投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原木周报（LG)】 原木期货11合约震荡运行 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-09-22 杨璐琳 从业资格证号：F3042528 投资咨询证号：Z0015194 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原木：原木期货11合约震荡运行 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 据木联调研，2025年08月，新西兰原木离港船只约44条月环比减少3条，总发货量约166.6万方，较7月173.3万方减少4%。 其中，35条船发往中国，发货量约136.0万方，占比82%，较7月147.6万方减少8%，部分外商报价相较于2025年8月有所下调。 | | 需求 | 中性 | 据木联数据统计，9月8日-9月14日，中国7省13港针叶原木日均出库量为6.29万方，较上周增加2.78%;其中，山东港口针叶原木日均出库 量为3.44万方，较上周增加2.99%;江苏港口针叶原木日均出库量为2.22万方，较上周增加 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in the Shandong market increased by 10 yuan/cubic meter compared to last week, while the price in the Jiangsu market remained flat. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply. - As of September 14, there were 21 ships departing from New Zealand in September, with 16 bound for mainland China and 5 for Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced loads. It is expected that 15 ships will arrive in September and 6 in October, with an estimated arrival of 1.41 million cubic meters in September. - As of the week of September 12, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port increased by 0.34 million cubic meters week - on - week, and that of Taicang Port increased by 0.07 million cubic meters week - on - week. The total inventory of the four major ports increased by 35,600 cubic meters compared to the previous week. - As of September 19, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 increased by 0.7% compared to last week, and the market showed a narrow - range oscillation. The fundamental situation maintained a marginal weak supply - demand pattern. [19] 3. Summary by Directory Overview - The spot price of 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in Shandong was 755 yuan/cubic meter, up 10 yuan/cubic meter from last week; in Jiangsu, it was 765 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week. The price of 3.9 - meter 40+ radiata pine in Shandong remained flat at 850 yuan/cubic meter. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market were out of stock [4]. Supply - As of September 14, 21 ships departed from New Zealand in September, with 16 going to mainland China and 5 to Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced loads. It is expected that 15 ships will arrive in September and 6 in October, with an estimated arrival of 1.41 million cubic meters in September [5]. Demand and Inventory - As of the week of September 12, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 2.02 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.34 million cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 1.19 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.07 million cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port's inventory was about 1.1379 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 10,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port's inventory was about 464,900 cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 24,200 cubic meters), Xinminzhou's inventory was about 321,400 cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 51,200 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port's inventory was about 154,700 cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 52,600 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.0789 million cubic meters, an increase of 35,600 cubic meters compared to the previous week [6][12]. Market Trends - As of September 19, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 805 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.7% from last week. The market showed a narrow - range oscillation, and the fundamental situation maintained a marginal weak supply - demand pattern. The monthly spread changes this week were small [19]. Price and Spread - **Spot Price**: The price of 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in Shandong increased by 10 yuan/cubic meter compared to last week, while the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged. The prices of other specifications and varieties in different regions showed little change or slight decreases compared to four weeks ago [22]. - **Regional Spread**: The report presents the price spreads of different tree species and specifications between Shandong and Jiangsu, such as the spread of 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine between the two regions [25]. - **Tree Species and Specification Spread**: The report shows the price spreads between different specifications of radiata pine, such as the spread between 3.9 - meter 30+ and 40+ radiata pine [39]. Other - **Freight Index**: As of the week of September 21, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,203.00 points, up 77 points (+3.6%) from last week; the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 815 points, up 1.4% from last week; the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,198.21 points, down 14.3% from last week. - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index fluctuated weakly. The US dollar - to - Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.115, down 0.1% week - on - week, and the US dollar - to - New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 1.7% to 1.707 [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the