财华社8月15日讯，景顺亚太区环球市场策略师赵耀庭昨日（14日）发布了关于美国7月CPI数据的观 点。 来源：财华网 赵耀庭认为,美国7月的通胀数据符合预期，整体消费者物价指数（CPI）按年上升2.7%，核心CPI（食品 和能源除外）按年上升3.1%。这次不算过热的CPI数据纾缓了投资者对美国总统特朗普的关税政策或将 推高通胀的忧虑。核心商品价格按月仅上升0.2%，与上月升幅一致。 虽然美国联储局主席鲍威尔在7月联邦公开市场委员会新闻发布会上表示联储局采取观望态度是合理 的，但这次温和的通胀数据，加上上个月疲弱的就业数据，为放宽货币政策提供了支持的理据。市场将 密切关注鲍威尔下周在杰克森霍尔（Jackson Hole）研讨会上的主题演讲，该会议历来被视为联储局未 来几个月政策方向的指标。基本预期维持为联储局将于今年年底前实施两次降息，每次25个点子。 赵耀庭指出，减息预期本应推动长期美国国债孳息率下降，但实际情况并非如此。相反，自7月CPI数 据公布以来，美国国债孳息率曲线反而变得更加陡峭。这种「扭曲走峭」，即是短期孳息率下降、长期 孳息率上升，很大程度上是由于特朗普在社交媒体上的言论以及对鲍威尔职位构成的影 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the July CPI data in the U.S. shows a mixed picture, with overall CPI remaining stable while core CPI has increased, indicating potential challenges for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3][9] - In July, the U.S. CPI year-on-year remained at 2.7%, slightly below the expected 2.8%, while core CPI rose from 2.9% to 3.1%, exceeding expectations [18][9] - The "super core" service CPI increased from 3.0% to 3.2%, suggesting a potential shift in inflation dynamics that could complicate the Fed's decision-making regarding interest rates [2][3][9] Group 2 - The impact of tariffs on CPI is varied, with some categories showing significant price increases while others have weakened, indicating a complex relationship between tariffs and inflation [4][10] - As of July, it is estimated that tariffs have already influenced core commodity prices by approximately 40% to 74%, depending on the assumptions made about price trends without tariffs [10][11] - If the overall tariff rate rises to 15.3%, the remaining unaccounted tariff impact on core commodity prices could add 0.14 to 0.2 percentage points to overall CPI [5][11] Group 3 - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have surged, with probabilities reaching 96% following the July CPI report and weak employment data [6][14][26] - Historical data suggests that when market expectations for rate cuts exceed 90%, the Federal Reserve has consistently followed through with actual cuts [16][17] - Despite the high probability of a rate cut, ongoing inflation pressures and employment data volatility may lead to increased uncertainty in future monetary policy [16][26]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are under pressure due to uncertainty in tariff policies and rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while also being at a critical turning point [1] - The market focus this week will be on the U.S. July CPI data, with expectations leaning towards increased inflation, which could negatively impact gold prices [1] - Gold futures experienced a significant drop after reaching a historical high of $3534.10, influenced by rumors regarding tariff policies on gold bars [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis suggests that gold has the potential to rise towards the 3400-3420 range, with MACD indicators showing signs of a bullish crossover [2] - The recent upward trend in gold prices indicates that previous declines may have been corrective in nature, and further bullish momentum is expected until the upward trend concludes [2] - Recommendations for trading strategies include buying near 3330 with a target of 3340-3350 and selling near 3380 with a target of 3370-3360 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Lead smelting production cuts support prices [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,885 yuan/ton, up 0.24%, and the closing price of the LME lead 3M electronic disk was 2,003.5 dollars/ton, down 0.17% [1] - **Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract was 35,623 lots, an increase of 4,615 lots, and the trading volume of the LME lead was 5,355 lots, a decrease of 456 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai lead main contract was 54,395 lots, a decrease of 4,728 lots, and the open interest of the LME lead was 151,551 lots, an increase of 354 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium and discount of Shanghai 1 lead was -35 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium and discount was -31.29 dollars/ton, an increase of 2.23 dollars/ton [1] - **Import and Export Profit and Loss**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -658.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.07 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous three was -642.44 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.86 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 58,683 tons, an increase of 201 tons; the LME lead inventory was 265,800 tons, a decrease of 2,575 tons [1] - **Recycled Lead**: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,175 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of recycled refined lead was 16,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -378 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 News - Investors are waiting for the US July CPI data on Tuesday to find clues on whether the Fed can restart interest rate cuts in September [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to reports that China hopes the US will relax export controls on high - bandwidth memory chips, stating that China opposes politicizing, instrumentalizing, and weaponizing science, technology, and economic and trade issues [1] 3.3 Lead Trend Intensity - The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value ranging from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1]

Group 1 - The macroeconomic outlook is improving, supporting risk assets including cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin expected to break its historical high this month [1] - Bitcoin has rebounded by 4.5% since Saturday, trading just below its historical high of $122,838 set on July 14 [1] - The increase in open contracts by 7,834 Bitcoin and a surge in spot and perpetual contract buying indicate that the recent price rise is driven by speculative long positions [1] Group 2 - The upcoming US July CPI data is drawing market attention, with expectations of a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, up from 2.7% in June [2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is expected to rise by 3% year-on-year, higher than June's 2.9% [2] - There is a growing demand for put options, indicating market concerns over potential unexpected inflation increases, which could lead to a "mini panic" and a sharp decline [2]