Core Viewpoint - The prediction that housing prices will rise to 4-5 times their current levels by 2030 is deemed exaggerated and lacks reliable factual support, with mainstream forecasts suggesting more moderate increases instead [1][9][17]. Source of Predictions - The prediction of housing prices reaching 4-5 times is based on three main sources: a report from a real estate consulting firm, a personal opinion article, and a viral video from a self-proclaimed expert, with varying degrees of credibility [2]. Factors Influencing Housing Prices - Population changes are a key factor, with China's population expected to stabilize around 1.45 billion by 2030, leading to a gradual slowdown in housing demand growth [4]. - The reform of the household registration system has facilitated population movement and housing demand, with 47 cities adjusting their policies in 2024 and more following in 2025 [5]. - Economic growth and income levels are crucial, with GDP growth projected at 4.5%-5% annually and urban residents' disposable income increasing by 4%-4.5% [5]. - Land supply and housing policies are also significant, with a 7.3% increase in residential land supply in 2024 and an 8.1% increase in early 2025, contributing to price stability [5]. - Financial environment and monetary policy adjustments, such as reduced mortgage rates, provide liquidity support to the housing market [5]. Mainstream Predictions for 2030 - Optimistic forecasts suggest an average national price increase of 80%-120%, with some hot city areas potentially rising to 2-3 times current prices [8]. - Neutral predictions estimate a 40%-60% increase, while cautious forecasts predict a maximum increase of 30%, with some cities possibly experiencing price declines [8]. Issues with Extreme Predictions - Predictions of a 4-5 times increase often rely on simplistic historical extrapolation, ignoring the current economic and market conditions [9]. - They tend to overlook income growth constraints, as rising prices beyond income growth can lead to market imbalances [9]. - These predictions underestimate the impact of policy regulations aimed at stabilizing housing prices [11]. - They may be based on specific regions or periods that do not represent broader market trends [11]. Recommendations for Housing Decisions - Emphasizing the residential nature of housing, with 75.3% of respondents prioritizing basic living needs over investment [12]. - Advising financial planning to ensure housing costs remain within 30%-40% of household income [12]. - Encouraging consideration of city development plans and location choices, as these factors significantly influence future price trends [12]. - Suggesting diversification of investment to mitigate risks associated with real estate [12]. - Promoting rational decision-making, avoiding panic or blind adherence to extreme predictions [13]. Market Trends and Future Considerations - Noting potential regional price differentiation, with about 20% of cities expected to see rapid growth, 60% moderate increases, and 20% declines [15]. - Highlighting the impact of urbanization and the shift in housing demand due to technological advancements and climate change [16].