log market is "oscillation". The 11 - contract of log futures is expected to oscillate in the range of 820 - 840 yuan/m³ [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the log market from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, trade profit, and valuation. It concludes that all these factors are currently neutral, and the log 11 - contract is expected to oscillate in the 820 - 840 yuan/m³ range. The key influencing factor to watch is the domestic demand situation [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: From August 25 - 31, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 12 Chinese ports was 13, an increase of 5 from last week, a week - on - week increase of 63%. The total arrival volume was about 440,000 cubic meters, an increase of 156,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week increase of 55% [3]. - **Demand**: From August 18 - 24, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 64,500 cubic meters, a 1.90% increase from last week. Among them, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 34,900 cubic meters, a 2.79% decrease from last week, and that at Jiangsu ports was 24,200 cubic meters, a 4.31% increase from last week [3]. - **Inventory**: As of August 22, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.05 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33%. The radiata pine inventory was 2.49 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.40% [3]. - **Trade Profit**: After the increase in the overseas market quotation, the profit inversion situation of traders has intensified. As of August 29, 2025, the trader's profit was - 69 yuan/m³ [3]. - **Valuation**: The delivery cost range of the 11 - contract is between 820 - 840 yuan/m³, and the overall valuation level is neutral [3]. - **Investment View**: The log 11 - contract is expected to oscillate in the 820 - 840 yuan/m³ range [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: /; Arbitrage: /; Risk to watch: Domestic demand situation [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: The 09 - contract showed weak performance, and the 11 - contract oscillated. Last week, the log futures contract converged towards the receiving price, and the overall price showed weak performance. The delivery volume of the 09 - contract was low, and the fluctuation during the delivery month is expected to be limited. For the 11 - contract, there are currently no major contradictions, and the inventory accumulation inflection point has not arrived. It is currently expected to be in the 820 - 840 yuan/m³ range [6]. - **Futures Position**: As of August 29, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 18,930 lots, a 33.5% decrease from last week. The position of the main 2509 contract was 13,583 lots, a 13.5% increase from last week [11]. - **Spot Price**: As of August 29, 2025, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine in Shandong were 720/750/860 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 740/790/930 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 730/780/820 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 750/800/860 yuan/m³ [17]. 3.3 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Log Import Volume**: In July 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 1.9533 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 10.26% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.90%. From January to July 2025, the total coniferous log import volume was about 14.2897 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.57%. In July 2025, the total coniferous log import volume from New Zealand was about 1.4581 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 12.87% and a year - on - year increase of 3.35%. From January to July 2025, the total coniferous log import volume from New Zealand was about 10.7066 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.24%. In July 2025, the total radiata pine import volume was about 1.3972 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 13.04% and a year - on - year increase of 5.76%. From January to July 2025, the total radiata pine import volume was about 10.4161 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.25% [22]. - **New Zealand Log Shipment and Delivery Volume**: From August 25 - 31, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 12 Chinese ports was 13, an increase of 5 from last week, a week - on - week increase of 63%. The total arrival volume was about 440,000 cubic meters, an increase of 156,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week increase of 55%. In terms of ports, 6 ships are expected to arrive at Shandong ports, with an arrival volume of about 212,000 cubic meters, accounting for 48%, and the arrival volume increased by 14% week - on - week. 5 ships are expected to arrive at Jiangsu ports, with an arrival volume of about 148,000 cubic meters, accounting for 34%, and the arrival volume increased by 131% week - on - week [25]. - **Trade Profit**: As of August 2025, the CFR quotation of radiata pine was 116 US dollars/JASm³, equivalent to 815 yuan/m³ in RMB, and the import profit was about - 69 yuan/m³. In July 2025, the AWG price at New Zealand port warehouses was 117 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, the export cost was about 108 US dollars/JASm³, and