1.5°C目标
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对话波兹坦气候影响研究所所长罗克斯特伦:科学已无模糊空间,必须同步淘汰化石能源与修复自然
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-11 23:31
Core Viewpoint - The 30th UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) in Belém, Brazil, emphasizes the urgent need for global action to address climate change, particularly the 1.5°C target set by the Paris Agreement, which is now at risk of being exceeded [3][4]. Group 1: Climate Goals and Challenges - Johan Rockström highlights that humanity is "almost inevitably" entering a phase of overshooting the 1.5°C target, but there is still a chance to return to safety if immediate actions are taken to reverse emission trends and phase out fossil fuels [3][6]. - Current global emissions are still rising, with a scientific consensus that a minimum annual reduction of 5% is necessary to avoid severe climate impacts [6][7]. - Rockström stresses that 1.5°C is not merely a target but a critical limit, and exceeding it poses significant threats to both humanity and the Earth's systems [7][12]. Group 2: Role of Developed Countries - Developed nations must lead by example in reducing emissions and provide financial and technological support for green transitions in developing countries [4][8]. - The need to eliminate approximately $4 trillion in fossil fuel subsidies is crucial to redirecting funds towards risk-free green technology investments [8][9]. - Trust in global cooperation is contingent upon the actions of wealthy countries, which must accelerate their emission reductions and fulfill climate financing commitments [7][10]. Group 3: Technological and Policy Solutions - The transition to zero-carbon solutions in hard-to-abate sectors like aviation and shipping is becoming feasible, but policy incentives are essential for these technologies to compete fairly against fossil fuels [9][10]. - The importance of establishing a robust carbon pricing mechanism is highlighted to ensure sustainable choices are more accessible and affordable [10][11]. - The sixth article of the Paris Agreement regarding carbon markets is seen as necessary but must be implemented with strict accounting standards to prevent misuse [11][12].