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广深铁路(601333):站线改造即将开启,征地补偿增厚业绩
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-08 23:32
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.265 billion yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders increased significantly by 17.0% to 347 million yuan, largely due to receiving 372 million yuan in land compensation. However, the non-recurring net profit dropped by 84.5% to 45 million yuan when excluding this compensation [2][4]. - The company is transitioning from a resource-based model to an operator model, focusing on high-speed rail operations. This transformation is expected to enhance business and valuation, although it may involve short-term pain due to the exit from conventional rail services and the cultivation of high-speed rail operations [6][10]. - The company anticipates profit growth from 1.44 billion yuan in 2025 to 1.77 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 15x, 13x, and 12x respectively [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company experienced a decline in passenger traffic across various services: intercity passengers down 11.7%, direct passengers down 7.3%, and long-distance trains down 21.6%. Despite this, the revenue increased by 2.2% to 7.265 billion yuan, while operating costs rose by 7.9% [2][4][11]. - The company received 372 million yuan in asset disposal income due to land requisition, which significantly impacted the financial results [4]. Business Transformation - The company is actively transforming its business model from traditional rail services to high-speed rail operations, which is expected to lead to a revaluation of its business. This transition is seen as a necessary response to the technological revolution in the rail industry [6][10]. - The company has begun upgrading its infrastructure, with the I and II line quality improvement projects passing inspection in September 2025, which is expected to increase operational costs in the short term [6][10]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to see a gradual increase in profits over the next few years, with estimates of 1.44 billion yuan in 2025, 1.65 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.77 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a positive growth trajectory [6][10].