the export profit was about 7.6 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [28]. - **Domestic Log Inventory**: As of August 22, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.05 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33%. The radiata pine inventory was 2.49 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.40%. The North American timber inventory was 120,000 cubic meters, unchanged from last week. The spruce/fir inventory was 220,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters from last week. In terms of provinces, the total coniferous log inventory at Shandong ports was 1.86 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.32% from last week, and that at Jiangsu ports was 994,995 cubic meters, an increase of 1.22% from last week [33]. - **Domestic Port Log Outbound Volume**: From August 18 - 24, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 64,500 cubic meters, a 1.90% increase from last week. Among them, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 34,900 cubic meters, a 2.79% decrease from last week, and that at Jiangsu ports was 24,200 cubic meters, a 4.31% increase from last week [35]. - **Wooden Square Price and Processing Profit**: As of August 22, 2025, the wooden square price in Shandong was 1270 yuan/m³, unchanged week - on - week, and that in Jiangsu was 1280 yuan/m³, an increase of 20 yuan/m³ week - on - week. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/m³, unchanged week - on - week, and that in Jiangsu was - 20 yuan/m³, an increase of 4 yuan/m³ week - on - week [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of log green environmental protection products has been weak recently, with funds withdrawing. There is no strong driving force currently, and the long - short situation is relatively balanced. The price mainly revolves around the delivery cost. The 09 contract price is moderately undervalued, while the 11 contract cannot be valued at present. The 09 - 11 spread showed a reverse spread today, which is hard to explain. The inventory is at a low level, and the deliverable goods for the 09 contract are not very abundant. There is some transfer and resale pressure for the 07 contract deliverable goods in Chongqing, but the quantity is limited [3]. - As of August 11, no warehouse receipts have been issued, but they will definitely come out, just a matter of time. In the strategy, it is recommended to go long on the lg2509 contract on dips and conduct a timely positive spread operation on the 09 - 11 contracts. The price has strong support around 820, and it is approaching the peak season in September [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 820 - 860, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4% [2]. Log Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When the log import volume is high and the inventory is at a high level, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short the lg2509 log futures according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 850 - 875 [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and the enterprise wants to purchase according to order conditions, to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising log prices, it can buy the lg2509 log futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 810 - 820 [2]. Spot and Basis - On August 12, 2025, the spot prices of different specifications of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang are provided, along with data on spot price changes, spot length - adjusted conversions,主力合约 prices, delivery premiums and discounts, basis, and adjusted basis. The calculation formula for the adjusted basis is: Adjusted basis = Spot price after length adjustment (108%) - Main contract price ± Premium or discount [6][8][9]. Log Data Overview | Category | Indicator | Update Date | Value | MoM | YoY | Frequency | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | Radiation pine import volume | 2025 - 06 - 30 | 161 | - 8 | 35.3% | Monthly | 10,000 m³ | | | Port inventory (China) | 2025 - 08 - 08 | 308 | - 9 | - 7.0% | Weekly | 10,000 m³ | | Inventory | Port inventory (Shandong) | 2025 - 08 - 08 | 1,926,000 | - 24,000 | 8.2% | Weekly | m³ | | | Port inventory (Jiangsu) | 2025 - 08 - 08 | 927,867 | - 32,133 | 2.9% | Weekly | m³ | | | Log port daily average outbound volume | 2025 - 08 - 08 | 6.42 | 0 | 35.7% | Weekly | 10,000 m³ | | Demand | Daily average outbound volume (Shandong) | 2025 - 08 - 08 | 3.64 | 0.07 | 61.8% | Weekly | 10,000 m³ | | | Daily average outbound volume (Jiangsu) | 2025 - 08 - 08 | 2.26 | - 0.06 | 29.9% | Weekly | 10,000 m³ | | Profit | Radiation pine import profit | 2025 - 08 - 15 | - 88 | - 1 | - | Weekly | Yuan/m³ | | | Spruce import profit | 2025 - 08 - 15 | - 89 | - 5 | - | Weekly | Yuan/m³ | | | 3.9 medium (3.8A) Rizhao Port | 2025 - 08 - 12 | 750 | 0 | - 5.1% | Daily | Yuan/m³ | | Main Spot | 4 medium (3.8A) Taicang Port | 2025 - 08 - 12 | 780 | 0 | - 3.7% | Daily | Yuan/m³ | | | 5.9 medium (5.8A) Rizhao Port | 2025 - 08 - 12 | 790 | 0 | - 2.5% | Daily | Yuan/m³ | | | 6 medium (5.8A) Taicang Port | 2025 - 08 - 12 | 800 | 0 | - 4.8% | Daily | Yuan/m³ | | Outer - disk Quotation | CFR | 2025 - 08 - 15 | 116 | 0 | - 1.7% | Weekly | US dollars/JASm³ | [10] Market Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: Due