May 20, 2025 06:44 PM GMT China Economics Mid-Year Outlook Lingering Deflation Despite Tariff Detente We revise our 2025 GDP forecast upward by 30 bps to 4.5% due to reduced tariff headwinds. But deflation persists, as structural issues (housing, consumption) continue to exert downward pressure on prices. We expect lighter, delayed stimulus focused on infrastructure. Milder growth slowdown amid lower tariffs: 2025/26 GDP growth raised to 4.5%/4.2% YoY (vs. 4.2%/4.0%Y previously). We now see GDP YoY stabiliz ...