【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 2026 年 2 月 27 日 | 价格指标 | 项 目 | 2026/2/26 | 2026/2/25 | 2026/2/24 | 2026/2/13 | 2026/2/12 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2603合约（收盘价） | 792 | 797.5 | 788.5 | 787.5 | 779.5 | -0.7% | 1.6% | | | 2603合约（成交量） | 832 | 4795 | 1913 | 2277 | 3795 | -82.6% | -78% | | | 2603合约（持仓量） | 800 | 1439 | 2230 | 2449 | 3142 | -44.4% | -75% | | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 793.5 | 796 | 789 | 787 | 785 | -0.3% | 1% | | 盘面 | 2605合约（成交量） | 2378 | 5126 | 2407 | 1560 | 2190 | -53.6% | ...

2026 年 2 月 26 日 原木：地产预期回暖，震荡偏强 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 | 价格指标 | 项 目 | 2026/2/25 | 2026/2/24 | 2026/2/13 | 2026/2/12 | 2026/2/11 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2603合约（收盘价） | 797.5 | 788.5 | 787.5 | 779.5 | 777 | 1.1% | 2.6% | | | 2603合约（成交量） | 4795 | 1913 | 2277 | 3795 | 2566 | 150.7% | 87% | | | 2603合约（持仓量） | 1439 | 2230 | 2449 | 3142 | 3972 | -35.5% | -64% | | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 796 | 789 | ...

2026 年 2 月 24 日 原木：低到港低库存，震荡偏强 期货研究 商 品 研 究 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 | 2026/2/11 | 价格指标 | 项 目 | 2026/2/13 | 2026/2/12 | 2026/2/10 | 2026/2/9 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 777 | | 2603合约（收盘价） | 787.5 | 779.5 | 773.5 | 775 | 1.0% | 1.6% | | 2566 | | 2603合约（成交量） | 2277 | 3795 | 4155 | 7702 | -40.0% | -70% | | 3972 | | 2603合约（持仓量） | 2449 | 3142 | 4525 | 5279 | -22.1% | -54% | | 787.5 | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 787 | 785 | 789.5 | 785.5 | 0.3% | ...

【基本面跟踪】 原木：需求预期不佳，价格下跌 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 2026 年 2 月 10 日 原木基本面数据 | 2026/2/4 | 价格指标 | 项 目 | 2026/2/6 | 2026/2/5 | 2026/2/3 | 2026/2/2 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 807.5 | | 2603合约（收盘价） | 784 | 802 | 801 | 795 | -2.2% | -1.4% | | 8544 | | 2603合约（成交量） | 9069 | 6656 | 6731 | 11027 | 36.3% | -18% | | 9329 | | 2603合约（持仓量） | 6990 | 8922 | 8902 | 9071 | -21.7% | -23% | | 802 | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 788 | 797.5 | 802 | 796 | -1.2% | -1% | | 2382 | 盘面 | 26 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Port arrivals of logs are low, and spot prices are rising steadily [1] - China's January RatingDog Manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations and up from the previous value of 50.1 [3] - Multiple real estate companies are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real estate companies need to report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in the city where their headquarters are located regularly [3][4] - The trend strength of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2603 contract, the closing price decreased by 2.2% daily and 1.4% weekly, the trading volume increased by 36.3% daily and decreased by 18% weekly, and the open interest decreased by 21.7% daily and 23% weekly. For the 2605 contract, the closing price decreased by 1.2% daily and 1% weekly, the trading volume increased by 17.4% daily and 8% weekly, and the open interest decreased by 9.4% daily and increased by 3% weekly. For the 2607 contract, the closing price decreased by 0.7% daily and 1% weekly, the trading volume increased by 172.0% daily and 80% weekly, and the open interest decreased by 1.9% daily and increased by 5% weekly [1] - **Spot - Futures Spreads**: The spreads between spot and 2603, spot and 2605 decreased by 34.6% and 20.0% daily respectively, and 24% and 17% weekly respectively. The spreads between 2603 - 2605, 2603 - 2607, and 2605 - 2607 also showed certain changes [1] - **Spot Market**: Most spot prices of different types of logs and wood squares remained stable, with only the price of 5.9 - meter 20 + radiata pine in the Shandong market increasing by 1.4% daily and weekly, and the price of 3 - meter and 4 - meter radiata pine wood squares in Chongqing increasing by 0.7% weekly [1] Macro and Industry News - China's January RatingDog Manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations and up from the previous value of 50.1 [3] - Multiple real estate companies are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real estate companies need to report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in the city where their headquarters are located regularly [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamentals of the log market are relatively healthy, with low inventory, high daily average outbound volume, and firm spot prices. However, the recovery of shipping volume may suppress the subsequent upward space [2][6]. - The 05 contract is difficult to evaluate before its expiration. From the perspective of the monthly spread structure, short - selling does not have an advantage at present. Future decisions should be based on post - holiday inventory and the firmness of spot prices [7]. - The strategy of going long on dips can be considered, but due to the lack of liquidity, participation