免责声明 2026年1月13日 | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 1月12日 | 1月9日 | 张跌 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2601 | 770.0 | 742.0 | 28.0 | 3.77% | | | 原木2603 | 773.0 | 774.5 | -1.5 | -0.19% | | | 原木2605 | 786.5 | 787.0 | -0.5 | -0.06% | | | 原木2607 | 799.5 | 798.0 | 1.5 | 0.19% | | | 主力合约基差 | -33.0 | -34.5 | 1.5 | | | | 日照港3.9A小辐射松 | 680.0 | 680.0 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 日照港3.9A中辐射松 | 740 | 740 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 日照港3.9A大辐射松 | 850 | 850 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 太仓港 4A 小辐射松 | 670 | 670 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 太仓港 4A 中辐射 ...

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息8)准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映 研究人员的不同观点、见解及分析方法，并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表 达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或海价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归 广发期货所有,未经广发期货书面授权,任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布,复制。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为"广发期货"。 | MINTH MANITH | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 1月9日 | 1月8日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2601 | 742.0 | 742.0 | 0.0 | 0.00% | | | 原木2603 | 774.5 | 778.5 | -4.0 | -0.51% | | | 原木2605 | 787.0 | 789.0 | -2.0 | -0.25% | | | 原木2607 | 798.0 | 800.5 ...

证监许可 【2011】1292号 52.10 -1.2 -2.36% 江苏 50.88 需求: (周慶) 日均出库量 单位 1月2日 涨跌幅 12月26日 地区 旅跌 中国 5.65 5.83 -0.18 -3% 山东 万/立方米 2.89 2.79 0.10 4% 2.17 -0.27 江苏 2.44 -11% 原木主要港口库存(万方) 原木日均出库量(万方) 750 650 550 420 350 250 150 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/111/112/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/110/111/112/11/1 =2022 -- 2023 = -2024 = 2025 =2022 == 2023 = =2024 @ 2025 辐射松4米中A: CFR价(美元/JAS立方米) 辐射松3.8中A现货价(元/立方米) 220 - 2020 =2022 2021 860 2024 2055 · 2023 180 810 760 710 80 4/4 6/4 8/4 10/4 12/4 2/4 4/4 6/4 8/4 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 8, 2026, the log futures fluctuated strongly, with the main contract LG2603 closing at 782 yuan per cubic meter, up 8 yuan per cubic meter from the previous day [3] - The spot price of the main benchmark delivery product remained unchanged. The price of medium A radiata pine of 3.9 meters in Shandong was 740 yuan per cubic meter, and that of medium A radiata pine of 4 meters in Jiangsu was 730 yuan per cubic meter. The latest round of FOB quotes was 110 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, down 2 US dollars [3] - Last week, inventory started to accumulate. As of January 2, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.67 million cubic meters, an increase of 130,000 cubic meters from the previous week. Demand continued to decline slightly. As of January 2, the average daily log delivery volume was 56,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 18,000 cubic meters from the previous week [3] - From January 5 - 11, 2026, 13 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 1 ship from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 8%; the total arrival volume is about 479,000 cubic meters, an increase of 70,500 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 17% [3] - The 01 contract continued to be deeply discounted for delivery, and the buyer's willingness to take delivery remained poor. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and the expected decrease in later shipments, but the demand remains weak and the upward adjustment space is limited. Overall, the contradiction is insufficient, with limited upward and downward drivers, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Futures and Spot Prices - On January 7, the prices of log futures contracts 2601, 2603, 2605, and 2607 were 742, 782, 790.5, and 802 respectively, with changes of -25.5, 8, 5.5, and 5 compared to January 6, and the corresponding price change percentages were -3.32%, 1.03%, 0.70%, and 0.63% respectively. The basis of the main contract was -42, a decrease of 8 compared to January 6 [1] - The spot prices of various types of radiata pine and spruce in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged on January 7 compared to January 6 [1] - The FOB quote of medium A 4 - meter radiata pine on January 9 was 110 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, a decrease of 2 US dollars compared to January 2, with a decrease rate of 1.79%; the FOB quote of 11.8 - meter spruce was 124 euros per JAS cubic meter, unchanged from January 2 [1] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On January 7, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.984, an increase of 0.01 compared to January 6. The import theoretical cost was 756.62 yuan, a decrease of 12.50 yuan compared to January 6, with a decrease rate of 2% [1] Supply: Monthly - As of November 30, the shipping volume from the port was 1.914 million cubic meters, an increase of 22,000 cubic meters compared to October 31, with an increase rate of 1.16%. The number of departing vessels from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 52, an increase of 3 compared to the previous period, with an increase rate of 6.12% [1] Inventory: Main Port Inventory - As of January 2, the total domestic log inventory was 2.67 million cubic meters, an increase of 130,000 cubic meters compared to December 26, with an increase rate of 5.12%. The inventory in Shandong was 1.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 98,000 cubic meters compared to December 26, with an increase rate of 5.29%. The inventory in Jiangsu was 508,800 cubic meters [1][3] Demand: (Weekly) Average Daily Delivery Volume - As of January 2, the average daily log delivery volume in China was 56,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 18,000 cubic meters compared to December 26, with a decrease rate of 3%. The average daily delivery volume in Shandong was 28,900 cubic meters, an increase of 1,000 cubic meters compared to December 26, with an increase rate of 4%. The average daily delivery volume in Jiangsu was 21,700 cubic meters, a decrease of 2,700 cubic meters compared to December 26, with a decrease rate of 11% [3]

