餐饮行业创新与可持续发展
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后外卖大战时代:创伤、修复与重建
远川研究所· 2025-10-27 13:04
Core Insights - The recent food delivery war has led to a significant decline in the restaurant industry's profitability, with 75% of new orders priced below 15 yuan, primarily in beverages, and in-store dining prices dropping to levels seen a decade ago [1][6] - The intense competition has resulted in a false sense of prosperity, with platforms heavily subsidizing orders, ultimately harming the industry and leading to a stagnation in revenue growth [1][5] Group 1: Industry Impact - The food delivery platforms collectively spent at least 300 billion yuan in the second quarter of this year, which is a conservative estimate, as the actual figure may be higher [6] - Major platforms like JD and Meituan reported significant profit declines, with JD's net profit down 50.8% and Meituan's down 89%, while marketing expenses surged [6][10] - The market has seen a split where delivery orders surged by four times, but in-store dining has drastically declined, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [7][10] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The food delivery market is characterized by limited growth potential, as consumer demand is primarily driven by necessity rather than financial incentives, leading to resource wastage [9] - The intense price competition has forced restaurants into a dilemma of choosing between maintaining order volume or preserving profit margins, with many small businesses unable to cope [9][10] - The oversaturation of the market has led to a significant increase in the closure rate of restaurants, with a projected 40% turnover in 2024 [21][24] Group 3: Future Outlook - The industry is now at a critical juncture where it must find a path back to sustainable growth, moving away from price wars and focusing on quality and service innovation [14][19] - Platforms are beginning to adjust their strategies, with a shift towards supporting quality merchants and reducing unnecessary competition [19][22] - The recent announcement of additional subsidies by Meituan aims to help quality merchants stabilize their operations and recover from the impacts of the price war [24][26]