转自：新华财经 编辑：林郑宏 新华财经上海10月14日电 中信证券研报分析认为，本届"双11"大促，京东、抖音电商的正式销售期均 有明显提前，而天猫则拖长结束周期，"双11"促销前后绵延超过1个月，一方面体现出平台对于促销的 渴求与加码，另一方面也削弱了消费者对于大促的感知与购买冲动。伴随着"百亿补贴"等"天天低价"栏 目成为消费者线上购物的常态化体验，大促在折扣深度方面所提供的消费脉冲效应预计将边际减弱。在 此背景下，双11大促的全周期销售数据实则就是平台自身现阶段发展动能的直接体现。相较于总量数据 的增速关注，更建议关注平台在用户策略、品类策略等层面的结构性表现。 从促销的力度与形式来看，各平台多数在传统的"满300减50"的优惠之外，提供"单件立减"的简单策略 以降低消费者加入大促的门槛、优化用户体验，例如天猫、抖音均提供"单件85折"的优惠政策。总体来 看，各平台面向全口径用户提供的基本优惠力度在83折～85折左右、差别不大，且近几年的大促季基本 维持这一水平。 在面向全口径用户提供的券包之外，京东、阿里均面向核心用户提供额外的满减券，以增强购买能力更 强的VIP用户转化效率。例如，阿里为88VIP、 ...

Group 1: Local Life and E-commerce - The competition in local life services is expected to continue in Q4 2025, with major platforms like Meituan, JD, and Alibaba intensifying their investments in delivery services and instant retail [2][3] - In Q2 2025, Meituan, JD, and Alibaba reported significant losses in local life services, but these losses are anticipated to peak in Q3 due to increased summer demand and promotional activities [2][3] - The e-commerce sector is experiencing reduced competitive pressure, with online retail sales reaching 1.02 trillion yuan in August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [4] Group 2: Tourism and Hospitality - The tourism sector is witnessing a recovery, with a 7% year-on-year increase in cross-regional travel during the National Day holiday, indicating a shift in traveler preferences towards experiential travel [7][8] - Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) are benefiting from the overall growth in tourism, with major players maintaining stable performance despite increased competition from new entrants [7] - The hotel industry is expected to reach a bottoming out phase, with leading companies like Jinjiang and Huazhu showing resilience and potential for profit recovery in Q4 2025 [10][11] Group 3: Retail and Consumer Goods - The offline retail sector is undergoing significant transformations, with supermarkets like Yonghui Supermarket expected to complete major store renovations, leading to improved profitability [9] - The retail landscape is shifting towards quality retail, with community stores like convenience stores maintaining high growth rates, while traditional department stores face slower growth [9] - The mother and baby retail sector is benefiting from supportive government policies and adjustments in store formats, leading to a notable recovery in same-store sales [14] Group 4: Cross-border E-commerce - Cross-border e-commerce is experiencing profit differentiation due to external factors like tariffs, with platform-based companies showing stable performance while product-based companies seek innovative advantages [12][13] - The sales peak for cross-border e-commerce is anticipated in the second half of 2025, driven by promotional events like Amazon's Prime Day, which saw a 30.3% increase in online spending [12][13] Group 5: Recommendations - Key investment targets include Yonghui Supermarket, Alibaba, Meituan, and various hotel chains such as Jinjiang and Huazhu, reflecting a diversified approach across sectors [5]

网购遇到"货不对板""虚假宣传""售后失联"，或外卖吃到异物、在线会员自动续费未告知，第一步先通 过黑猫投诉启动维权。操作时打开微信小程序、App或官网，选择对应分类，按模板填写订单号、问题 描述，上传订单截图、商品瑕疵照片、客服聊天记录等证据，提交后当天即可收到受理通知。入驻商家 通常8小时内会联系协商，近70%的简单纠纷能在此环节解决。 （2）线下消费：留存凭证是关键，12315直接介入 面对网购货不对板、教育机构跑路、租房扣押金等纠纷，很多人因不懂渠道、不会操作陷入"维权难"。 其实，只要按"场景选渠道、按步骤存证据、按逻辑推进"，普通人也能高效解决问题。以下从高频维权 场景出发，拆解全流程操作方法，同时解答大家最关心的几个关键问题，帮你避开弯路、快速维权。 一、消费类纠纷：从快速响应到强制约束 消费纠纷 【下载黑猫投诉客户端】是最常见的维权场景，涵盖网购、外卖、线下购物等，核心是"先快 速撬动商家回应，再用官方渠道兜底"，其中黑猫投诉是高效启动入口。 互联网消费：黑猫投诉优先 线下购物遇到"质量问题拒退换""强制消费"，需第一时间留存购物小票、商品标签、现场照片（如超市 过期食品的货架标签），若有沟通 ...

