.786 Fibonacci retracement

Search documents
3 Reasons US Equities May Be Short-Term Overheated
ZACKSยท 2025-05-15 14:50
Market Overview - The year 2025 has seen significant market corrections, particularly influenced by China's "DeepSeek" AI platform and President Trump's "Liberation Day," which led to a brief bear market [1] - Recent trade deals and thawing tensions between the US and China have contributed to a bullish sentiment, although a pullback in US equities may be imminent due to several factors [1] Sentiment Analysis - Market sentiment has shifted from extreme fear to near "Extreme Greed" levels, as indicated by the CNN Fear & Greed Indicator, which reflects a rapid change in investor emotions driven by price appreciation [2] Technical Indicators - The Nasdaq 100 has shown signs of being overbought, with a significant portion of its stocks (over 24%) having a Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 70, historically correlating with negative returns in the following week [4][5] - The S&P 500 Index has increased over 20% since the panic lows on April 7, which is notable compared to its historical average annual return of approximately 10% [7] - The S&P 500 is nearing its .786 Fibonacci retracement levels and old supply levels, suggesting potential resistance that may hinder further upward movement [7][9] Conclusion - The combination of rapidly changing sentiment, extreme overbought conditions, and approaching key resistance levels indicates that caution is warranted for investors in the short term [10]