Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company with a target price of 11.91 CNY per share [6][12]. Core Insights - The company's performance in 2025 aligns with the pre-announcement, driven by investment and brokerage businesses, leading to rapid profit growth. As a large brokerage firm with a strong wealth management label, the company is expected to benefit from the trend of residents moving their deposits [2][12]. - The company achieved a net profit of 5.634 billion CNY in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 68%. Adjusted revenue (operating income minus other business costs) was 15.358 billion CNY, up 26% year-on-year [12]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 6.583 billion CNY, 7.371 billion CNY, and 8.091 billion CNY for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17%, 12%, and 10% [12]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - Operating revenue for 2024 is projected at 19.19 billion CNY, with a decrease to 15.358 billion CNY in 2025, followed by a recovery to 17.261 billion CNY in 2026 [4][13]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 3.35 billion CNY in 2024 to 5.634 billion CNY in 2025, and further to 6.583 billion CNY in 2026 [4][13]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is forecasted to increase from 0.39 CNY in 2024 to 0.66 CNY in 2025, and reach 0.77 CNY in 2026 [4][13]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - The ROE is expected to improve from 4.1% in 2024 to 6.8% in 2025, and further to 7.5% in 2026 [4][13]. Business Segments - **Revenue Breakdown**: - In 2025, the company generated revenue from investment (6.99 billion CNY), brokerage (2.92 billion CNY), investment banking (1.5 billion CNY), and asset management (1.36 billion CNY), with year-on-year growth rates of 40%, 16%, 29%, and 1% respectively [12]. - **Asset Management**: - The asset management segment contributed 9.3 billion CNY in profit in 2025, with a profit share of 16.5%. The company’s public fund subsidiary is expected to see improved profitability as the public fund industry undergoes reforms [12].

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for February 2026 shows a stable growth in social financing and a recovery in corporate financing demand, supported by proactive government policies and a loose liquidity environment [4][6]. Group 1: Financial Data Overview - Social financing growth remains high at 8.2%, with new social financing of 2.38 trillion yuan, an increase of 146.9 billion yuan year-on-year [4][6]. - M2 growth is steady at 9.0%, while M1 growth has increased to 5.9%, indicating a narrowing gap between the two [5][15]. - The total amount of new loans in February is 900 billion yuan, a decrease of 110 billion yuan year-on-year [10]. Group 2: Policy and Market Dynamics - Government bond issuance has been front-loaded, with net financing reaching 2.38 trillion yuan in the first two months, supporting social financing growth [4][9]. - The central bank is expected to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, including potential interest rate cuts [6][9]. - Direct financing has shown a mixed performance, with corporate bond financing decreasing while stock financing has improved [9]. Group 3: Credit Trends - Credit growth is slowing, primarily due to a decline in household loans, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.6 trillion yuan in February [10][11]. - Corporate short-term and medium-to-long-term loans have increased, with new corporate loans totaling 1.49 trillion yuan, up by 450 billion yuan year-on-year [10][11]. - The real estate market shows structural differentiation, with new home prices rising by 2.37% year-on-year while second-hand home prices fell by 8.78% [13]. Group 4: Deposits and Savings Behavior - Resident deposits increased by 3.11 trillion yuan, up by 2.5 trillion yuan year-on-year, indicating a continued trend of "deposit migration" [6][16]. - Non-bank deposits increased by 1.39 trillion yuan, reflecting a shift in savings behavior due to lower interest rates on traditional savings products [16]. - The M2-M1 gap has narrowed to 3.1 percentage points, suggesting improved liquidity conditions, although the extent of this improvement remains to be observed [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the report is the analysis of China's financial data for February 2026, highlighting the trends in money supply, social financing, and loan growth, which indicate a mixed economic outlook with improvements in corporate loans but declines in household loans [1][9]. Group 1: Money Supply - M1 growth increased to 5.9% year-on-year, up from 4.9% previously, while M2 growth remained stable at 9.0% [1][9]. - The rise in M1 is attributed to a significant increase in M0 growth to 14.1%, influenced by seasonal factors such as the Spring Festival [12]. - M2 growth is supported by increased foreign exchange reserves and faster fiscal spending, despite a decrease in loan growth impacting credit-derived money supply [14]. Group 2: Social Financing - New social financing in February reached 2.