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原木期货日报-20251222

Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-12-22 03:29

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the log futures fluctuated. The main contract LG2601 closed at 772 yuan per cubic meter, down 0.5 yuan per cubic meter from the previous period. The spot prices of the main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. The inventory decreased last week, and the demand declined slightly. From December 15 - 21, 2025, the number of pre - arrival ships of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports increased by 100% week - on - week, and the arrival volume increased by 89% week - on - week. The 01 contract's disk price was repaired near the warehouse receipt cost last week. The weekly data shows that the outbound volume remains resilient. Affected by the small arrival volume, the port inventory decreased, but there is still arrival pressure in the future. It is expected that the disk will mainly fluctuate. In the medium - to - long - term, attention can be paid to the 1 - 3 reverse spread opportunity [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: On December 19, the price of log 2601 was 772.0, down 0.5 from December 18 with a decline of - 0.06%; log 2603 was 779.0, up 1.0 with an increase of 0.13%; log 2605 was 783.5, down 1.5 with a decline of - 0.19%. The 01 - 03 spread was - 7.0, down 1.5; the 01 - 5 spread was - 11.5, up 1.0; the 03 contract basis was - 39.0, down 1.0; the 01 contract basis was - 32.0, up 0.5 [2]. - Spot prices: The prices of various types of logs at Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged on December 19 compared with December 18, with a 0.00% change. The CFR price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine was 112 dollars per JAS cubic meter, and the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce was 126 euros per JAS cubic meter, both unchanged [2]. - Import cost: On December 19, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.035, and the import theoretical cost was 775.38 yuan, down 0.14 from December 18 [2]. Supply - Monthly supply: In November, the port shipment volume was 189.2 million cubic meters, down 12.1 million cubic meters (- 6.01%) from October. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 49.0, down 5.0 (- 9.26%) [2]. Inventory - Weekly inventory: As of December 12, the total inventory of domestic softwood logs was 272 million cubic meters, a decrease of 16 million cubic meters compared with the previous week. The inventory in Shandong was 188.40 million cubic meters, down 11.1 million cubic meters; the inventory in Jiangsu was 68.24 million cubic meters, down 6.0 million cubic meters [2][3]. Demand - Weekly demand: As of December 12, the average daily outbound volume of logs was 6.46 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.2 million cubic meters compared with the previous week. The outbound volume in Shandong increased by 1%, while that in Jiangsu decreased by 8% [2][3].