股指期货全景日报 2026/3/3 研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 微信号：yanjiufuwu 电话：0595-86778969 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保 证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公 司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院， 且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | 3/4 9:30 中国2月官方制造业、非制造业、综合PMI | | --- | --- | | | 3/4 21:15 美国2月ADP就业人数 | | | 3/6 21:30 美国2月非农就业人数、失业率、劳动参与率 | | | 3/4-3/11 全国政协十四届四次会议 | | 重点关注 | 3/5—— 十四届全国人大四次会议 | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：IF:沪深 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 IF主力合约（2603） | 4712.2 | 环比 数据指标 -18.8↓ IF次主力合约（2606） | 最新 4671.2 | 环比 -24.6↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IH主力合约（2603） IC主力合约（2603） | 3034.6 8537.4 | -23.4↓ IH次主力合约（2606） +19.2↑ IC次主力合约（2606） | 3031.0 8427.4 | -23.0↓ +2.0↑ | | | IM主力合约（2603） | 8443.4 | +41.6↑ IM次主力合约（2606） | 8260.4 | +18.6↑ | | | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1677.6 | +4.4↑ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 3825.2 | +27.6↑ | | 期货盘面 | IM-IC当月合约价差 | -94.0 | +29.4↑ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 5502.8 | +32.0↑ | | | IM-IF当月合约价差 | | | | | | | IF当季-当月 | 3731.2 -41. ...

免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保 证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公 司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院， 且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 股指期货全景日报 2026/2/25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 IF主力合约（2603） | 最新 4731.4 | 环比 数据指标 +42.8↑ IF次主力合约（2606） | 最新 4696.4 | 环比 +49.6↑ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IH主力合约（2603） IC主力合约（2603） | 3058.2 8529.0 | +18.6↑ IH次主力合约（2606） +145.6↑ IC次主力合约（2606） | 3053.4 8437.4 | +18.8↑ +152.0↑ | | | IM主力合约（2603） | 8405. ...

1月非银存款同比多增2.56万亿元 央行发布的1月金融统计数据显示，1月住户存款增加2.13万亿元，非金融企业存款增加2.61万亿元，非 银行业金融机构存款增加1.45万亿元。相对2025年同期，非银存款同比多增2.56万亿元，而住户存款同 比少增3.39万亿元。综合券商分析师观点，这背后除受春节错月影响外，也反映了居民存款搬家正在加 速。 高市早苗当选日本第105任首相 日本自民党总裁高市早苗2月18日经国会众议院和参议院首相指名选举当选日本第105任首相。高市早苗 18日晚组建新内阁，上一届高市内阁的阁僚全部留任。高市于去年10月4日当选自民党总裁，10月21日 当选日本第104任首相。今年1月23日，高市和全体阁僚举行内阁会议，通过众议院解散决议书，随后众 议院解散。 苏翊鸣夺得米兰冬奥会中国代表团首金 意大利当地时间2月18日，米兰冬奥会男子单板滑雪坡面障碍技巧决赛在利维尼奥雪上公园展开，中国 队选手苏翊鸣凭借第一轮比赛得到的82.41分获得金牌，这也是中国体育代表团在本届冬奥会上获得的 第一枚金牌。 美联储官员对货币政策走向分歧明显 美联储2月18日公布的1月货币政策会议纪要显示，尽管几乎所有美联储 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trend of "moving" household deposits is significant this year, with approximately 50 trillion yuan in time deposits maturing and current bank deposit rates dropping to over 1%, prompting a need for new investment choices [4][6][7] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Public funds are seen as a favorable option for reallocating this substantial amount of capital, offering a variety of products suitable for different risk appetites [4][6] - Money market funds provide good liquidity but lower returns, while bond funds cater to those seeking stable returns, and higher-risk investors may consider mixed or equity funds to capitalize on market trends [4][5] - The shift towards public funds is driven by a growing demand for returns as low interest rates persist, making these funds a key vehicle for meeting household investment needs [4][6] Group 2: Asset Allocation Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on their risk tolerance when determining asset allocation, with higher risk tolerance allowing for a greater proportion of equity products [5][6] - Traditional depositors are encouraged to start with bond funds, which offer controlled risk and higher returns than bank deposits, as a gateway to capital markets [5][6] - Key indicators for selecting public products include matching risk-return characteristics, the historical performance of fund managers, and clarity of investment strategies [6] Group 3: Long-term Market Trends - The transition of household savings to capital markets is expected to accelerate in the coming years, becoming a significant driver of a "slow bull" or "long bull" market [6][7] - This trend reflects a profound change in the structure of household wealth allocation, with a shift towards products that provide better returns in a low-interest-rate environment [6][7] - The public fund industry faces both opportunities and responsibilities in managing investor expectations and fostering trust to ensure the stability of this transition [6][7]

