Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the July CPI data in the U.S. shows a mixed picture, with overall CPI remaining stable while core CPI has increased, indicating potential challenges for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3][9] - In July, the U.S. CPI year-on-year remained at 2.7%, slightly below the expected 2.8%, while core CPI rose from 2.9% to 3.1%, exceeding expectations [18][9] - The "super core" service CPI increased from 3.0% to 3.2%, suggesting a potential shift in inflation dynamics that could complicate the Fed's decision-making regarding interest rates [2][3][9] Group 2 - The impact of tariffs on CPI is varied, with some categories showing significant price increases while others have weakened, indicating a complex relationship between tariffs and inflation [4][10] - As of July, it is estimated that tariffs have already influenced core commodity prices by approximately 40% to 74%, depending on the assumptions made about price trends without tariffs [10][11] - If the overall tariff rate rises to 15.3%, the remaining unaccounted tariff impact on core commodity prices could add 0.14 to 0.2 percentage points to overall CPI [5][11] Group 3 - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have surged, with probabilities reaching 96% following the July CPI report and weak employment data [6][14][26] - Historical data suggests that when market expectations for rate cuts exceed 90%, the Federal Reserve has consistently followed through with actual cuts [16][17] - Despite the high probability of a rate cut, ongoing inflation pressures and employment data volatility may lead to increased uncertainty in future monetary policy [16][26]