| | | 07 20 | 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | | 2025 年 | 月 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究所： | | | [Table_Title] | | | | | | 证券分析师： | 陈晨 | | 三伏天来袭，煤价延续提升 | S0350522110007 | | | | | | | | | chenc09@ghzq.com.cn | | | | | 联系人 ： | 张益 | | | S0350124100016 | | | | | | | | ——煤炭开采行业周报 | zhangy33@ghzq.com.cn | | | | | 联系人 ： | 徐萌 | | | S0350125070001 | | | | | | | | | xum02@ghzq.com.cn | | | | 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | 2025/07/18 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 煤炭开采 | -0.9% | -2.4% | -1 ...

Investment Rating - The coal mining industry is rated as "Recommended" [7] Core Views - The coal supply-demand relationship continues to optimize under high-temperature conditions, with port coal prices rising and inventory decreasing [4][72] - The production side shows a tightening trend, with a decrease in capacity utilization in Shanxi and a reduction in transportation volumes [4][72] - The demand side is supported by power plants replenishing inventory in anticipation of increased consumption due to high temperatures [4][72] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - Port coal prices increased to 623 RMB/ton, up 3 RMB/ton week-on-week [4][72] - Inventory at northern ports decreased by 797,000 tons week-on-week [30] - Daily consumption at coastal power plants rose by 80,000 tons week-on-week [24][72] 2. Coking Coal - Supply of coking coal has improved, with capacity utilization rising by 1.04 percentage points [5][41] - Coking coal prices at ports remained stable, with the average price at 1,230 RMB/ton [42] - Coking coal inventories at production enterprises decreased by 586,200 tons week-on-week [47] 3. Coke - Coking enterprises are experiencing a decline in production rates due to rising costs from coking coal prices [50] - The average profit per ton of coke is approximately -46 RMB, indicating a decrease in profitability [54] - Steel mills are replenishing raw material inventories, leading to a reduction in coke inventories [62] 4. Anthracite - Anthracite prices remained stable, with the price at 820 RMB/ton [68] - Demand from non-electric sectors remains weak, with procurement primarily focused on long-term contracts [68] 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, all rated as "Buy" [8] - The report highlights the strong cash flow and asset quality of leading coal companies, emphasizing their investment value [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal price expectations are beginning to improve as port inventory decreases and power plant replenishment demand becomes evident [1][7] - The supply side is tightening due to safety and environmental inspections leading to temporary mine closures, while demand remains supported by non-electric sectors [5][15] - The report highlights the investment value of coal companies, particularly those with high dividends and strong cash flows, amidst market volatility [7][81] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - The port coal price decline has narrowed to 16 CNY/ton this week, down from 22 CNY/ton the previous week, indicating a potential stabilization [15][79] - The production capacity utilization in the main producing areas has decreased by 0.99 percentage points due to inspections and maintenance [15][79] - Coastal and inland power plant coal inventories are relatively low compared to last year, with a total of 11,478 million tons as of May 14, 2025, which is 146 million tons lower than the same period last year [15][79] 2. Coking Coal - The production of coking coal remains stable, with the capacity utilization rate unchanged, while imports have increased slightly [5][80] - Coking coal prices have remained stable at ports, with the average price at 1,320 CNY/ton as of May 16, 2025 [47][80] - The inventory of coking coal production enterprises has increased by 23.22 million tons, indicating a slight oversupply [46][80] 3. Coke - The utilization rate of coking enterprises has increased to 76.02%, reflecting high production levels despite a slight decrease in iron output [6][59] - Coke prices have decreased slightly, with the price at 1,400 CNY/ton as of May 16, 2025 [59][60] - The overall profitability in the coke industry has improved, with an average profit of 7 CNY/ton, up by 6 CNY/ton from the previous week [62][66] 4. Anthracite Coal - The price of anthracite coal has remained stable, with the price at 850 CNY/ton as of May 16, 2025 [76][78] - The demand from non-electric sectors, particularly the chemical industry, continues to support the anthracite market [76][78] 5. Key Companies and Investment Logic - The report emphasizes the investment potential in coal companies with strong fundamentals, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yancoal [7][81] - The focus is on companies that exhibit characteristics of high profitability, cash flow, and dividend yields, which are attractive in the current market environment [7][81]