should be cautious [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - As of January 30th, the national log inventory was 2.42 million cubic meters, hitting a new low, while the daily average outbound volume was 61,700 cubic meters, remaining at a relatively high level. It is expected that the outbound volume will significantly decline next week as downstream factories start to have the Spring Festival holiday [2]. - In the spot market, the price of 3 - meter radiata pine timber in Lanshan area continued to rise last week, and the prices of 3.9 - meter medium A and 5.9 - meter small A in Lanshan also increased by 10 yuan per cubic meter. Traders in Shandong offered relatively firm prices [2]. - Overseas shipping has changed. From January 29th to February 4th, 13 ships were sent from New Zealand, 9 more than the previous period, indicating that the short - term shipping disruptions in New Zealand have basically ended, and the inventory problem may be alleviated in the future [2]. - The announcement of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in the middle of the week showed that most car - board delivery warehouses in the Yangtze River Delta region (excluding Shandong) suspended delivery business, which reduced the implicit cost of buyers taking delivery and boosted their willingness to take delivery on the futures market, thus increasing the valuation of the futures market [2]. - The overseas offer remained at $112, the same as the previous period [2]. - On the futures market, there was a trend of upward movement last week. The 03 contract reached a maximum of 813 yuan per cubic meter in the middle of the week, but on Friday, there was a significant reduction in positions and the price dropped to 784 yuan per cubic meter. During the transition of the main contract, the overall position was insufficient, and the liquidity was poor. Large - scale position increases or decreases would have a significant impact on the futures price [2][4]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: After breaking through the previous high, the price fell back. The position was low, and the liquidity continued to weaken [8]. - **Basis, Monthly Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: - Basis strategy: Industrial customers can consider buying the basis [9]. - Monthly spread strategy: Exit the 3 - 5 positive spread and wait and see. The monthly spread needs to observe subsequent policy adjustments [9]. - **Recent Strategy Review**: - On December 25th, it was proposed to sell lg2603 - P - 750 and lg2603 - C - 800. On January 29th, the put position was moved to 775, and on February 3rd, 2026, it was already profitable [10]. - On January 17th, it was proposed to go long on the 3 - 5 positive spread at the lower edge of the 03 - 05 range, and on January 26th, it was proposed to take profit [11]. - On January 24th, it was proposed to conduct range trading between 750 - 795, and on January 30th, it was revised to 775 - 810 [11]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: When the log import volume is high and the inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises can short log futures according to their inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The recommended short - selling ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is 810 - 820 [10]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and enterprises hope to make purchases according to orders, they can buy log futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended buying ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is 760 - 765 [10]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The inventory reached a new low; the new announcement of the Dalian Commodity Exchange increased the buyers' willingness to take delivery; the spot price in Lanshan area increased, raising the valuation [12][16]. - **Negative Information**: Previously, buyers' willingness to take delivery was low, and sellers' delivery costs were high (this situation has been corrected); the shipping from New Zealand has recovered [13][14]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: The report provides detailed spot prices and basis information for different specifications of logs in various ports [14]. 3.3 Futures Market Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Funds continued to reduce positions and leave the market, and the current liquidity was insufficient [15]. 3.3.2 Basis and Monthly Spread Structure - Regarding the 3 - 5 monthly spread, it is currently recommended to wait and see. The 03 contract is fundamentally stronger than the 05 contract due to various positive factors mentioned above. The 3 - 5 monthly spread once reached 10 in the middle of the week and then fell back to - 4 on Friday [18]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Valuation - The warehouse - receipt cost in the Yangtze River Delta region is around 810 yuan (an increase of 6 yuan), anchored to 6 - meter large A logs, while the warehouse - receipt cost in Shandong is around 812 yuan (an increase of 10 yuan), anchored to 5.9 - meter small A logs. The buyers' willingness to take delivery, calculated at a 10% discount on the spot price, is around 770 yuan (an increase of 10 yuan). When the price approaches the warehouse - receipt cost, it is considered overvalued [25]. 