A股流动性指数

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西部证券:券商股最受益有望继续表现 2025年将实现48%左右盈利增速
智通财经网· 2025-09-05 03:19
Core Viewpoint - The report from Western Securities indicates that the trend of residents "moving deposits" is expected to continue due to asset scarcity and the profit-making effect of the stock market, benefiting brokerage stocks significantly in the future [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Various funds are currently entering the market, with insurance companies increasing their stock allocation, and public fund issuance/net subscriptions showing signs of recovery [1]. - As of the end of Q2 2025, the balance of funds utilized by insurance companies reached 36.2 trillion yuan, with 3.1 trillion yuan invested in stocks, marking a 1.7 percentage point increase to 8.5% compared to Q2 2024 [1]. - The ratio of total market capitalization to residents' deposits has remained low at 0.59 as of July 2025, indicating significant room for growth compared to the peak in 2015 [2]. Group 2: Brokerage Stocks Performance - The liquidity index of A-shares has shown a rapid increase, correlating highly with the median rise of brokerage stocks, suggesting that brokerage stocks are likely to continue performing well as liquidity improves [3]. - Since the transition from bear to bull market on July 10, 2024, brokerage stocks have risen by 74% as of August 31, 2024, indicating strong potential for further gains if resident funds continue to flow into the market [3]. Group 3: Trading Activity Indicators - Historical analysis shows that the maximum turnover rate of the Wind All A index can serve as a synchronous indicator for the peak of brokerage stocks, with the highest turnover rate recorded at 4.21% during July to November 2024 [4]. - The maximum turnover rate observed since the rise of brokerage stocks this year was 2.82%, occurring on August 27, suggesting that there is still potential for turnover rates to increase further under the current favorable market conditions [4].