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YPF(YPF) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-08-08 14:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q2 2025, revenue remained stable at over $4.6 billion, with a 6% decline year-over-year despite a 20% drop in Brent prices [24][25] - Adjusted EBITDA was $1.12 billion, decreasing 10% sequentially and 7% year-over-year, primarily due to Brent price volatility and the exit from mature fields [25][26] - Q2 net profit was $58 million, a turnaround from a loss of $10 million in the previous quarter, but a sharp decline year-over-year due to higher depreciation and tax charges [26][27] - Free cash flow was negative at $355 million, impacted by mature fields and negative working capital [29][43] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total hydrocarbon production was stable at 546,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, with shale production representing 62% of total output [31] - Crude oil production decreased by 8% sequentially to 248,000 barrels per day, while shale oil production increased by 28% year-over-year [32][33] - Natural gas production increased by 6% sequentially to 40 million cubic meters per day, driven by seasonal demand [34] - Lifting costs decreased to $12.3 per barrel of oil equivalent, a 19% reduction sequentially [34] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Oil exports increased by 20% sequentially to 44,000 barrels per day, with a 43% year-over-year growth [33] - Local fuel prices decreased by 8% sequentially and 10% year-over-year, reflecting Brent price volatility [40] - Fuel sales volume grew by 4% sequentially, primarily due to seasonal demand recovery [40] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on its 4x4 plan, emphasizing profitable operations in Vaca Muerta and divesting from mature fields [4][6] - A significant milestone was achieved with the financial closing of the BeMos project, which is expected to enhance production capacity [8][9] - The company aims to become a pure unconventional player by divesting conventional assets and focusing on high-potential shale operations [14][16] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by international price volatility but emphasized the resilience of the 4x4 plan [4][5] - The company expects to ramp up shale oil production significantly, targeting 190,000 barrels per day by the end of 2025 [7][8] - Management expressed confidence in achieving operational efficiencies and maintaining a strong market position despite external challenges [20][22] Other Important Information - The company secured a $2 billion syndicated loan for the BeMos project, marking a significant achievement in infrastructure financing in Argentina [9] - Moody's upgraded the company's credit rating from CAA1 to B2, reflecting improved financial stability [47] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on development plans and acquisition impact - Management confirmed the acquisition of a high-potential field in Vaca Muerta, which is expected to enhance profitability and production [50][51] Question: Expectations for Phase one and Phase two of the project - Management indicated that Phase one is nearing completion, with expectations for good news regarding final approvals [59][60] Question: CapEx guidance and equity contributions - Management confirmed that CapEx guidance remains unchanged, with ongoing contributions to Vaca Muerta projects [69][70] Question: Proceeds from divesting conventional assets - Management refrained from providing specific figures but expressed confidence in achieving favorable returns from divestitures [75][76] Question: Competitive M&A landscape in Vaca Muerta - Management noted limited competition for available assets, with most companies focused on development [77][78] Question: Timeline for investing in the Total acquisition area - Management stated that development plans will be discussed with partners, aiming for synergies to reduce costs [82][84]