Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoint - Imported corn is rapidly increasing, and import auctions address concerns about the shortage of high - quality grains due to grain quality differentiation. Corn sales may slow down in the later stage. Corn is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended that grain - using enterprises purchase spot goods as needed and maintain a safe reserve, while traders should buy low and sell high [5]. 3. Summary of Each Part Market Price and Basis - The corn main 2603 contract rebounded after a short - term continuous adjustment. The spot price was stable, with the Pingcang price of corn in Bayuquan at 2,290 yuan/ton and the arrival price of corn at Shekou Port dropping from 2,430 yuan/ton to 2,420 yuan/ton. The corn basis fluctuated and strengthened slightly, and the discount of the futures price widened. The starch main 2603 contract stabilized and rebounded. The starch price of Weifang Jinyu was 2,800 yuan/ton, and the basis fluctuated [3]. Supply - related Factors - **New Grain Sales**: Imported corn invitation - bidding sales continued, curbing the bullish sentiment in the market and reducing the enthusiasm of downstream procurement. New grain sales were still relatively fast, but slowed down in some areas. As of December 25, the national grain sales progress was 45%, 4% faster than the same period last year; in Northeast China, it was 44%, 8% faster; in North China, it was 40%, 1% slower; in Northwest China, it was 61%, the same as last year. With the auction of imported corn and the approaching of holidays, the grain sales progress slowed down [3]. - **Inventory**: As of December 19, the corn inventory in northern ports was 1.803 million tons, slightly increasing month - on - month and significantly lower than the same period last year; the weekly shipping volume was 827,000 tons, rising to a high in recent years. The domestic - trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 224,000 tons, and the foreign - trade corn inventory was 278,000 tons, both increasing month - on - month due to a large increase in imports. The inventories of downstream deep - processing and feed enterprises continued to increase. As of December 26, the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises was 3.378 million tons, continuously rising but lower than the same period last year; the corn inventory of feed enterprises was 29.88 days, slightly decreasing month - on - month [3]. - **Import**: The wheat - corn price difference remained at a high level, making substitution unfeasible. In November, China's corn imports increased significantly again. According to customs data, 555,000 tons of corn were imported in November, a 55% month - on - month increase and an 85% year - on - year increase; from January to November, the cumulative import volume was 1.847 million tons, a 86.3% year - on - year decrease. Imports of barley and wheat also increased. The increase in domestic corn imports and auctions supplemented the market's expectation of a shortage of high - quality grains, and imports may continue to increase in the later stage [4]. - **External Market**: The U.S. corn in the external market rebounded recently. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's December supply - demand report increased U.S. corn exports and reduced its ending inventory, but overall, there was still pressure of increased production and inventory compared with last year. The global ending inventory of corn was slightly reduced, a 4.85% year - on - year decrease [4]. Demand - related Factors - **Feed Demand**: The pig price was low, and pig farming continued to suffer large losses. As of December 26, the profit of purchasing piglets for farming was - 162.8 yuan per head, and the loss continued to narrow; the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 130.11 yuan per head, and the loss also narrowed. The production capacity of sows continued to decline. In October, the national inventory of sows was 39.9 million, 450,000 less than the previous month, and the reduction rate increased. In November, large - scale farms reduced the inventory of sows, the sales volume of piglets declined, but the inventory of commercial pigs increased. It was difficult for the pig inventory to decline in the fourth quarter. In the poultry sector, the egg price was low, and poultry farming continued to suffer losses; in November, the sales volume of chicken chicks stabilized, and the culling of old chickens continued to increase; in November, the inventory of laying hens decreased slightly again. Feed demand may slow down. In November, the national industrial feed output was 28.73 million tons, decreasing month - on - month and increasing 6% year - on - year. If losses continue in the later stage, it may affect spring replenishment and accelerate capacity reduction [5]. - **Deep - processing Demand**: The demand of deep - processing enterprises was insufficient. The operating rate of starch processing enterprises continued to decline. As of December 26, the operating rate of starch processing enterprises was 60.46%, continuing to decline month - on - month. The starch inventory was 1.102 million tons, increasing month - on - month. Alcohol processing enterprises continued to suffer losses, and the operating rate dropped to 65.02%. The operating rate of downstream starch sugar enterprises rebounded, and the operating rate of paper - making enterprises was relatively strong [5].