居民存款正迎来新一轮"搬家"。数据显示，今年约有50万亿元定期存款集中到期，而当前银行存款利率 已降至1%多的水平。这笔巨量资金将流向何处？普通投资者又该如何配置自己的财富？ 在期货日报"策马点金"栏目中，前海开源基金首席经济学家、基金经理杨德龙从公募基金的优势、2026 年的核心变量、低风险客户的参与路径以及市场长期趋势四个维度，为投资者提供了系统性的分析与建 议。 "居民存款'搬家'是今年一个重要的现象。"杨德龙表示，在楼市低迷的背景下，居民储蓄正面临新的配 置需求。今年约50万亿元定期存款集中到期，而利率已降至1%多，储户必须做出新的选择。 在他看来，公募基金是承接这笔资金比较好的一个选择方向。作为大众理财方式，公募基金具备品种丰 富的天然优势：货币基金流动性好，虽然收益率较低，但适合低风险投资者；债券基金等固收类产品则 适合追求一定回报的投资者；风险偏好较高的投资者，则可以配置混合型基金或股票型基金，分享市场 行情发展的成果。 这一判断的背后，是杨德龙对居民财富配置趋势的长期观察。他认为，随着低利率的到来，居民对收益 的需求日益丰富、迫切，公募基金凭借其产品线的丰富性和专业性，正成为承接居民理财需求的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent data from the central bank indicates a significant shift in household deposits towards non-bank financial institutions, reflecting an acceleration in the trend of residents moving their savings from traditional deposits to asset management products [1][4][12]. Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In January, household deposits increased by 2.13 trillion yuan, non-financial corporate deposits rose by 2.61 trillion yuan, and deposits in non-bank financial institutions grew by 1.45 trillion yuan [1][8]. - The total balance of broad money (M2) reached 347.19 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9%, while narrow money (M1) stood at 117.97 trillion yuan, growing by 4.9% [8][9]. - Compared to the same period in 2025, non-bank deposits increased by 2.56 trillion yuan year-on-year, while household deposits decreased by 3.39 trillion yuan [1][9]. Group 2: Analysis of Deposit Trends - Analysts from various brokerages agree that the data indicates an acceleration in the migration of household deposits, with the growth rate of household deposits declining sharply [3][10]. - The difference between the growth rates of household deposits and M2 has turned negative for the first time in 7.5 years, indicating a significant shift [10][11]. - The increase in non-bank deposits is attributed to both a low base effect from previous self-regulation in interbank deposit pricing and a potential shift of household savings towards the stock market [2][9]. Group 3: Wealth Migration to Asset Management Products - There is a growing discussion regarding the reallocation of deposits as a large volume of fixed-term deposits is set to mature, estimated to be between 30 trillion and 70 trillion yuan by 2026 [4][12]. - By the end of 2025, deposits in non-bank financial institutions are projected to reach 34.6 trillion yuan, marking a 22.8% year-on-year increase, the highest in a decade [12]. - The balance of asset management products sourced from households and enterprises is expected to grow to 56.3 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, reflecting a 9.7% increase [12]. Group 4: Market Implications - Despite the migration of deposits, analysts caution that this does not necessarily imply a significant influx of capital into the equity market, as much of the funds may flow into low-risk assets rather than riskier investments [5][13]. - The expected path of fund flow is projected to be from household deposits to non-bank deposits, then to financial products, and finally into the bond and stock markets [6][13]. - Analysts suggest that the liquidity in the equity market will depend on various macroeconomic indicators, and the sentiment may shift as the high point of deposit maturity pressure approaches in early 2026 [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The recent financial statistics from the central bank indicate a significant shift in household deposits towards non-bank financial institutions, reflecting a broader trend of wealth migration from traditional savings to asset management products [2][6][7]. Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In January, household deposits increased by 2.13 trillion yuan, while non-financial corporate deposits rose by 2.61 trillion yuan, and deposits from non-bank financial institutions grew by 1.45 trillion yuan [1][3]. - The total balance of broad money (M2) reached 347.19 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9%, while narrow money (M1) stood at 117.97 trillion yuan, growing by 4.9% [3][4]. Group 2: Deposit Migration Trends - Compared to the same period in 2025, non-bank deposits increased by 2.56 trillion yuan, while household deposits decreased by 3.39 trillion yuan, indicating a clear trend of "deposit migration" [2][4]. - Analysts noted that the decline in household deposits and the increase in non-bank deposits are influenced by factors such as the timing of the Spring Festival and a shift in investment preferences towards the stock market [4][5]. Group 3: Asset Management Product Migration - The discussion around the "massive maturity of deposits" has led to speculation about where these funds will be reallocated, with estimates suggesting that between 3 trillion to 7 trillion yuan of household time deposits will mature in 2026 [6][7]. - By the end of 2025, the balance of deposits in non-bank financial institutions is projected to reach 34.6 trillion yuan, marking a 22.8% year-on-year increase, which reflects the ongoing trend of deposit migration [6][7]. Group 4: Market Implications - Analysts express caution regarding the potential impact of deposit migration on the equity market, suggesting that the primary destination for matured deposits may be low-risk assets rather than high-risk equities [7][8]. - The outlook for 2026 indicates that if household investment remains stable, funds may flow from household deposits to non-bank deposits, and subsequently into financial products like funds and insurance, before reaching the bond and stock markets [7][8].

