Core Insights - The report highlights the updated monthly interest rate timing model, which shows improved predictive accuracy with a success rate of 74% for the recent two years [12][14] - The company Atour (ATAT.O) has raised its full-year retail revenue guidance, with Q2 revenue growing by 37.4% year-on-year to 2.47 billion yuan, exceeding expectations [15][17] - Shenzhen International (00152.HK) reported a revenue of 6.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, with a focus on logistics park transformation projects [18][16] Group 1: Interest Rate Timing Strategy - The updated model incorporates richer factor indicators and adjusts weightings for different types of indicators, enhancing predictive capabilities [14] - Three strategy applications have been designed: basic timing strategy, timing & treasury futures strategy, and timing & leverage strategy, all outperforming longer-duration benchmarks [14] - The timing & leverage strategy achieved a maximum annualized excess return of 128 basis points [14] Group 2: Atour (ATAT.O) Performance - Atour's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with a net profit increase of 39.8% year-on-year to 425 million yuan [15][17] - The company opened 118 new hotels in Q2, maintaining its target of 500 new openings for the year [15][17] - Retail business GMV reached 1.144 billion yuan in Q2, a year-on-year growth of 84.6%, with online sales accounting for over 90% [15][17] Group 3: Shenzhen International (00152.HK) Insights - The company’s logistics park transformation and asset securitization strategies are expected to enhance earnings resilience [18][16] - For 2025-2027, net profit forecasts are 3.081 billion, 3.430 billion, and 3.925 billion HKD, with a dividend yield projected at 8.3%, 9.3%, and 10.6% respectively [18][16] - The logistics park business reported a revenue of 785 million HKD in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [18][16] Group 4: Steel Industry Performance - Baosteel (600019) reported steady growth with high dividend maintenance, while Hualing Steel (000932) saw a significant increase in high-end product sales [20][24] - The steel industry is experiencing a shift towards high-end products, with companies like Zhongxin Special Steel (000708) maintaining stable performance [26] - The overall steel market is expected to benefit from reduced raw material costs and improved product structures, leading to enhanced profitability [24][26]

Core Insights - The report updates the monthly timing model for 10-year government bond yields, enhancing the quantitative prediction model based on historical similarity to supplement subjective decision-making [2][12][82] - The new model incorporates additional factor indicators such as external pressures and asset pricing, assigns differentiated weights to various factors, and adjusts seasonal handling to improve accuracy [12][82] - The updated model shows improved predictive accuracy, achieving a directional prediction success rate of 68% from January 2019 to July 2025, with a higher rate of 74% in the last two years [2][82] Factor Selection and Weighting - The model selects indicators that reflect month-on-month changes and exhibit mean-reversion characteristics, including manufacturing PMI, PPI, and DR007 [15][19][26] - The weighting of factors is differentiated, with manufacturing PMI and PPI receiving full weight, while seasonal factors and asset pricing are assigned lower weights [16][36][47] - The model emphasizes timely updates, allowing predictions to be made before the beginning of each month [18][82] Model Performance and Strategy Backtesting - The model's performance is validated through backtesting, demonstrating that timing strategies outperform longer-duration benchmarks since 2019 [4][84] - Three types of strategies are designed based on the timing model: basic timing strategy, timing with government bond futures, and timing with leverage [4][84] - The backtesting results indicate that the leveraged timing strategy can achieve an annualized excess return of up to 128 basis points, with favorable risk-return metrics [4][84] Summary of Findings - The updated model maintains its timeliness and predictive capability, allowing for the calculation of the next month's yield center direction at the end of each month [2][82] - The model's limitations include challenges in accurately predicting the magnitude of yield center changes, but it still contributes positively to investment returns [4][84] - Overall, the report concludes that the updated timing model and its associated strategies provide significant advantages in enhancing bond investment returns [84]