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 146.1 billion yuan year-on-year, with a social financing growth rate of 8.2% [6][16]. - The components of social financing showed mixed results, with increases in RMB and foreign currency loans, while government and corporate bond financing saw declines [16]. - Effective social financing growth, which includes medium to long-term loans and direct financing, rose to 5.47% [16]. Group 3: Loan Growth - Financial institutions issued 900 billion yuan in new RMB loans in February, a decrease of 110 billion yuan year-on-year, with a loan growth rate of 6.0% [1][21]. - Household loans saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.6 trillion yuan, while corporate loans improved, particularly in medium to long-term loans, which increased by 3.5 trillion yuan [21]. - The overall loan growth trend indicates a need for further data to assess the sustainability of the improvements in corporate loans [10]. Group 4: Policy Outlook - A reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut of 50 basis points is anticipated in the first quarter, which could release approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity [26]. - Comprehensive interest rate cuts are expected to be delayed, with the focus on stabilizing expectations and employment amid external and internal economic pressures [26]. - The potential for a single interest rate cut of 10-20 basis points throughout the year is projected, which may influence loan and deposit rates [26].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Overseas geopolitical conflicts may push up oil prices, causing market concerns about re - inflation, potentially leading to the Fed's failure to cut interest rates this year, suppressing the RMB exchange rate and limiting the PBOC's room for RRR and interest rate cuts. However, strong consumer spending during the Spring Festival shows the effectiveness of domestic demand - expansion policies, and the accelerated movement of household deposits provides liquidity support for the stock market. The market's concerns about external risks may put short - term pressure on A - shares, but long - term trends depend on oil price increases and the recovery of the domestic economic fundamentals [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Contract Prices**: All major and minor contracts of IF, IC, IH, and IM showed declines. For example, the IF main contract (2603) dropped from the previous value by 60.6 to 4651.4 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Most of the contract spreads decreased, such as the IF - IH monthly contract spread, which dropped by 33.0 to 1632.4 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased. For instance, the IF top 20 net position decreased by 1726.0 to 32,461.00 [2]. - **Spot - Futures Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts all increased. For example, the IF main contract basis increased by 13.0 to - 4.5 [2]. 3.2 Market Sentiment Indicators - **Transaction Volume and Balance**: A - share trading volume reached 31,575.58 billion yuan, up 1117.93 billion yuan; the margin trading balance was 26,740.07 billion yuan, up 48.09 billion yuan [2]. - **Investor Sentiment Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks dropped by 9.11% to 11.72%; the Shibor dropped by 0.048% to 1.267% [2]. 3.3 Industry News - **Domestic Stock Market**: A - share major indices closed significantly lower. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.43%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 3.07%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.57%. Over 4800 stocks declined, with the defense and military industry sector weakening and the petroleum and petrochemical sector strengthening [2]. - **Overseas Situation**: Geopolitical conflicts between the US and Iran over the weekend led to concerns about crude oil supply disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz was closed, and the yield of US 10 - year Treasury futures exceeded 4%, indicating a significant increase in market expectations of re - inflation [2]. - **Domestic Economic Fundamentals**: During the Spring Festival in 2026, domestic tourism and spending increased compared to 2025, and the average daily number of travelers was also higher [2]. 3.4 Key Events to Watch - **Domestic**: The 4th Session of the 14th National People's Congress will be held from March 5; the National Committee of the 14th Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will be held from March 4 - 11. China's February official manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI will be released on March 4 at 9:30 [2][3]. - **Overseas**: The US February ADP employment data will be released on March 4 at 21:15; the US February non - farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and labor participation rate will be released on March 6 at 21:30 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices closed with mixed results, with small and medium-cap stocks outperforming large-cap blue chips. The CSI 1000 was the strongest among the four broad-based indices. After the A-share market recorded a good start, it is expected to continue the upward trend due to factors