Chain - The report discusses the public consultation on national standards for prepared dishes, which may accelerate the clearing of inefficient suppliers in the industry. Recommendations include leading companies like Yihai International and Haidilao [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][18] Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to perform well in 2026, driven by several key themes including cost benefits, efficiency improvements, innovation, and potential recovery opportunities in the liquor segment [3][10][11] - The report highlights the ongoing differentiation in the fundamentals of various categories, with liquor outperforming food and beverages [2][10] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor - The report indicates that the sales of liquor, particularly high-end brands like Moutai, are showing positive trends as the Spring Festival approaches, with Moutai expected to see double-digit growth [2][10] - Investment recommendations include Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, with a focus on brands that are gaining market share despite overall market challenges [2][10][11] Beer - The beer industry is currently managing inventory well and is poised for recovery as demand is expected to improve [11] - Recommended companies include Yanjing Beer and China Resources Beer, which are seen as strong players in the market [11] Snacks - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong growth potential in the snack sector, particularly those involved in konjac products, which are expected to continue their growth trajectory [12][18] - Key players in this segment include Weidong and Yanjinpuzi, which are noted for their innovative product offerings [12][18] Prepared Dishes - The report discusses the public consultation on national standards for prepared dishes, which may lead to a clearer industry structure and the elimination of less compliant players [13][14] - Recommended companies in this space include Yihai International and Haidilao, which are expected to benefit from improved compliance and operational efficiency [13][14] Dairy Products - The dairy sector is experiencing a steady recovery, with a focus on leading companies like Yili, which are expected to benefit from improved margins and reduced inventory pressures [14][15] - The report suggests that the demand for dairy products will continue to improve, particularly in the second half of 2026 [14][15] Beverages - The beverage sector is currently in a seasonal inventory reduction phase, with stable preparations for the Spring Festival [15] - Companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage are highlighted for their strong operational performance and market expansion strategies [15][16]

智通财经APP获悉，开源证券发布研报称，近期白酒板块在政策、估值、基本面共振下强势上涨，行业 处于周期底部，需求复苏与政策优化支撑可持续性预期。其底部修复逻辑同样适用于啤酒、调味品等处 于双底部的食品饮料子行业。2026年大众品投资可聚焦零食、原奶/乳制品及餐饮供应链三大方向。需 关注经济、政策及需求复苏不及预期等风险。 周期底部复苏逻辑明确，看好白酒板块可持续性上涨 该行认为本轮白酒板块上涨具备可持续性，当前行业已处于周期底部区域，基本面向上修复逻辑清晰。 首先，白酒需求端呈现缓慢复苏态势，高端白酒批价回落至合理区间后，有效激发了真实消费需求，叠 加春节旺季临近，家庭聚会、礼品馈赠等场景需求集中释放，价格下行带来的消费提振效应逐步显现； 其次，禁酒令进行纠偏后，政策负面影响边际递减，从近期消费场景恢复情况来看，政策对白酒核心消 费需求的扰动持续减弱，市场预期趋于稳定；再次，随着宏观经济逐步企稳、促消费政策持续出台，整 体消费市场活力有望修复，白酒行业有望实现企稳回升。 伴随后续需求回暖和政策加码，多个子行业有望复制底部修复行情 板块底部修复逻辑并非白酒板块独有，可延伸至整个食品饮料行业。当前啤酒、调味品、速 ...