上 市 公 司 纺织服饰 2025 年 08 月 27 日 诺邦股份 (603238) ——25H1 利润同比高增长 48%，盈利双击式弹性巨大 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 26 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 21.42 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 21.70/8.77 | | 市净率 | 2.7 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 1.40 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 3,802 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,868.38/12,473.17 | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 7.96 | | 资产负债率% | 44.11 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 178/178 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 08-26 09-26 10-26 11-26 12-26 01-26 02-26 03-26 04-26 05-2 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights Nobon Co., Ltd. (603238) as a leader in the high-end differentiated water-jet non-woven fabric industry, benefiting from the expanding and upgrading demand in the personal care and household cleaning market in China, alongside a booming new downstream market for oral tobacco products [3][9] Company Overview - Nobon has over 20 years of experience in the water-jet non-woven fabric sector, establishing a comprehensive platform that includes raw materials, products, and branding. The company has innovated with products like the "Sanlyzox" fully biodegradable water-jet materials and "no-scrap" wood core spun materials, creating significant technical barriers [9] - The company acquired a 51% stake in Hangzhou Guoguang, a well-known wet wipes manufacturer, in 2017, enhancing its production capabilities with a 5,000 square meter R&D space and a digitalized smart manufacturing workshop [9] - In 2023, the brand "Xiaozhijia" was positioned for growth, achieving an 81% year-on-year revenue increase in 2024 without prior promotional investment, indicating strong potential for future growth through collaboration with extensive supply chain and distribution networks [9] Financial Performance - Nobon is expected to see a significant rebound in profitability, with projected revenues of 2.24 billion yuan in 2024 (up 17% year-on-year) and a net profit of 95 million yuan (up 15% year-on-year). The first quarter of 2025 is anticipated to show even stronger growth, with year-on-year increases of 39% and 49% respectively [9] - The company’s top five customers contributed 850 million yuan in sales (up 67% year-on-year), with the customer concentration ratio (CR5) rising to 38.2% [9] Industry Dynamics - The non-woven fabric industry in China is experiencing a supply-demand rebalancing, with production levels declining since 2020, leading to a narrowing supply-demand gap. Key economic indicators for major enterprises in the industry are showing signs of recovery [9] - The market for oral tobacco products is in a growth phase, with significant increases in sales volumes reported by major international tobacco companies. This trend is expected to drive demand for high-end non-woven fabrics used in tobacco products, providing additional profit potential for Nobon [9] Investment Analysis - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for Nobon, projecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26% for net profit from 2025 to 2027, with expected net profits of 130 million, 160 million, and 190 million yuan respectively. The target price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are set at 22, 18, and 15 times for the respective years [3][9] - The target market capitalization is estimated at 3.9 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 37% from current valuations [3][9]