Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Newly - estimated global sugar surplus in the new season has been mostly raised, with sugar production in Thailand and India recovering, which will have a key impact on the supply side. India is expected to resume sugar exports in the 2025/26 season, with a preliminary market expectation of 200 million tons. In the domestic market, 26 sugar mills in Mongolia and Xinjiang have started production in the 2025/26 season, with an expected total output of about 1.4 million tons, and short - term northern beet sugar supply will gradually increase. China's sugar imports in September 2025 were 550,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 280,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 35.8%. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 3.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 270,000 tons or 9.4%. The import of sugar in the third quarter significantly accelerated. According to the forecast of the Market Early - Warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, China's total imports this year will exceed 5 million tons, and with the opening of the out - of - quota window for imported sugar, the pressure of later imports remains obvious. Downstream demand is in a seasonal decline, and it is expected that the demand for refined sugar and beverages will decrease later. However, the futures price is supported by cost, and the price is expected to fluctuate mainly [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract was 5,445 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan; the main contract position was 401,598 lots, a decrease of 6,562 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts was 7,795, a decrease of 390; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions was - 79,016 lots; the total forecast of effective warehouse receipts for sugar was 586, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota was 4,223 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37 yuan; the estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,282 yuan/ton; the estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,356 yuan/ton; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5,725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the spot price in Nanning was 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price in Liuzhou was 5,780 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares; the cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the national sugar sales rate was 89.9%; the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 9.9998 million tons; the monthly sugar import volume was 550,000 tons, a decrease of 280,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - Brazil's total sugar exports were 3.2458 million tons, a decrease of 0.4982 million tons; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,367 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 251 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,310 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 177 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 454,100 tons, an increase of 44,100 tons; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.7758 million tons, a decrease of 20,800 tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 9.17%, an increase of 0.91%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar was 9.22%, an increase of 0.94%; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 7.72%, a decrease of 0.73%; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar was 7.26%, a decrease of 0.02% [2] Industry News - According to data released by Brazilian shipping agency Williams, as of the week ending October 22, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 86, compared with 90 the previous week. The amount of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports was 3.384 million tons, compared with 3.7272 million tons the previous week [2]