Macro Overview - The external uncertainty remains high, with the US labor market showing short-term strength and inflation continuing to moderate [4] - In January, the US non-farm payroll increased by 130,000, significantly exceeding the expected 65,000, but this should not be interpreted as a robust labor market recovery [4] - January inflation in the US was mild and below expectations, indicating that the impact of tariffs on inflation may be nearing its peak, although the US-Iran conflict could lead to rising oil prices, adding uncertainty to the inflation outlook [4] - The actual reduction in tariffs is limited, and policy uncertainty is rising, with the Trump administration's new 15% tax rate showing minimal decline compared to previous rates [4] Domestic Economic Indicators - Consumer willingness to spend during the Spring Festival is strong, but overall consumption power still requires policy support [4] - The longest Spring Festival holiday in history has led to a significant increase in travel and tourism revenue, indicating strong consumer sentiment [4] - However, per capita consumption expenditure remains stable, and the service sector PMI is weaker than in previous years, suggesting that consumption power still needs policy backing [4] Policy and Economic Growth - The government maintains a focus on high-quality development, with fiscal spending remaining necessary [4] - The economic growth target for the upcoming Two Sessions is set at 4.6% to 5%, reflecting a commitment to high-quality economic development [4] - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a 4% growth rate, with a focus on technology innovation and industrial upgrades, while also increasing support for livelihood and employment sectors [4] A-share Strategy - The strategy for A-shares is to remain cautious, with a focus on large-cap and cyclical stocks [4] - The domestic economic fundamentals show a decline in investment and consumption, while price indicators are stabilizing [4] - The A-share trading volume has rebounded, but the profit-making effect remains weak [4] - The external environment is influenced by geopolitical risks from Trump, but the impact on the domestic market is limited [4] Asset Allocation Views - The current asset allocation for A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, interest rate bonds, credit bonds, and US stocks is neutral [6] - The allocation for convertible bonds is relatively cautious, while the outlook for US bonds and Japanese stocks is neutral to optimistic [6] - The allocation for gold remains neutral, while oil is viewed with caution [6]