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Sora 2两月留存率接近0%,奥特曼得学抖音快手?
虎嗅APP· 2025-12-02 14:11
Core Insights - Sora 2, developed by OpenAI, was initially seen as a revolutionary tool in the video generation space but has faced significant challenges in user retention and overall effectiveness [4][9][36] - The app experienced a rapid decline in user engagement, with a 30-day retention rate of less than 1%, indicating a severe drop-off in active users shortly after installation [5][14][30] Group 1: User Engagement and Retention - Sora 2 achieved impressive initial download numbers, with 1 million installs on iOS in its first week and 470,000 downloads on Android on its launch day, particularly strong in the U.S. market [11][12] - Despite the high download rates, the app's user retention has been alarmingly low, with only 1% of users remaining active after 30 days, compared to industry standards where similar apps like TikTok and Kuaishou have retention rates around 48.7% and 46.2% respectively [13][14] - The app's rapid decline in App Store rankings, dropping from first to fourth place within two weeks, reflects the unsustainable nature of its initial success [13][36] Group 2: Product Quality and User Experience - The primary issue with Sora 2 is its inability to transition from a "toy" to a "tool," as the quality of generated videos is inconsistent, with only 5% to 10% of outputs deemed usable [15][16] - Users face long wait times for video generation, often spending significant time to receive unsatisfactory results, which detracts from the overall user experience [17][18] - The lack of advanced editing features and the inability to modify videos directly within the app further hinder user satisfaction and engagement [17][27] Group 3: Community and Social Features - Sora 2's community features are poorly designed, failing to promote high-quality content while allowing low-quality videos to gain visibility, which undermines user motivation to engage with the platform [21][23] - The absence of basic functionalities such as comments and collections limits user interaction and content discovery within the app [23][27] Group 4: Commercial Viability and Cost Structure - OpenAI's current business model for Sora 2 is deemed unsustainable, with daily operational costs reaching $15 million, leading to a projected annual cost of nearly $5.5 billion [30][31] - The introduction of paid features to offset costs has not proven effective, as the low retention rate means that most users do not convert to paying customers [30][31] - OpenAI faces a dilemma: reducing free usage limits to cut costs may further decrease user retention, while maintaining current limits is financially unfeasible [31][32] Group 5: Legal and Compliance Issues - Sora 2 is also grappling with legal challenges, particularly regarding intellectual property rights, as users may generate content that infringes on copyrights, complicating content moderation efforts [32][34] - OpenAI's attempts to balance user experience with legal compliance have led to frequent changes in content generation policies, resulting in user dissatisfaction [32][34] Group 6: Industry Implications - The challenges faced by Sora 2 highlight broader issues within the AI video generation industry, where technological advancement does not guarantee product success or user retention [36][37] - The rapid decline in user engagement for Sora 2 serves as a cautionary tale for other companies in the sector, emphasizing the need for sustainable business models and user-centric design [36][37]