Group 1: Financial Data and Trends - As of the end of January 2026, the total social financing scale was 449.11 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2% [1] - The broad money supply (M2) increased by 9.0% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the nominal GDP growth, supporting stable growth in the real economy [1] - In January, resident deposits decreased by 3.39 trillion yuan year-on-year, while non-bank financial institutions saw an increase of 2.56 trillion yuan in deposits [1] Group 2: Robotics Rental Industry - The Chinese robot rental platform, Qingtian Rental, reported over 1,000 orders received for the Spring Festival period, with total orders expected to exceed 5,000, representing an 80% increase in overall GMV [2] - Qingtian Rental is implementing a "City Partner Strategy" to address delivery challenges due to explosive growth and is maintaining a monthly financing rhythm to adapt to market changes [2] Group 3: Beer Industry Performance - Anheuser-Busch InBev's Budweiser Asia and Heineken both reported declines in sales revenue, net profit, and volume for 2025, indicating a common trend of underperformance [3][4] - Heineken's 2025 net revenue was 28.75 billion euros (approximately 235.53 billion yuan), with a net profit of 1.88 billion euros (approximately 15.44 billion yuan), both showing consecutive declines [3] - Budweiser Asia's revenue for 2025 was 5.764 billion USD (approximately 40.31 billion yuan), down about 11.59% year-on-year, with a net profit of approximately 489 million USD (about 3.42 billion yuan), marking a 35.47% decline [3] Group 4: Real Estate Market - In January, the second-hand residential sales prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.5% month-on-month, with specific declines in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [9] - The price adjustments in the second-hand housing market have been ongoing for over four years, with recent data indicating a narrowing of the decline, suggesting improved price-performance ratios for buyers [9] - Notably, cities like Yangzhou and Zhanjiang experienced a month-on-month increase in second-hand residential prices in January [9] Group 5: Gold Market Regulation - Shenzhen's financial management authorities issued a set of ten prohibitive measures to regulate gold market activities, following previous incidents and market volatility [11] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange also announced adjustments to margin requirements and trading limits for gold and silver contracts to manage risks during the Spring Festival [11] - As of February 13, the spot gold price fluctuated between 4,900 and 5,000 USD per ounce, down approximately 10% from a previous high of 5,595 USD [11]

Group 1: Core Insights - The social financing growth rate in January is 8.2%, slightly down from 8.3% in the previous month, indicating overall stability in financing conditions [3][6] - New social financing reached 7.22 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 165.4 billion yuan, marking a historical high for the same period [6][9] - The monetary policy remains accommodative, with expectations for potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions in the first half of the year [4][5] Group 2: Financial Data Characteristics - The credit growth rate has slowed, with the year-on-year growth of credit balance at 6.1%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [3][12] - M2 and M1 growth rates have both increased, with M2 at 9.0% and M1 at 4.9%, indicating a narrowing gap between the two [4][15] - Government bond net financing increased by 976.4 billion yuan, supporting social financing growth [9] Group 3: Credit and Financing Structure - The structure of financing shows a shift, with government bonds and bills providing support while on-balance sheet credit and direct financing are still adjusting [3][8] - New loans in January amounted to 4.9 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 320 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting weaker credit expansion [12] - Short-term loans for residents increased significantly, while medium- and long-term loans faced pressure, indicating a cautious approach to long-term borrowing [13]