Core Viewpoint - The possibility of continued high mortgage rates is a significant concern for homeowners and potential buyers, as indicated by former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, who suggests that long-term rates are more likely to rise due to fiscal pressures on the economy [1] Mortgage Rate Trends - As of mid-October, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.19%, a decrease from 6.44% at the same time last year [3] - Mortgage rates have remained elevated since 2022, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increasing from 3.45% in January 2022 to 6.42% by December 2022, and rates have not dipped below 6% since then [3] Economic Impact - High mortgage rates have contributed to an affordability crisis in the housing market, leading to slow new home sales in 2025, with Fannie Mae projecting total home sales in 2025 to be lower than in 2024 [5] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes in response to inflation in 2022 have influenced mortgage rates, which are indirectly affected by the interest rates set by the Fed [4] Future Projections - Predictions for mortgage rates in 2025 and 2026 are more optimistic than Summers' outlook, with Fannie Mae forecasting a decline to 5.9% by the end of 2026, although Freddie Mac anticipates a potential increase to 6.4% by December 2025 [6]

It's time now for the big picture. Let's welcome in Colin Martin, director and fixed income strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research. Very good morning to you, Colin.Happy Friday. So, no surprises there from the PCE data. Does that set us up for two more cuts.>> Uh, we're not sure just yet. You know, if we look at this morning's release, no surprises, I think, is a good thing. We're looking to make sure we're not seeing any reaceleration or significant reaceleration in inflation right now.So even th ...

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points now, with potential for two more cuts by the end of the year, leading to a year-end target for Fed funds at no higher than 3.63% [2][3] - Concerns are raised about the near disappearance of job growth in the US economy, which may necessitate continued rate cuts unless satisfactory job growth resumes [3][10] Consumer Spending and Sentiment - Consumer spending is projected to slow, with expectations of disinflation resuming in early 2026, despite recent reports indicating growth in retail sales for August [4][8] - A significant drop in consumer sentiment was noted, with early September readings from the University of Michigan in the bottom 1.5% of all monthly readings since 1878, indicating increased consumer worry about the future [7][10] Labor Market Dynamics - There is a disconnect between the labor market and consumer sentiment, with consumer spending remaining resilient despite weak job growth readings [10][14] - For consumer spending to remain robust, job growth needs to increase by approximately 100,000 jobs or more per month; otherwise, it may negatively impact consumer spending [14] Holiday Season Expectations - The holiday season is anticipated to be average, with upper-income households likely to perform better, while middle and lower-income households may face spending challenges due to inflation and stagnant income growth [12][13] - The impact of tariffs and price hikes is expected to affect consumer behavior, particularly among households with multiple children who may be more conservative with their holiday spending [12][13]

Mortgage rates have been fluctuating over the past month, but all the changes have been small. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped by three basis points this week — but it’s still one basis point higher than this time last month. Stagnant rates may leave you wondering: Is it a good time to buy a house? In this article: Are mortgage rates dropping? As of Oct. 16, Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate had fallen by three basis points to 6.27%. ...

Mortgage rates have been gradually decreasing, and according to Freddie Mac, they’ve decreased for four straight weeks. The Federal Reserve also just cut the federal funds rate for the second month in a row.These factors may leave you wondering: Will another Fed rate cut lead to even lower mortgage rates? And does that mean it’s a good time to buy a house? Are mortgage rates dropping? As of Oct. 30, Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate had fallen by two basis points to ...

Mortgage rates have been fluctuating over the past month, but all the changes have been small. This week, interest rates have finally made a more noticeable dip. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped by eight basis points this week to their lowest point in a year. Lower rates may leave you wondering: Is it a good time to buy a house? In this article: Are mortgage rates dropping? As of Oct. 23, Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate had fallen b ...

After two consecutive weeks of increases, mortgage rates have finally decreased this week. The 30-year fixed rate is now two basis points lower than this time last year — but will they continue to trend downward? These small declines may leave you wondering: Is it a good time to buy a house? Learn how a government shutdown impacts mortgage rates. In this article: Are mortgage rates dropping? As of Oct. 9, Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate had fallen by four basis poi ...