to continuous import losses, traders have the intention to jointly support prices; the import cost continues to rise; the overall sentiment of commodities has warmed up; and there is an impact from funds [8]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The peak season may not be prosperous, and the foreign shipment volume continues to increase [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the log industry is "oscillating", with logs expected to oscillate in the range of 800 - 840 yuan/m³ [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Log futures are expected to oscillate in the range of 800 - 840 yuan/m³ under the influence of rising foreign quotes and improving domestic demand. The trading strategy suggests spot registration for warehouse - receipt delivery, with attention to domestic demand [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: From August 4 - 10, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 18 Chinese ports was 14, an increase of 8 from last week, a week - on - week increase of 133%. The total arrival volume was about 425,000 cubic meters, an increase of 204,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week increase of 92% [3]. - **Demand**: As of August 1, 2025, the average daily outbound volume of logs in Shandong was 35,700 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 5.31% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.46% [3]. - **Inventory**: As of August 1, 2025, the available days of national log port inventory were 49.4 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.20% and a month - on - month increase of 2.28% [3]. - **Trade Profit**: After the increase in foreign quotes, the profit inversion of traders intensified. As of August 8, 2025, the trader's profit was - 55 yuan/m³, with a slight week - on - week increase [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot price of 5.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine was 790 - 800 yuan/m³, equivalent to a delivery cost of 820 - 830 yuan/m³ [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: Last week, log futures oscillated. The ebbing of commodity sentiment and the delivery cost calculated based on the import price formed the upper pressure, while the rising August foreign quotes and the decline in domestic port inventory provided some positive factors. It oscillated in the range of 820 - 840 yuan/m³. As of August 8, 2025, the total log futures contract positions were 31,497 lots, a 15.7% increase from last week; the positions of the main log futures contract 2509 were 20,650 lots, a 5.4% increase from last week [6][11]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 8, 2025, the prices of 3.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A radiata pine in Shandong were 720/750/860 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A radiata pine were 730/790/930 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A radiata pine were 720/770/820 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A radiata pine were 750/800/860 yuan/m³ [17]. 3.3 Log Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In June 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were about 2.1768 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 15.73%. From January to June 2025, the total coniferous log imports were about 12.3364 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.97%. In June 2025, China's imports of coniferous logs from New Zealand were about 1.6735 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 2.16% and a year - on - year increase of 37.37%. From January to June 2025, the imports from New Zealand were about 9.2485 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.91%. In June 2025, China's imports of radiata pine were about 1.6068 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 4.98% and a year - on - year increase of 34.07%. From January to June 2025, the imports of radiata pine were about 9.0189 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 0.55% [21]. - **Shipping and Shipment Volume**: From August 2 - 8, 2025, a total of 10 ships with 360,000 cubic meters of logs departed from New Zealand ports, an increase of 2 ships and 60,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. Among them, 8 ships with 290,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, an increase of 2 ships and 60,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week [24]. - **Trade Profit**: The increase in foreign quotes intensified the profit inversion of traders. As of July 2025, the CFR quote of radiata pine was 113 - 115 US dollars/JASm³, equivalent to 795 - 805 yuan/m³ in RMB, and the import profit was about - 57 yuan/m³. In July 2025, the AWG price at New Zealand port warehouses was 117 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, the export cost was about 108 US dollars/JASm³, and the export profit was about 7.6 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [31]. - **Inventory**: As of August 1, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, flat week - on - week. The radiata pine inventory was 2.56 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39%. The North American timber inventory was 200,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week increase of 5.26%. The spruce/fir inventory was 200,000 cubic meters, flat week - on - week. In terms of provincial inventory, the total coniferous log inventory in Shandong ports was 1.