Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the target interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% during the March 2026 FOMC meeting[2] - The statement changed from "unemployment rate stabilizing" to "little changed in recent months" and noted uncertainty from Middle East conflicts on the US economy[2] Economic Projections - The Fed raised economic growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 0.1 percentage points to 2.4% and 0.3 percentage points to 2.3%, respectively[2] - Core PCE inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027 were increased by 0.2 percentage points to 2.7% and 0.1 percentage points to 2.2%, respectively[2] Interest Rate Expectations - The dot plot indicates a median expectation of one rate cut in 2026, but with a more cautious distribution compared to December 2025[2] - Seven members favor no rate cuts in 2026, while seven support one cut (25 basis points), and five support more than one cut[2] Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, US Treasury yields rose significantly, with the 2-year and 10-year yields increasing by 6 basis points and 5 basis points, respectively[2] - The stock market declined, gold prices fell slightly, and the US dollar index rose above 100[2] Risks - The report highlights risks from the Middle East conflict potentially impacting inflation more than expected and the adverse effects of AI on the US labor market[2]