第一曲线（遗传）：如美团的"三高三低"战略、字节跳动的推荐引擎； 小S曲线（变异）：外卖、抖音、懂车帝等业务，都是从主航道里"分形"出来的嫩芽； 市场选择（隔离）：当某条嫩芽突破十倍速增长阈值（如抖音的用户增速），企业会切断资源供给，让它独立生长。 "为什么别人总能从主业里挖出新金矿，而你的尝试却像无根浮萍？"这问题像一粒种子，埋在无数创业者的心底。答案藏在生物学的显微镜下：创新不是凭 空布局，而是像树木分形生长——从根系抽出新枝，用最小单元的变异长出第二棵参天大树。 一、分形创新是什么？别再当"多元化赌徒"了 有个和尚讲过一个死循环故事："从前有座山，山里有座庙，庙里有两个和尚……"看似荒诞，实则藏着分形创新的密码：整体与局部的自相似性。 达尔文在《人类的由来》里揭示了自然界的秘密：新物种不是突然出现的，而是遗传+变异+自然选择的产物。商业世界同样适用： 有个创业者感慨："分形创新像给大树嫁接新枝——根系不变，但能长出完全不同的树冠。" 二、如何实践分形创新？四步打造"认知繁殖力" 3. 狠心选优胜：给"十倍速苗子"施肥 当某条小S曲线出现爆发迹象（如用户增长、利润空间），立刻倾斜资源。瑞幸咖啡发现"茶饮" ...

当你走进店里，感受便会截然不同，服务员们的问候声，隔壁餐桌的嬉笑声，明厨明档油锅里的滋啦 声，可以在一瞬间让你体会到线下生活的美好；当食物端上餐桌，你一边细细品味色香味的差异，一边 大快朵颐地享受美食，这是外卖永远无法赋予的烟火气，更是生活仪式感的回归。 除了美食，线下生活带来的真实社交，也远比朋友圈里点赞更加拉近彼此的距离。小陈告诉我，国庆期 间他前往旅游的城市刚好是一位客户的家乡，于是两人约好了见面喝杯咖啡，从"在线状态"变为"奔现 状态"，这种距离的拉近不仅是物理上的，更是心理上的。一次拥抱、一顿火锅，一场面对面的交流， 你会发现，对方眉飞色舞的神态，远比线上的十个、一百个表情包更加生动，也更富有人情味。 即便你选择在黄金周做一枚"宅男""宅女"，其实也可以感受线下生活的烟火气，就好比你每天上班路上 无数次经过的一片绿地、一处街景，平日只是你通勤路上的一个坐标或是一块背景板，何不趁着假期到 楼下亲自走上去踩一踩，看一看，当你真正踏上那块绿地，脚底传来的无论是草地的柔软或是石板的坚 硬，那都是大自然的气息，这一刻，你与脚下的这片土地也建立起了真实的联系。 11 屋 即即 "黄金周" N 重新展区线下载运的 ...

不少人抱怨："投诉了半天，却没人理我。" 其实并不是投诉本身没用，而是选错了渠道，或者忽视了 一些细节，导致问题迟迟没有推进。要想真正推动结果，就要明白投诉为什么会"卡住"，以及不同渠道 的差别在哪里。 投诉为何常常"没下文"？ 最典型的原因有两类： 12315 全国消费维权平台（www.12315.cn）由市场监管部门主管，是最权威的渠道，适合涉及三包服 务、价格欺诈、虚假宣传等严重问题。缺点是投诉处理时间通常较长。 各地消费者协会 （www.cca.org.cn）则更强调调解，适合教育培训、预付卡类的纠纷。效率取决于双方配合，周期通常 比平台更长。 跨行业问题该找谁？ 不少消费纠纷其实跨出了单一领域： 网络扣费、宽带故障，往往需要工信部门督促运营商； 避免投诉"失联"，核心就在于：证据要全，路径要对。 平台内：最快，但容易遇到规则限制 电商购物、外卖、出行订票等场景，最直接的办法就是通过订单里的"售后"或"申诉"入口提交。一般几 天内就会有反馈。 但平台的规则是预先设定好的，能解决常见的退货退款、配送延误，却难以处理虚 假宣传、预付卡退费等复杂问题。 黑猫投诉 【下载黑猫投诉客户端】：让进度可见 当消费者 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the urgent need for establishing service management standards for food delivery platforms to ensure consumer safety and promote healthy industry development [3][9]. Group 1: Market Overview - The food delivery market in China is projected to exceed 1.27 trillion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, accounting for 22.8% of the national catering revenue [3]. - As of August this year, the daily order peak for food delivery has surpassed 200 million, doubling compared to 2024 [3]. Group 2: Challenges and Requirements - The rapid growth of the food delivery industry has raised higher demands for market competition order, food safety, and the protection of stakeholders' rights [4]. - There is a pressing need to strengthen the construction of delivery standards, as the absence of clear standards has led to controversies, particularly regarding pre-prepared dishes [5][6]. Group 3: Focus Areas for Standard Development - Food safety remains the top priority, with a reported compliance rate of 97.3% in food safety inspections conducted by the market regulatory authority in 2024 [7]. - The article highlights the importance of strict enforcement of food safety responsibilities and the need for platforms to manage merchants effectively, including qualification reviews and food safety training [7]. Group 4: Industry Dynamics - The food delivery market is expected to reach 1.4 trillion yuan this year, but signs of stagnation in growth without revenue increase are emerging [8]. - Labor rights protection for delivery workers is also a critical area, as competition intensifies and existing measures for worker protection still have significant room for improvement [8]. Group 5: Conclusion - The establishment of standards is urgent for the food delivery industry, ensuring food safety and service quality for consumers while providing a stable and predictable policy environment for related enterprises [9].