such as continuous trade disturbances overseas weakening market confidence in US dollar assets, accelerated movement of residents' deposits providing liquidity support for the stock market, high consumer spending during the Spring Festival showing the effectiveness of domestic demand expansion policies, the approaching Two Sessions, and the continuous strengthening of the RMB [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Disk - IF main contract (2603) was at 4712.2, down 18.8; IF second main contract (2606) was at 4671.2, down 24.6. IH main contract (2603) was at 3034.6, down 23.4; IH second main contract (2606) was at 3031.0, down 23.0. IC main contract (2603) was at 8537.4, up 19.2; IC second main contract (2606) was at 8427.4, up 2.0. IM main contract (2603) was at 8443.4, up 41.6; IM second main contract (2606) was at 8260.4, up 18.6 [2] - IF - IH current contract spread was 1677.6, up 4.4; IC - IF current contract spread was 3825.2, up 27.6. IM - IC current contract spread was -94.0, up 29.4; IC - IH current contract spread was 5502.8, up 32.0 [2] - IF quarterly - current was -41.0, up 57.0; IF next - current was -97.4, up 61.4. IH quarterly - current was -3.6, up 1.2; IH next - current was -37.4, up 1.6. IC quarterly - current was -110.0, down 18.4; IC next - current was -239.2, down 27.2. IM quarterly - current was -183.0, down 24.8; IM next - current was -369.6, down 32.4 [2] 3.2 Futures Position - IF top 20 net position was -35,984.00, up 3756.0; IH top 20 net position was -21,592.00, up 784.0. IC top 20 net position was -42,437.00, up 634.0; IM top 20 net position was -59,382.00, up 3060.0 [2] 3.3 Spot Price - CSI 300 was at 4726.87, down 9.0; IF main contract basis was -14.7, down 10.2. SSE 50 was at 3035.1, down 19.9; IH main contract basis was -0.5, down 3.8. CSI 500 was at 8557.2, up 29.7; IC main contract basis was -19.8, down 21.3. CSI 1000 was at 8490.6, up 64.3; IM main contract basis was -47.2, down 26.5 [2] 3.4 Market Sentiment - A-share trading volume (daily, billion yuan) was 25,566.39, up 757.47; margin trading balance (previous trading day, billion yuan) was 26,466.26, up 238.70. Northbound trading volume (previous trading day, billion yuan) was 3195.37, up 23.76; reverse repurchase (maturity volume, operation volume, billion yuan) was -4000.0, up 3205.0 [2] - Main funds (yesterday, today, billion yuan) were -177.82 and -472.19. The proportion of rising stocks (daily, %) was 45.30, down 23.01; Shibor (daily, %) was 1.368, down 0.010 [2] - IO at - the - money call option closing price (2603) was 44.40, down 12.40; IO at - the - money call option implied volatility (%) was 12.22, down 0.91. IO at - the - money put option closing price (2603) was 79.60, up 4.00; IO at - the - money put option implied volatility (%) was 12.77, down 0.36 [2] - CSI 300 index 20 - day volatility (%) was 13.82, up 0.02; trading volume PCR (%) was 55.95, down 2.84. Position PCR (%) was 65.69, up 0.79 [2] 3.5 Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares were at 5.30, down 1.70; technical aspect was at 4.50, down 2.30. Capital aspect was at 6.10, down 1.10 [2] 3.6 Industry News - In January, the increment of social financing scale was 7.22 trillion yuan, 166.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 4.71 trillion yuan, with the end - of - month balance at 276.62 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%. At the end of January, M2 increased by 9% year - on - year, and M1 increased by 4.9% year - on - year [2] - On February 24, 2026, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5 - year and above LPR was 3.5%. LPR has remained stable for 9 consecutive months [2] - During the 9 - day Spring Festival holiday, the number of domestic tourist trips was 596 million, an increase of 95 million compared with the 8 - day Spring Festival holiday in 2025; domestic tourism spending was 803.483 billion yuan, an increase of 126.481 billion yuan compared with the 8 - day Spring Festival holiday in 2025 [2] 3.7 Key Points to Focus On - At 21:30 on February 26, pay attention to the initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending February 21. At 21:30 on February 27, pay attention to the US January PPI and core PPI [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas trade disturbances continue, but the U.S. use of tariffs weakens market confidence in U.S. dollar assets, leading to capital outflows from the U.S. and providing an opportunity for A - shares [2] - The movement of household deposits into the stock market provides liquidity support for the stock market [2] - High - level consumer spending during the Spring Festival shows the effectiveness of domestic demand expansion policies. With the approaching of the Two Sessions and the continuous strengthening of the RMB, A - shares are expected to continue the upward trend after a good start [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices**: IF (2603) latest price is 4731.4, up 42.8; IH (2603) is 3058.2, up 18.6; IC (2603) is 8529.0, up 145.6; IM (2603) is 8405.6, up 120.2. Corresponding secondary contracts also show increases [2] - **Futures Price Spreads**: IF - IH, IC - IF, IM - IF, etc. spreads of the current - month contracts have different changes, with most showing an upward trend [2] - **Futures Seasonal Spreads**: IF, IH, IC, IM seasonal - to - current - month spreads also have various fluctuations, some rising and some falling [2] - **Futures Net Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Index Prices**: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index is 4735.89, up 28.3; the Shanghai Composite 50 is 3054.9, up 13.6; the CSI 500 is 8527.6, up 134.7; the CSI 1000 is 8426.3, up 126.6 [2] - **Futures - Spot Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts all increased [2] 3.3 Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume**: A - share trading volume is 24808.92 billion yuan, up 2627.31 billion yuan. The margin trading balance is 26227.57 billion yuan, up 346.32 billion yuan [2] - **North - bound Trading**: The total north - bound trading volume is 3171.61 billion yuan, up 475.20 billion yuan [2] - **Fund Flows**: The main funds had an outflow of 31.78 billion yuan yesterday and 177.82 billion yuan today. MLF had a net injection of 3000 billion yuan [2] - **Stock Performance Ratio**: The proportion of rising stocks is 68.31%, down 4.78 percentage points [2] - **Option Data**: The closing prices and implied volatilities of IO at - the - money call and put options changed, and the 20 - day volatility of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased [2] - **PCR Data**: The volume PCR decreased by 7.39 percentage points, and the open interest PCR increased by 0.72 percentage points [2] - **Market Strength - Weakness Analysis**: The overall performance of all A - shares, technical aspects weakened, while the capital aspect remained unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry News - **Macroeconomic Data**: In January, the increment of social financing scale was 7.22 trillion yuan, 166.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 4.71 trillion yuan. At the end of January, M2 and M1 increased by 9% and 4.9% year - on - year respectively. The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPR remained stable for 9 consecutive months [2] - **Tourism Data**: During the 9 - day Spring Festival holiday, the number of domestic tourists was 596 million, an increase of 95 million compared with the 8 - day holiday in 2025; domestic tourism spending was 8034.83 billion yuan, an increase of 1264.81 billion yuan [2] - **Stock Market Performance**: A - share main indexes closed up. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.72%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.29%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.41%. Most industry sectors rose, with only the media and banking sectors falling [2] 3.5 Key Data to Watch - On February 25 at 18:00, the final values of the Eurozone's January HCPI and core HCPI will be released [3] - On February 26 at 21:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending February 21 will be announced [3] - On February 27 at 21:30, the U.S. January PPI and core PPI will be released [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of the upcoming maturity of approximately 76-77 trillion yuan in residential time deposits in 2026, highlighting the potential for a shift in asset allocation as these deposits transition from high-interest rates above 3% to lower rates of 1.2%-1.5% [2][7][24]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In 2026, the total maturity of residential time deposits is estimated to be around 76-77 trillion yuan, marking a historical peak [11][24]. - The maturity pressure is expected to be seasonal, with approximately 32-34 trillion yuan maturing in the first quarter of 2026, indicating a "peak in the first quarter" characteristic [12][24]. - The increase in maturity volume from 2025 to 2026 is projected to be 9.6-10.8 trillion yuan, corresponding to a growth rate of 14.4%-16.3%, which is lower than the 17.7% growth rate observed in 2025 [16][24]. Group 2: High-Interest Deposits - Approximately 25 trillion yuan of the maturing deposits are high-interest deposits with a term of two years or more, constituting about 32% of the total maturity volume [3][20]. - The marginal increase in high-interest deposits maturing in 2026 is about 4.6 trillion yuan compared to 2025, indicating a gradual rather than sudden change [20][24]. - The experience from 2025 shows that despite facing re-pricing pressure, the renewal rate of deposits remained close to 90%, suggesting resilience in deposit behavior [3][26]. Group 3: Asset Reallocation - The focus of the market is shifting from "whether to renew" to "where to allocate" the funds post-maturity, with expectations that a portion of the maturing deposits will flow into other asset classes [4][30]. - The anticipated outflow rate of around 10-15% from the maturing deposits could significantly influence market pricing, especially in the stock and bond markets [4][30]. - The ongoing discussions around the reallocation of deposits and the implications for market liquidity and asset pricing are becoming increasingly relevant as the maturity date approaches [5][7].