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 1.04% from last week; the total coniferous log inventory in Jiangsu ports was 960,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 5.55% from last week [34]. - **Outbound Volume**: As of August 1, 2025, the national average daily outbound volume of logs was 64,200 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 0.16% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.04%. The average daily outbound volume of logs in Shandong was 35,700 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 5.31% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.46%. The average daily outbound volume of logs in Jiangsu was 23,200 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 5.69% and a month - on - month increase of 7.91% [38]. - **Downstream**: As of August 8, 2025, the wood square price in Shandong was 1270 yuan/m³, flat week - on - week; the wood square price in Jiangsu was 1260 yuan/m³, flat week - on - week. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/m³, a decrease of 15 yuan/m³ week - on - week; the processing profit in Jiangsu was - 24 yuan/m³, a decrease of 15 yuan/m³ week - on - week [42].

Core Viewpoint - The successful completion of the LG2507 futures contract delivery marks a significant milestone for the wood futures market, validating the contract rules and regulatory framework, and laying a solid foundation for future market functionality and industry development [1][7]. Delivery Performance - The LG2507 contract operated for 169 trading days, with a total trading volume of 4.3411 million contracts and a transaction value of 321.328 billion yuan, averaging 25,700 contracts traded daily [1]. - In July, 1,281 contracts were delivered, equivalent to 115,290 cubic meters of wood, with total delivery value around 95.33 million yuan [2]. Industry Response - Companies like Shandong Tengnuo Wood Industry Co., Ltd. have utilized the futures market to hedge against rising raw material prices, achieving cost and profit margin stabilization through early delivery [3]. - Jiangsu Huihong International Group implemented a sell hedge strategy on the LG2507 contract, successfully completing 85 contracts, which helped smooth their revenue curve [4]. Quality and Efficiency Improvements - The introduction of standardized measurement and inspection processes has enhanced the quality assurance of delivered wood, reducing subjective quality assessments and improving delivery efficiency [4][5]. - Taicang Xinhai Port Development Co., Ltd. achieved a delivery efficiency of 20 minutes per contract, with a daily average of 30 contracts delivered during peak periods [5]. Market Development Initiatives - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has taken proactive measures to ensure smooth delivery operations, including organizing mock deliveries and enhancing training for market participants [6]. - Future plans include strengthening market regulation, expanding delivery resources, and promoting best practices to enhance industry participation in hedging and trading activities [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of mainstream delivery products shows different trends in different regions, with some remaining flat and some increasing. The European timber spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply. [4] - In August, there are 3 ships departing from New Zealand, with 2 going to the Chinese mainland and 1 going to Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced load. It is expected that about 3 ships will arrive in August and 0 in September, with an expected arrival volume of 1190,000 cubic meters in August. [5][8] - As of the week of August 1st, the daily average shipment volume of some ports has changed, and the total inventory of the four major ports has decreased by 116,200 cubic meters compared with the previous week. [6][12] - As of August 8th, the closing price of the main contract LG2509 has increased by 1.7% compared with last week, and the market has been fluctuating at a relatively high level. The monthly spread trend has shown slight differentiation. [16] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - As of August 3rd, there are 3 ships departing from New Zealand in August, 2 going to the Chinese mainland and 1 going to Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced load. It is expected that about 3 ships will arrive in August and 0 in September, with an expected arrival volume of 1190,000 cubic meters in August. [5][8] 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of August 1st, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 17,600 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 12,400 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 6,000 cubic meters). [6][12] - The inventory of Lanshan Port is about 1,245,300 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 10,500 cubic meters), Taicang Port is about 376,400 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 59,900 cubic meters), Xinminzhou is about 390,300 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 30,800 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port is about 191,800 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 