Core Insights - The establishment of service management standards for food delivery platforms is crucial for ensuring food safety and service quality for consumers, while providing a stable policy environment for related enterprises [1][6] - The Chinese food delivery market is projected to exceed 1.27 trillion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, accounting for 22.8% of the national catering revenue [1] Group 1: Industry Growth and Challenges - The food delivery industry in China is experiencing strong growth, with daily order peaks surpassing 200 million as of August 2023, doubling compared to 2024 [1] - Despite the growth, there are emerging challenges such as market competition, food safety, and the protection of stakeholders' rights that need to be addressed [2] Group 2: Standardization and Implementation - The rapid development of the food delivery industry necessitates the swift establishment of standards to ensure safety and quality, particularly in light of recent controversies surrounding pre-prepared foods [3] - The implementation of food delivery standards is complex, involving multiple stakeholders including food service providers, delivery platforms, and consumers [3] Group 3: Food Safety and Compliance - The food safety inspection rate for delivery food was reported at 97.3% in 2024, indicating a high compliance level, but the absolute number of non-compliant orders remains significant [4] - The emphasis on strict food safety responsibilities for platforms is highlighted, including the need for thorough merchant qualification and food safety training processes [4] Group 4: Labor Rights and Market Dynamics - The food delivery market is expected to reach 1.4 trillion yuan in 2024, but signs of stagnation in revenue growth are emerging despite increased market size [5] - Labor rights for delivery personnel remain a concern, with existing protections needing further enhancement as competition intensifies [5]

Core Insights - The fierce competition in the food delivery market is significantly impacting the restaurant industry, with major platforms like Taobao and Meituan achieving daily order peaks of 120 million and 100 million respectively under a subsidy scale of 80 billion [1]. Industry Overview - The current state of the restaurant market is not optimistic, with intensified price wars leading to 47.8% of ongoing restaurant operators reducing their average prices in 2024. Over 80% of restaurants with an average price above 100 yuan are experiencing a decline in customer spending [4]. - The number of restaurant closures in 2024 has risen to 4.09 million, with a closure rate of 61.2%, surpassing the figures from 2023 [4]. Cost Management - Many restaurant owners are focusing on cost-cutting measures, including reducing staff and downgrading renovations, as their revenues and profits are declining [5]. - Lowering rental costs for restaurants has become increasingly important in this challenging environment [6]. Rental Market Dynamics - There is a noticeable downward trend in restaurant rental costs, particularly outside of first-tier cities, although the decline is not yet significant. In first-tier cities, rental prices remain stable or slightly increase [7]. - The restaurant industry in first-tier cities is contracting, with Beijing's restaurant revenue declining by 3.6% to 79.2 billion yuan and Shanghai's by 2.9% to 114.195 billion yuan in the first seven months [7][8]. Community Restaurant Impact - Community restaurants are particularly affected, as the expansion of food delivery services has diverted customers away from physical locations, impacting their profitability [9]. - There is a belief that the rental premium should now be allocated to food delivery platforms due to the shift in consumer behavior from offline to online [10]. Ongoing Negotiations - The current period is critical for negotiations between property owners and restaurant operators, with many restaurant brands reporting lower rental costs compared to previous years, although property owners still hope for price increases [11][14]. - The ongoing survival challenges in the restaurant sector, exacerbated by the food delivery competition, may accelerate the decline in rental prices, potentially aiding some restaurant owners [14].

Core Insights - The fierce competition in the food delivery market is significantly transforming the restaurant industry [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The restaurant market is facing a bleak outlook, with intensified price wars leading to a decline in average spending per customer [7] - In 2024, 47.8% of continuously operating restaurants have lowered their average price, with over 80% of restaurants with an average price above 100 yuan experiencing a drop in customer spending [7] - The number of restaurant closures in 2024 has risen to 4.09 million, with a closure rate of 61.2%, exceeding the figures from 2023 [7] Group 2: Impact on Rent - The need to reduce rental costs for restaurants has become increasingly critical due to declining revenues [9] - There is a noticeable downward trend in rental prices, particularly in non-first-tier cities, although first-tier city rents remain stable or slightly increase [10] - In the first seven months of the year, Beijing's restaurant revenue decreased by 3.6% to 79.2 billion yuan, while Shanghai's revenue fell by 2.9% to 114.195 billion yuan [10][11] Group 3: Community Restaurants - Community restaurants are particularly affected, as the expansion of food delivery services has diverted customers away from physical locations [12] - The founder of a rapidly expanding coffee brand noted that the significant subsidies in the delivery market have impacted the profitability of community restaurants [12] - There is an ongoing negotiation phase between property owners and restaurant operators regarding rental agreements, with expectations of faster rent reductions due to the current survival challenges in the restaurant sector [14][17]