黄金长期前景
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跌破4000美元,金价较高点已跌9%,此前7周飙升27%,业内高管“金价需要先下跌才能走高”
美股IPO· 2025-10-28 03:43
Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, which increased by 27% over seven weeks, is viewed as unsustainable and driven by speculative positions, leading industry executives to welcome a "healthy correction" [1][4][6]. Price Movement - On Monday, international gold prices fell to a low of $3980 per ounce after reaching a peak of $4381 on October 20, marking a decline of over 9% from recent highs [2][4]. - Industry executives believe that the recent price increase has created a "bubble" that is now being corrected [4][10]. Market Sentiment - Many industry professionals anticipate a deeper correction in gold prices in the coming weeks, with some suggesting that a drop to $3500-$3700 could be beneficial for the market [5][13]. - The World Gold Council's market strategist John Reade indicated that many in the industry would welcome a more significant correction [6][12]. Demand Factors - The sustainability of retail investor demand and central bank purchasing at high prices are critical concerns for the gold market [5][14]. - Recent weeks have seen increased interest from retail investors in Australia and Japan, but there are uncertainties regarding whether this trend will continue [14]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term corrections, many analysts and industry veterans maintain a positive long-term outlook for gold, with institutions like HSBC and Bank of America setting a target price of $5000 for next year [12][15]. - The long-term demand for gold is supported by its role as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty and high government debt levels [7][10].