3.4.2 Import Profit The import profit has been continuously recovering. The strengthening of spot prices in the Yangtze River Delta region has significantly improved the recent profit [26]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection - From February 7th to 16th, it is expected that 9 ships will arrive at the port, with a total cargo volume of about 340,000 cubic meters. From January 29th to February 4th, 13 ships were shipped from New Zealand [31]. - As of January 30th, the daily average outbound volume was 61,700 cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 100 cubic meters, indicating that the demand exceeded expectations. However, with the Spring Festival holiday approaching and subsequent ship arrivals, it is expected that the inventory will start to accumulate [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The report indicates that the log market is in a state of oscillatory consolidation [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: - For the 2603 contract, the closing price on February 5, 2026, was 802, with a daily decline of 0.7% and a weekly increase of 0.5%. The trading volume was 6656, a daily decrease of 22.1% and a weekly decrease of 57%. The open interest was 8922, a daily decrease of 4.4% and a weekly decrease of 12% [1] - For the 2605 contract, the closing price was 797.5, a daily decline of 0.6% and a weekly change of 0%. The trading volume was 2497, a daily increase of 4.8% and a weekly decrease of 36%. The open interest was 5085, a daily decrease of 1.2% and a weekly increase of 7% [1] - For the 2607 contract, the closing price was 801.5, a daily decline of 0.7% and a weekly change of 0%. The trading volume was 82, a daily decrease of 18.0% and a weekly decrease of 75%. The open interest was 1125, a daily increase of 1.4% and a weekly increase of 7% [1] - **Spread Data**: - The spread between the spot and the 2603 contract was -52 on February 5, 2026, with a daily decline of 9.6% and a weekly decline of 10% - The spread between the spot and the 2605 contract was -47.5, a daily decline of 8.7% and a weekly decline of 16% - The spreads between different contracts (2603 - 2605, 2603 - 2607, 2605 - 2607) also showed certain changes [1] - **Spot Market Data**: - In the log spot market, the prices of various types of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu markets were mostly stable, with only a few showing slight increases. For example, the price of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Shandong market increased by 1.4% week - on - week [1] - In the wood square spot market, the prices of 3 - meter and 4 - meter radiata pine wood squares in some regions also showed slight increases, such as a 4.1% week - on - week increase in the 3 - meter radiata pine wood square in Rizhao [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - China's January RatingDog Manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 50.1 [3] - Multiple real - estate enterprise related personnel stated that currently, their companies are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly. However, some troubled real - estate enterprises are required to regularly report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in the city where their headquarters are located [3][4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The log trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The spot market is firm with rising prices due to increased pre - holiday demand for construction site stocking, more factory orders, and active hedging by futures - cash traders, along with strong reluctance of traders to sell. The 03 contract has a valuation repair due to low inventory and expected decrease in later shipments. However, with the approach of the Spring Festival, the trading activity in the spot market is expected to decline gradually, and the weak demand remains unchanged. So, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see attitude towards the current price [3][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On February 4, 2026, the price of log 2603 was 807.