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绿茶集团(06831):2025年度业绩公告点评:西湖水暖,业绩兑现
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 4.76 billion RMB in 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of 24.1%. The adjusted net profit was 510 million RMB, with a year-over-year increase of 41.0%. The adjusted net profit margin improved to 10.7%, up by 1.3 percentage points from 2024, aligning with previous forecasts [1][9] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2025 was 4,763 million RMB, with projected revenues of 5,881 million RMB, 7,121 million RMB, and 8,595 million RMB for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, indicating growth rates of 23.5%, 21.1%, and 20.7% [8] - Adjusted net profit for 2025 was 509 million RMB, with forecasts of 662 million RMB, 834 million RMB, and 1,019 million RMB for the following years, reflecting growth rates of 30.1%, 26.0%, and 22.2% [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) based on adjusted net profit is projected to be 0.76 RMB for 2025, increasing to 0.98 RMB, 1.24 RMB, and 1.51 RMB for the subsequent years [8] Operational Highlights - Same-store sales declined by 0.8% in 2025, but the company showed resilience with a positive growth in Q2. The average customer spending in dine-in was stable at 58.0 RMB [9] - The company opened 157 new stores, achieving a net increase of 144 stores, bringing the total to 609 stores by year-end, with an expansion rate of approximately 30% [9] - The company’s delivery revenue surged by 66.5%, accounting for 25.3% of total revenue, indicating significant growth potential compared to industry peers [9] Cost and Profitability Metrics - The gross margin improved to 68.3%, up by 1.9 percentage points year-over-year, driven by centralized procurement and cost optimization strategies [9] - The adjusted net profit margin for 2025 was 10.7%, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 1.3 percentage points [9]