A股和港股超级长牛

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兴业证券张忆东:A股、港股会走出20年超级牛市 类似地产20年牛市
智通财经网· 2025-09-04 23:22
Group 1 - The core argument is that both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are expected to enter a super bull market lasting over 20 years, driven by the transformation of China's economic growth model [20][21][35] - The current market dynamics are characterized by a "long bull market" rather than a "crazy bull market," emphasizing gradual growth and adjustments [4][52] - The role of the state, referred to as the "visible hand," is crucial in guiding the market, learning from past experiences to avoid excessive leverage and ensure stability [5][51][63] Group 2 - The characteristics of the Hong Kong market include embracing national development and benefiting from the reallocation of social wealth from safe assets to equities [15][70][72] - The ecological environment in Hong Kong is improving, with a shift from a focus on risk-averse assets to growth-oriented investments, particularly in technology and new consumption sectors [74][84] - The investment logic in Hong Kong is transitioning from foreign-led offshore market dynamics to a more localized onshore market driven by domestic and regional investors [84][87] Group 3 - The transformation of China's economic model is essential for high-quality development, moving away from debt-driven growth to a focus on innovation and direct financing [23][29][30] - The capital market is expected to play a pivotal role in revitalizing assets and optimizing resource allocation, similar to the role of real estate in the past [32][34][60] - The long-term bull market is anticipated to be supported by the continuous influx of domestic capital and the gradual improvement of the investment environment [19][19][66]