Core Viewpoint - The prediction that housing prices will rise to 4-5 times their current levels by 2030 is deemed exaggerated and lacks reliable factual support, with mainstream forecasts suggesting more moderate increases instead [1][9][17]. Source of Predictions - The prediction of housing prices reaching 4-5 times is based on three main sources: a report from a real estate consulting firm, a personal opinion article, and a viral video from a self-proclaimed expert, with varying degrees of credibility [2]. Factors Influencing Housing Prices - Population changes are a key factor, with China's population expected to stabilize around 1.45 billion by 2030, leading to a gradual slowdown in housing demand growth [4]. - The reform of the household registration system has facilitated population movement and housing demand, with 47 cities adjusting their policies in 2024 and more following in 2025 [5]. - Economic growth and income levels are crucial, with GDP growth projected at 4.5%-5% annually and urban residents' disposable income increasing by 4%-4.5% [5]. - Land supply and housing policies are also significant, with a 7.3% increase in residential land supply in 2024 and an 8.1% increase in early 2025, contributing to price stability [5]. - Financial environment and monetary policy adjustments, such as reduced mortgage rates, provide liquidity support to the housing market [5]. Mainstream Predictions for 2030 - Optimistic forecasts suggest an average national price increase of 80%-120%, with some hot city areas potentially rising to 2-3 times current prices [8]. - Neutral predictions estimate a 40%-60% increase, while cautious forecasts predict a maximum increase of 30%, with some cities possibly experiencing price declines [8]. Issues with Extreme Predictions - Predictions of a 4-5 times increase often rely on simplistic historical extrapolation, ignoring the current economic and market conditions [9]. - They tend to overlook income growth constraints, as rising prices beyond income growth can lead to market imbalances [9]. - These predictions underestimate the impact of policy regulations aimed at stabilizing housing prices [11]. - They may be based on specific regions or periods that do not represent broader market trends [11]. Recommendations for Housing Decisions - Emphasizing the residential nature of housing, with 75.3% of respondents prioritizing basic living needs over investment [12]. - Advising financial planning to ensure housing costs remain within 30%-40% of household income [12]. - Encouraging consideration of city development plans and location choices, as these factors significantly influence future price trends [12]. - Suggesting diversification of investment to mitigate risks associated with real estate [12]. - Promoting rational decision-making, avoiding panic or blind adherence to extreme predictions [13]. Market Trends and Future Considerations - Noting potential regional price differentiation, with about 20% of cities expected to see rapid growth, 60% moderate increases, and 20% declines [15]. - Highlighting the impact of urbanization and the shift in housing demand due to technological advancements and climate change [16].

Core Viewpoint - The trajectory of urbanization in countries like the UK, the US, and Taiwan indicates that once urbanization reaches a turning point, the number of real estate companies typically decreases by 80% to 90% compared to peak levels. Recent stabilization in Chinese housing prices may be temporary, and caution is advised as over 80% of real estate and construction companies are expected to exit the market in the future [1][2][3]. Group 1: Real Estate Risks - The discussion of real estate risks encompasses four main types: operational risks for real estate companies, financial risks related to bank and trust company debts, risks to homeowners' rights, and macroeconomic risks stemming from decreased real estate investment and related consumption [2][3]. - The operational risk arises from continuous declines in housing prices, potentially leading to a wave of bankruptcies among real estate firms [2]. - Financial risks include the debt crises that may arise from the collapse of real estate companies, impacting banks and trust companies [3]. - Homeowners face risks if they purchase properties from companies on the verge of bankruptcy, which could lead to unfulfilled housing deliveries and social instability [3]. - Macroeconomic risks are linked to reduced real estate development investments and a decline in related consumer spending, which could result in insufficient overall demand [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The Chinese government has issued trillions of yuan in special bonds to mitigate real estate risks, focusing on ensuring housing delivery and preventing financial and macroeconomic risks rather than solely rescuing real estate companies [3][4]. - Historical patterns show that as urbanization slows, most real estate companies tend to either exit the market or transition into specialized property management firms, with a significant reduction in the number of active companies [3][4]. - The transition for over 80% of construction and urban investment companies is expected to be challenging, as many are burdened with significant debts and may face insolvency [4]. - The current transformation of real estate and construction companies in China is still in its early stages, and until excess supply is cleared, housing prices are unlikely to stabilize fully [4]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Housing Prices - Five key factors are identified as determinants of housing price trends: growth in disposable income, population and urbanization dynamics, land and real estate supply, financial conditions in the real estate sector, and asset allocation behaviors [5][6]. - An increase in residents' income supports housing price increases, while a decline does not [5]. - Population growth in urban areas typically leads to rising housing prices, whereas population decline can result in price drops [6]. - An oversupply of new and second-hand properties tends to drive prices down, while limited supply can lead to price recovery [6]. - Favorable financial conditions, such as low interest rates and down payment requirements, can stimulate housing price increases, while restrictive conditions can have the opposite effect [6]. - The overall housing market dynamics in China have evolved significantly over the past two decades, making it challenging for prices to maintain upward momentum [5]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - Relying solely on fiscal measures to address real estate debt risks is unsustainable; a more market-oriented approach, such as significantly lowering interest rates, could reduce mortgage costs for buyers and financing costs for real estate companies [8][9]. - To achieve genuine stabilization and recovery in housing prices, policies should focus on increasing disposable income, promoting population growth, managing land supply, and reducing interest rates [9]. - Recent policy changes, such as lifting purchase restrictions in certain areas, may provide opportunities for market recovery, but comprehensive measures are needed to stimulate demand and support price stabilization [9].