15,000 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports is 2,203,800 cubic meters, a decrease of 116,200 cubic meters compared with the previous week. [6][12] 3.3 Market Trends - As of August 8th, the closing price of the main contract LG2509 was 830.5 yuan per cubic meter, a 1.7% increase compared with last week. The market has been fluctuating at a relatively high level, and the monthly spread trend has shown slight differentiation. The 09 - 11 monthly spread is - 10 yuan per cubic meter, the 09 - 01 monthly spread is - 11 yuan per cubic meter, and the 11 - 01 monthly spread is - 1 yuan per cubic meter. [16] 3.4 Price and Spread - The spot price of logs shows different trends in different regions and specifications, with some remaining flat and some increasing. [20] - The downstream building wood square spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu regions has mostly remained flat compared with last week. [22] - The report presents the regional price differences of mainstream timber species and the price differences between tree species and specifications through data and charts. [23][40] 3.5 Other - As of the week of August 8th, the Baltic Dry Bulk Index BDI was recorded at 2051 points, a 1.6% increase compared with last week; the Handysize Shipping Index BHSI was recorded at 683 points, a 0.7% increase compared with last week; the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI was recorded at 1489.68 points, a 3.9% decrease compared with last week. [6][54][55] - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index has fluctuated narrowly this week. The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate has decreased by 0.4% week - on - week to 7.184, and the US dollar - to - New Zealand dollar exchange rate has decreased by 0.6% to 1.680. [6][54][55]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current price of logs is within a reasonable valuation range. Although the price fluctuates around the warehouse - receipt cost, from a trading perspective, the upward risk - return ratio is better than the downward one [3]. - The data of the 07 contract's delivery situation provides important references for future delivery distribution, including the quantity of delivery items, the proportion of the lowest - cost warehouse receipts, and the approximate range of the average warehouse - receipt cost [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Log Price Forecast and Hedging Strategy - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 820 - 860, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4% [2]. - For inventory management, when log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, it is recommended to short log futures (lg2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 850 - 875 to prevent inventory losses [2]. - For procurement management, when the regular procurement inventory is low, it is recommended to buy log futures (lg2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 810 - 820 to lock in procurement costs [2]. Core Contradiction - The 09 contract is three weeks away from delivery. The 07 contract had a total of 1281 hands delivered, with 63% by truck - board delivery (20% in Lanshan, 55% in Taicang, 24% in Chongqing) and 37% by warehouse - receipt delivery (82% in Lanshan, 18% in Taicang, 0% in Chongqing) [3]. - The spot price and the far - end CFR quote have increased, indicating a rise in delivery costs [3]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: Importers are willing to support prices due to continuous import losses, import costs are rising, the overall sentiment of commodities is improving, and there is an impact from capital [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The peak season is not prosperous, and the shipping volume from foreign suppliers is continuously increasing [6]. Spot and Basis - The report provides detailed spot prices, price changes, and basis data for different specifications of logs at various ports on August 8, 2025, and calculates the converted basis [4][7]. Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation - pine import volume in June 2025 was 1.61 million m³, a decrease of 80,000 m³ from the previous period but a 35.3% increase year - on - year [8]. - **Inventory**: As of August 1, 2025, the total port inventory in China was 3.17 million m³, unchanged from the previous period but a 4.5% decrease year - on - year. The port inventory in Shandong was 1.95 million m³, an increase of 20,000 m³ from the previous period and a 10.5% increase year - on - year. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 0.96 million m³, a decrease of 56,400 m³ from the previous period but an 11.6% increase year - on - year [8]. - **Demand**: As of August 1, 2025, the average daily outbound volume of logs at ports was 64,200 m³, an increase of 100 m³ from the previous period and a 33.2% increase year - on - year. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong was 35,700 m³, an increase of 1,800 m³ from the previous period and a 55.9% increase year - on - year. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu was 23,200 m³, a decrease of 1,400 m³ from the previous period but a 19.0% increase year - on - year [8]. - **Profit**: As of August 8, 2025, the import profit of radiation pine was - 96 yuan/m³, a decrease of 12 yuan/m³ from the previous period. The import profit of spruce was - 87 yuan/m³, an increase of 19 yuan/m³ from the previous period [8]. - **Outer - Market Quote**: The CFR quote on August 8, 2025, was 116 US dollars/JASm³, an increase of 2 US dollars from the previous period but a 1.7% decrease year - on - year [8].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the log industry is "Oscillating" [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The log market is expected to oscillate between 800 - 840 yuan/m³ due to rising foreign quotes and improving domestic demand [4] - Last week, the log futures oscillated between 820 - 840 yuan/m³. The ebbing commodity sentiment and delivery cost based on import prices formed the upper pressure, while the rising August foreign quotes and declining domestic port inventories provided some positive support [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In June 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were about 2.1768 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 15.73%. From January to June 2025, the total imports were about 12.3364 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.97% [4] - **Demand**: From July 21st to July 27th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 64,100 cubic meters, a 2.72% increase from the previous week. Shandong ports had an average daily outbound volume of 33,900 cubic meters, a 0.89% increase, and Jiangsu ports had 24,600 cubic meters, a 6.03% increase [4] - **Inventory**: As of July 25th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, a 120,000 - cubic - meter decrease from the previous week and a 3.65% week - on - week decrease. The radiata pine inventory was 2.57 million cubic meters, a 70,000 - cubic - meter decrease and a 2.65% week - on - week decrease [4] - **Trade Profit**: After the increase in foreign quotes, the profit inversion of traders intensified. As of August 1st, 2025, the trader's profit was - 57 yuan/m³, a slight week - on - week decline [4] - **Valuation**: The spot price of 5.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine was 770 - 780 yuan/m³, equivalent to 780 - 790 yuan/m³ on the futures market, with the futures price at a premium [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading strategy is not provided. The arbitrage strategy is to register spot goods for warehouse receipt delivery. Attention should be paid to domestic demand [4] Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Last week, log futures oscillated between 820 - 840 yuan/m³. The ebbing commodity sentiment and delivery cost based on import prices formed the upper pressure, while the rising August foreign quotes and declining domestic port inventories provided some positive support [7] - **Futures Position**: As of August 1st, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 27,218 lots, a 13.5% decrease from the previous week. The position of the main contract 2509 was 19,584 lots, a 19.6% decrease [12] - **Spot Market**: As of August 1st, 2025, the spot prices of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu showed slight increases. In Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A were 720/740/860 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A were 730/770/930 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A were 720/770/820 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A were 730/780/860 yuan/m³ [16] Part Three: Fundamental Data of Log Supply and Demand - **Import Volume**: In June 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were about 2.1768 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 15.73%. From January to June 2025, the total imports were about 12.3364 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.97%. In June 2025, imports from New Zealand were about 1.6735 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 2.16% and a year - on - year increase of 37.37%. From January to June 2025, imports from New Zealand were about 9.2485 million cubic meters, a 0.91% year - on - year increase. In June 2025, radiata pine imports were about 1.6068 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 4.98% and a year - on - year increase of 34.07%. From January to June 2025, radiata pine imports were about 9.0189 million cubic meters, a 0.55% year - on - year decrease [20] - **Shipping Volume**: As of July 27th, there were 40 ships departing from New Zealand in July, with 35 going to the Chinese mainland and 5 going to Taiwan, China and South Korea for partial unloading. Among them, 16 ships were expected to arrive in July and 24 in August, with an expected arrival volume of 1.63 million cubic meters in July [23] - **Trade Profit**: As of July 2025, the CFR quote for radiata pine was 113 - 115 US dollars/JASm³, equivalent to 795 - 805 yuan/m³ in RMB, and the import profit was about - 57 yuan/m³. In July 2025, the AWG price at New Zealand ports was 117 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, the export cost was about 108 US dollars/JASm³, and the export profit was about 7.6 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [30] - **Inventory**: As of July 25th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, a 3.65% week - on - week decrease. The radiata pine inventory was 2.57 million cubic meters, a 2.65% week - on - week decrease. The North