期货和现货价格 | MJ2KTH MANITH | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 1月6日 | 1月5日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2601 | 767.5 | 753.5 | 14.0 | 1.86% | | | 原木2603 | 774.0 | 772.5 | 1.5 | 0.19% | | | 原木2605 | 785.0 | 785.0 | 0.0 | 0.00% | | | 原木2607 | 797.0 | 797.0 | 0.0 | 0.00% | | | 主力合约基差 | -34.0 | -32.5 | -1.5 | | | | 日照港3.9A小辐射松 | 680.0 | 680.0 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 日照港3.9A中辐射松 | 740 | 740 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 日照港3.9A大辐射松 | 850 | 850 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 太仓港 4A 小辐射松 | 670 | 670 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 太仓港 4A 中辐射松 | 73 ...

原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2026年1月5日 曹剑兰 数据来源:海关总器、木联数据、Wind、广发期货研究所。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料、但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映 研究人员的不同观点、见解及分析方法，并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表 达的难见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价,投资者据此投资,风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士,版权归 广发期货所有，未经广发期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为" 发期货"。 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 关注微信公众号 | Z0019556 | | --- | | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 12月31日 | 12月30日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2601 | 737.0 | 756.0 | -1 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot prices of mainstream radiata pine products in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained stable, with a price difference of 0 yuan/m³ for 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine between the two regions. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply [4]. - As of December 21, there were 33 ships departing from New Zealand in December, with 26 bound for mainland China. It is estimated that 15 ships will arrive in December and 18 in January, with an expected arrival volume of 1.58 million cubic meters in December [5][8]. - As of the week of December 26, the daily average shipment volume and inventory of the four major ports remained unchanged from the previous week, with a total inventory of 1.9131 million cubic meters [6]. - As of December 31, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 776 yuan/m³, a 0.3% increase from the previous week. The market was in a high - level oscillation pattern with a weak supply - demand fundamental situation. The monthly spreads tended to narrow [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - As of December 21, there were 33 ships departing from New Zealand in December, 26 of which were going to mainland China and 7 to Taiwan, China, and South Korea for partial unloading. It is expected that about 15 ships will arrive in December and 18 in January, with an expected arrival volume of 1.58 million cubic meters in December [5][8]. - Detailed information on the departure time, load, current port, expected destination port, and expected arrival time of 33 ships from New Zealand in December is provided [8]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of January 2, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 21,600 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week), and that of Taicang Port was 14,600 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week). - In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.2668 million cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week), Taicang Port about 385,500 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week), Xinminzhou about 126,500 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week), and Jiangdu Port about 134,300 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week). The total inventory of the four major ports was 1.9131 million cubic meters, with no change in inventory from the previous week [12]. - A table shows the inventory and daily shipment volume of major domestic ports over multiple time periods, including inventory changes compared to the previous week and four weeks ago [13]. 3.3 Market Trends - As of December 31, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 776 yuan/m³, a 0.3% increase from the previous week. The market was in a high - level oscillation pattern, and the fundamentals maintained a weak supply - demand situation. The monthly spreads tended to narrow. The 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 10.5 yuan/m³, the 03 - 07 monthly spread was - 22.5 yuan/m³, and the 05 - 07 monthly spread was - 12 yuan/m³ [18]. 3.4 Price and Spread - **Spot Price**: The report provides the spot price data of various tree species and specifications of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu regions, showing that most prices remained unchanged from the previous week [21]. - **Regional Spread**: The report presents the price spreads of mainstream tree species between Shandong and Jiangsu regions, including 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine, etc. [22][23]. - **Species and Specification Spread**: The report shows the price spreads between different tree species and specifications, such as the spread between 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine and 40 + radiata pine [41]. 3.5 Other - **Freight and Exchange Rate**: As of the week of January 4, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1877.00 points, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 719 points, and the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1656.32 points. The US dollar index weakened, the US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 7.003, a 0.06% decrease from the previous week, and the US dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 1.3% to 1.736 [56]. - A table shows the changes in freight - related indices and exchange rates over multiple time periods, including the comparison with the previous week and four weeks ago [55].

| | | | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 12月30日 | 12月29日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2601 | 756.0 | 760.5 | -4.5 | -0.59% | | | 原木2603 | 776.0 | 776.0 | 0.0 | 0.00% | | | 原木2605 | 787.5 | 785.0 | 2.5 | 0.32% | | | 01-03价差 | -20.0 | -15.5 | -4.5 | | | | 01-05价差 | -31.5 | -24.5 | -7.0 | | | | 03合约基差 | -36.0 | -36.0 | 0.0 | | | | 01合约基差 | -16.0 | -20.5 | 4.5 | | | | 日照港3.9A小辐射松 | 680.0 | 680.0 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 日照港3.9A中辐射松 | 740 | 740 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 日照港3.9A大辐射松 | 850 | 850 | 0 | 0. ...

原木期货日报 免责声明 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月30日 曹剑兰 | 20019556 | | --- | | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 12月29日 | 12月26日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2601 | 760.5 | 766.0 | -5.5 | -0.72% | | | 原木2603 | 776.0 | 776.5 | -0.5 | -0.06% | | | 原木2605 | 785.0 | 787.0 | -2.0 | -0.25% | | | 01-03价差 | -15.5 | -10.5 | -5.0 | | | | 01-05价差 | -24.5 | -21.0 | -3.5 | | | | 03合约基差 | -36.0 | -36.5 | 0.5 | | | | 01合约基差 | -20.5 | -26.0 | 5.5 | | | | 日照港3.9A小辐射松 | 680.0 | 680.0 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 日照港3.9A中辐射 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - In the week of December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, China is expected to receive 15 shipments of New Zealand softwood logs, an increase of 6 shipments from the previous week, representing a week-on-week increase of 67% [1] - The total volume of logs arriving at ports is 510,500 cubic meters, which is an increase of 204,500 cubic meters from the previous week, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 66.8% [1] - The average daily outflow of softwood logs from 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 58,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 7.75% from the previous week [1] Group 2: Inventory and Supply - As of December 26, 2025, the total inventory of softwood logs in China was 2.54 million cubic meters, a week-on-week decrease of 2.31% [1] - Radiata pine inventory stood at 2.16 million cubic meters, down 1.37% week-on-week [1] - North American wood inventory remained stable at 70,000 cubic meters, while spruce/fir inventory decreased by 10,000 cubic meters to 150,000 cubic meters [1] Group 3: Futures Market Insights - According to Nanhua Futures, the weekly volatility in the futures market remains low, fluctuating between 765 and 785 yuan per cubic meter, with the main contract holding a position of 11,000 lots, indicating a capital outflow [2] - Newhu Futures noted that while inventory has decreased and is below last year's levels, the pressure from incoming shipments is expected to rise in the coming weeks, with terminal demand showing no significant improvement [3] - The overall market is characterized by a lack of major contradictions in fundamentals, with domestic and international price discrepancies limiting significant downward movement, leading to expectations of low-level fluctuations in the main contract [3]