Group 1 - In January, non-bank deposits increased by 2.56 trillion yuan year-on-year, with household deposits decreasing by 3.39 trillion yuan [1] - The increase in non-financial enterprise deposits was 2.61 trillion yuan, while household deposits rose by 2.13 trillion yuan [1] - Analysts attribute these trends to the impact of the Spring Festival and a shift in household savings behavior [1] Group 2 - On February 18, Takashi Suga was elected as Japan's 105th Prime Minister, forming a new cabinet with all previous members retained [2] - Suga was previously elected as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party on October 4 and became Prime Minister on October 21 [2] - The House of Representatives was dissolved following a cabinet meeting on January 23 [2] Group 3 - Su Yiming won the first gold medal for the Chinese delegation at the Milan Winter Olympics in men's snowboard slopestyle with a score of 82.41 [3] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes revealed significant internal divisions regarding future monetary policy directions, despite a consensus to maintain the current interest rate [4] - Most officials warned that the process of bringing inflation back to the 2% target may be slower and more uneven than expected [4] Group 5 - Samsung Electronics is negotiating prices for its next-generation AI high-bandwidth memory chips, with quotes rising by up to 30% compared to the previous generation [5] - This price increase has drawn significant attention from the global semiconductor supply chain [5] - Analysts suggest that ongoing supply constraints and technological barriers are allowing leading manufacturers to regain pricing power in the high-end market [5] Group 6 - President Trump announced an increase in the "global import tariff" rate from 10% to 15%, effective immediately [6] - This decision follows a Supreme Court ruling that limited the president's authority to impose large-scale tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act [6] Group 7 - In 2026, China's annual box office revenue surpassed 80 billion yuan, ranking first globally among single markets [7] - The total box office for the Spring Festival has exceeded 54 billion yuan, with top films including "Fast Life 3" and "Silent Awakening" [7]

Core Viewpoint - The trend of "moving" household deposits is significant this year, with approximately 50 trillion yuan in time deposits maturing and current bank deposit rates dropping to over 1%, prompting a need for new investment choices [4][6][7] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Public funds are seen as a favorable option for reallocating this substantial amount of capital, offering a variety of products suitable for different risk appetites [4][6] - Money market funds provide good liquidity but lower returns, while bond funds cater to those seeking stable returns, and higher-risk investors may consider mixed or equity funds to capitalize on market trends [4][5] - The shift towards public funds is driven by a growing demand for returns as low interest rates persist, making these funds a key vehicle for meeting household investment needs [4][6] Group 2: Asset Allocation Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on their risk tolerance when determining asset allocation, with higher risk tolerance allowing for a greater proportion of equity products [5][6] - Traditional depositors are encouraged to start with bond funds, which offer controlled risk and higher returns than bank deposits, as a gateway to capital markets [5][6] - Key indicators for selecting public products include matching risk-return characteristics, the historical performance of fund managers, and clarity of investment strategies [6] Group 3: Long-term Market Trends - The transition of household savings to capital markets is expected to accelerate in the coming years, becoming a significant driver of a "slow bull" or "long bull" market [6][7] - This trend reflects a profound change in the structure of household wealth allocation, with a shift towards products that provide better returns in a low-interest-rate environment [6][7] - The public fund industry faces both opportunities and responsibilities in managing investor expectations and fostering trust to ensure the stability of this transition [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The trend of residents' deposits "moving" is significant this year, with approximately 50 trillion yuan in time deposits maturing and current bank deposit rates dropping to over 1%, prompting a need for new investment choices [1][4] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Public funds are seen as a favorable option for reallocating this substantial amount of funds, offering a variety of products suitable for different risk appetites [1][2] - Money market funds provide good liquidity, while bond funds cater to those seeking stable returns, and higher-risk investors may consider mixed or equity funds to capitalize on market trends [1][2] Group 2: Wealth Allocation Trends - The shift towards public funds reflects a growing and urgent demand for returns among residents due to low interest rates, making public funds a key vehicle for meeting these financial needs [2][3] - Investors are advised to focus on their risk preferences when determining asset allocation, with higher risk tolerance allowing for greater equity exposure [2][3] Group 3: Long-term Market Dynamics - The transition of household savings to capital markets is expected to accelerate, driven by a fundamental change in wealth allocation structures, which will support a prolonged bullish market [3] - The public fund industry faces both opportunities and responsibilities in managing investor expectations and fostering trust to ensure a stable transition of savings to capital markets [3]