American log inventory was 190,000 cubic meters, a 17.39% week - on - week decrease. The spruce/fir inventory was 200,000 cubic meters, a 10,000 - cubic - meter decrease from the previous week. In terms of provincial inventories, the total coniferous log inventory in Shandong ports was 1.93 million cubic meters, a 0.10% week - on - week decrease, and in Jiangsu ports was 1.0164 million cubic meters, an 8.23% week - on - week decrease [32] - **Outbound Volume**: From July 21st to July 27th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 64,100 cubic meters, a 2.72% increase from the previous week. Shandong ports had an average daily outbound volume of 33,900 cubic meters, a 0.89% increase, and Jiangsu ports had 24,600 cubic meters, a 6.03% increase [36] - **Downstream Market**: As of August 1st, 2025, the wood square prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained flat week - on - week, at 1270 yuan/m³ and 1260 yuan/m³ respectively. The processing profit in Shandong was 31 yuan/m³, and in Jiangsu was - 9.2 yuan/m³, both remaining flat week - on - week [40]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - policy's short - term positive factors are exhausted, and the market will return to fundamental dominance. The technical graph of logs is in the ascending flag consolidation stage with weakening fluctuations, and funds are continuously withdrawing. The market is oscillating around the valuation, and the recent decline has repaired the over - valued situation, with the current valuation at a neutral level. The impact of the earthquake in the Kamchatka Peninsula is minimal, and the spot price is stable. The strategy is to sell lg2509 - p - 800 on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Log Price Range Forecast - The predicted monthly price range for logs is 820 - 860. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 16.28%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 67.4% [2]. 3.2 Log Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short log futures (lg2509) according to their inventory, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 850 - 875 [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, to prevent rising log prices from increasing procurement costs, enterprises can buy log futures (lg2509) at present, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 810 - 820 [2]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - The macro - policy's short - term positive factors are exhausted, and the market will return to fundamental dominance. There is an expectation gap in the policy. The technical graph is in the ascending flag consolidation stage, with weakening fluctuations and continuous capital withdrawal. The market oscillates around the valuation, and the recent decline has repaired the over - valued situation, with the current valuation at a neutral level. The earthquake in the Kamchatka Peninsula has little impact, and the spot price is stable. The strategy is to sell lg2509 - p - 800 on dips [3]. 3.4 Positive Factors - Due to continuous import losses, traders have the intention to jointly support prices [4]. 3.5 Negative Factors - **Spot and Basis**: The document provides detailed spot prices, price changes, and basis data for different specifications of logs at various ports on July 31, 2025. The basis (after conversion) is calculated as the spot price after a 108% increase in length - the main contract's disk price ± the premium or discount [5][8]. - Other negative factors include the "off - peak season" phenomenon and the continuous increase in foreign shipments [7]. 3.6 Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation pine import volume in June 2025 was 1.61 million m³, a decrease of 80,000 m³ from the previous period but a 35.3% increase year - on - year [9]. - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, the national port inventory was 3.17 million m³, a decrease of 120,000 m³ from the previous period and a 3.4% decrease year - on - year. The port inventory in Shandong was 1,930,000 m³, a decrease of 2,000 m³ from the previous period but a 5.8% increase year - on - year. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 1,016,400 m³, a decrease of 91,169 m³ from the previous period and a 21.4% increase year - on - year [9]. - **Demand**: As of July 25, 2025, the daily average log port outbound volume was 64,100 m³, an increase of 1,700 m³ from the previous period and a 27.2% increase year - on - year. The daily average outbound volume in Shandong was 33,900 m³, an increase of 300 m³ from the previous period and a 34.5% increase year - on - year. The daily average outbound volume in Jiangsu was 24,600 m³, an increase of 1,400 m³ from the previous period and a 31.6% increase year - on - year [9]. - **Profit**: As of August 1, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 82 yuan/m³, a decrease of 1 yuan/m³ from the previous period. The spruce import profit was - 95 yuan/m³, an increase of 2 yuan/m³ from the previous period [9]. - **Main Spot Prices**: The spot prices of several specifications of logs on July 31, 2025, remained unchanged from the previous day, with varying year - on - year decreases [9]. - **External Market Quotations**: The CFR on August 1, 2025, was 114 US dollars/JASm³, unchanged from the previous period and a 3.4% decrease year - on - year [9].