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 6.5 yuan from the previous day with a 0.81% increase; log 2605 was 802.0 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; log 2607 was 807.0 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.5 yuan with a 0.06% increase. The basis of the main contract was - 57.5, down 6.5 from the previous day. Most spot prices at ports remained unchanged, while the CFR price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine increased by 2.73% to 113 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, and the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce was unchanged at 125 euros/JAS cubic meter [2] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On February 5, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.940 yuan, up 0.01 yuan from the previous day. The import theoretical cost calculated with a 15% over - length was 771.89 yuan, up 20.66 yuan from the previous day with a 3% increase [2] Supply: Monthly - In December 2025, the port shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 109.5 million cubic meters, down 46.32% from November. The number of ships at the port was 29, down 47.27% from November [2] Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of January 30, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 242 million cubic meters, down 7 million cubic meters from the previous week. In Shandong, it was 177.10 million cubic meters, down 6.20%; in Jiangsu, it was 40.76 million cubic meters, up 23.63% [2][3] Demand: Daily Average Outbound Volume - As of January 30, the daily average outbound volume of logs was 6.17 million cubic meters, up 0.01 million cubic meters from the previous week. In Shandong, it was 3.89 million cubic meters, up 8%; in Jiangsu, it was 1.59 million cubic meters, down 18% [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot market is firm with rising prices due to increased pre - holiday construction site stocking demand, more factory orders, and active hedging by futures - cash traders, leading to strong reluctance among traders to sell. The 03 contract's valuation is being repaired due to low inventory and expected reduced future shipments. However, with the approaching Spring Festival, spot market trading activity is expected to decline, and demand remains weak. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach at current prices [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On February 3, 2026, the prices of log futures contracts (LG2603, LG2605, LG2607) increased, with LG2603 at 801.0, up 6.0 (0.75%) from the previous day; LG2605 at 802.0, up 6.0 (0.75%); LG2607 at 806.5, up 2.0 (0.25%). The主力合约基差 was - 51.0, down 6.0 from the previous day. Most spot prices of different types of logs at ports remained unchanged [2] - The latest round of FOB quotes showed that the CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine increased by 3 to 113 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, while the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce remained at 125 euros per JAS cubic meter [2] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On February 4, 2026, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged at 6.934. The import theoretical cost was 771.23 yuan, up 19.89 (3%) from the previous day [2] Supply: Monthly - In December 2025, the port shipping volume was 109.5 million cubic meters, a decrease of 94.5 million cubic meters (- 46.32%) compared to November. The number of ships at the port from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased from 55.0 to 29.0, a decrease of 26.0 (- 47.27%) [2] Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of January 30, 2026, the total inventory of domestic softwood logs was 242 million cubic meters, a decrease of 7 million cubic meters (- 2.81%) compared to the previous week. In Shandong, the inventory was 177.10 million cubic meters, a decrease of 11.7 million cubic meters (- 6.20%); in Jiangsu, it was 40.76 million cubic meters, an increase of 7.8 million cubic meters (23.63%) [2] Demand: Daily Average Out - bound Volume - As of January 30, 2026, the daily average out - bound volume of logs was 6.17 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.01 million cubic meters compared to the previous week. In Shandong, it was 3.89 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.28 million cubic meters (8%); in Jiangsu, it was 1.59 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.35 million cubic meters (- 18%) [3] Ship Arrival Forecast - From February 2 - 8, 2026, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 5, a decrease of 2 from the previous week (a 29% week - on - week decrease), and the total arrival volume was about 18.5 million cubic meters, a decrease of 3.3 million cubic meters (a 15% week - on - week decrease) [3]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 3 日 原木：小幅探涨 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 | 项 目 | 价格指标 | 2026/1/28 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 2026/1/27 | | 2026/2/2 2026/1/30 | | 2026/1/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2603合约（收盘价） 795 798 785 775.5 775.5 | | | -0.4% | | | 2.5% | | | | | 2603合约（成交量） 11027 15438 9866 2751 3684 | | | -28.6% | | | 199% | | | | | 2603合约（持仓量） 9071 10123 10248 10129 10340 | | | -10.4% | | | -12% | | | | | 2605合约（收盘价） 796 796.5 789.5 784.5 786.5 | | | -0.1% | ...