Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of avoiding conspiracy theories in market analysis, advocating for a focus on the actual events occurring in the market rather than oversimplified narratives [2] Group 1: Key Market Observations - Corn: Concerns over quality and strengthening basis due to rainfall in North China, leading to a contango structure in the futures market, indicating pessimistic future expectations while the spot market shows resilience [3] - Palm Oil: October's Malaysian MPOB inventory is expected to peak at 2.4-2.5 million tons, presenting a moment of supply-demand looseness, with two potential pricing paths: continued bearish outlook or recognizing the absolute inventory level as not high, potentially setting up for future production cuts [4] - U.S.-China Relations: A temporary diplomatic thaw has provided significant upward momentum for U.S. soybeans, with prices rebounding more than the decline in South American premiums, impacting domestic soybean meal prices [4] Group 2: Seasonal Patterns and Trends - A key seasonal pattern indicates that Northern Hemisphere agricultural products are harvested in September-October, with price trends established prior to this period often exhibiting strong inertia, making it difficult for trends to reverse during peak listing periods [5] - Example 1: Corn prices fell sharply in early October, reflecting a continuation of weak expectations, evidenced by inverse trading strategies [6] - Example 2: The downward trend in red dates established in mid-October is also difficult to reverse, with significant declines observed in recent years [6] Group 3: Strategic Outlook for Key Commodities - Peanuts: Demand from peanut oil factories is crucial for market support; any narrative of production cuts may be invalidated if demand does not provide backing [7] - Soybean Meal: The easing of U.S.-China relations and upcoming weather speculation in South America provide cost support for U.S. soybeans and domestic soybean meal, but the overall supply remains ample, limiting upward potential [7] - Apples and Red Dates: Valuations are highly dependent on delivery costs and spot prices, necessitating a deep understanding of how futures and insurance models impact spot pricing [7] Group 4: Conclusion - The current market's contrarian direction is becoming clearer, with a focus on actual market facts such as the strength of corn basis, signals of palm oil inventory turning points, and the substantive impacts of U.S.-China trade policies to identify genuine trading opportunities [7]