Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US July CPI data aligns with expectations, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.7% in the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a 3.1% increase in core CPI, which eases concerns about inflation due to President Trump's tariff policies [1] - The Federal Reserve's Chairman Powell indicated a reasonable wait-and-see approach, and the mild inflation data, along with weak employment data from the previous month, supports the rationale for easing monetary policy [1] - The market anticipates two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year, each by 25 basis points [1] Group 2 - Despite expectations for rate cuts to lower long-term US Treasury yields, the yield curve has steepened since the July CPI data release, indicating a decline in short-term yields and an increase in long-term yields [1] - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have arisen following Trump's criticism and recent personnel changes at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which could disrupt market confidence in long-term US Treasury securities [2] - Historical precedents show that if the Federal Reserve's rate cuts are less than the market's current pricing expectations, long-term yields may rise, as seen when the 10-year Treasury yield increased from approximately 3.7% to 4.6% despite a smaller-than-expected rate cut last year [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the July CPI data in the U.S. shows a mixed picture, with overall CPI remaining stable while core CPI has increased, indicating potential challenges for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3][9] - In July, the U.S. CPI year-on-year remained at 2.7%, slightly below the expected 2.8%, while core CPI rose from 2.9% to 3.1%, exceeding expectations [18][9] - The "super core" service CPI increased from 3.0% to 3.2%, suggesting a potential shift in inflation dynamics that could complicate the Fed's decision-making regarding interest rates [2][3][9] Group 2 - The impact of tariffs on CPI is varied, with some categories showing significant price increases while others have weakened, indicating a complex relationship between tariffs and inflation [4][10] - As of July, it is estimated that tariffs have already influenced core commodity prices by approximately 40% to 74%, depending on the assumptions made about price trends without tariffs [10][11] - If the overall tariff rate rises to 15.3%, the remaining unaccounted tariff impact on core commodity prices could add 0.14 to 0.2 percentage points to overall CPI [5][11] Group 3 - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have surged, with probabilities reaching 96% following the July CPI report and weak employment data [6][14][26] - Historical data suggests that when market expectations for rate cuts exceed 90%, the Federal Reserve has consistently followed through with actual cuts [16][17] - Despite the high probability of a rate cut, ongoing inflation pressures and employment data volatility may lead to increased uncertainty in future monetary policy [16][26]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are under pressure due to uncertainty in tariff policies and rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while also being at a critical turning point [1] - The market focus this week will be on the U.S. July CPI data, with expectations leaning towards increased inflation, which could negatively impact gold prices [1] - Gold futures experienced a significant drop after reaching a historical high of $3534.10, influenced by rumors regarding tariff policies on gold bars [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis suggests that gold has the potential to rise towards the 3400-3420 range, with MACD indicators showing signs of a bullish crossover [2] - The recent upward trend in gold prices indicates that previous declines may have been corrective in nature, and further bullish momentum is expected until the upward trend concludes [2] - Recommendations for trading strategies include buying near 3330 with a target of 3340-3350 and selling near 3380 with a target of 3370-3360 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Lead smelting production cuts support prices [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,885 yuan/ton, up 0.24%, and the closing price of the LME lead 3M electronic disk was 2,003.5 dollars/ton, down 0.17% [1] - **Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract was 35,623 lots, an increase of 4,615 lots, and the trading volume of the LME lead was 5,355 lots, a decrease of 456 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai lead main contract was 54,395 lots, a decrease of 4,728 lots, and the open interest of the LME lead was 151,551 lots, an increase of 354 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium and discount of Shanghai 1 lead was -35 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium and discount was -31.29 dollars/ton, an increase of 2.23 dollars/ton [1] - **Import and Export Profit and Loss**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -658.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.07 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous three was -642.44 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.86 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 58,683 tons, an increase of 201 tons; the LME lead inventory was 265,800 tons, a decrease of 2,575 tons [1] - **Recycled Lead**: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,175 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of recycled refined lead was 16,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -378 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 News - Investors are waiting for the US July CPI data on Tuesday to find clues on whether the Fed can restart interest rate cuts in September [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to reports that China hopes the US will relax export controls on high - bandwidth memory chips, stating that China opposes politicizing, instrumentalizing, and weaponizing science, technology, and economic and trade issues [1] 3.3 Lead Trend Intensity - The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value ranging from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1]

Group 1 - The macroeconomic outlook is improving, supporting risk assets including cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin expected to break its historical high this month [1] - Bitcoin has rebounded by 4.5% since Saturday, trading just below its historical high of $122,838 set on July 14 [1] - The increase in open contracts by 7,834 Bitcoin and a surge in spot and perpetual contract buying indicate that the recent price rise is driven by speculative long positions [1] Group 2 - The upcoming US July CPI data is drawing market attention, with expectations of a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, up from 2.7% in June [2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is expected to rise by 3% year-on-year, higher than June's 2.9% [2] - There is a growing demand for put options, indicating market concerns over potential unexpected inflation increases, which could lead to a "mini panic" and a sharp decline [2]