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中国电信(601728):2025年秋季策略会速递—业务稳健发展,迎来AI智能云新阶段
HTSC· 2025-08-29 04:48
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5][4] Core Insights - The company is transitioning its Tianyi Cloud business from a phase of rapid revenue growth to a focus on high-quality development, with strong demand for intelligent computing services [2][1] - The mobile and broadband businesses are expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory [2] - The capital expenditure guidance for 2025 remains unchanged at RMB 83.6 billion, with a gradual decline in the capital expenditure to revenue ratio [3][1] - The company plans to leverage AI large models to enhance operational efficiency and further improve profitability [3][1] Summary by Sections Tianyi Cloud Business - The Tianyi Cloud business is moving towards a high-quality development phase, with a strong demand for intelligent computing services. The overall intelligent computing resource utilization rate has reached nearly 70%, with a diversified customer base expanding from government and state-owned enterprises to finance, transportation, and education sectors. In the first half of 2025, the total computing power reached 77 EFLOPS, with an increase of 15 EFLOPS [2][1] Basic Business Operations - In the first half of 2025, the mobile ARPU and broadband comprehensive ARPU remained stable. The company has been promoting bundled packages to enhance user stickiness and add extra user value. The industry competition has been effectively managed by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology since 2019, leading to a healthier market environment [2][1] Capital Expenditure - The company's capital expenditure in the first half of the year accounted for approximately 41% of the annual budget, which is typical for the telecom industry, as investments are usually higher in the second half. The capital expenditure guidance for 2025 remains at RMB 83.6 billion, with a declining trend in the capital expenditure to revenue ratio expected as the peak investment period for 5G network construction has passed [3][1] Cost and Expense Management - The company aims to keep the growth rate of costs and expenses below that of revenue, which is expected to enhance profitability. The development of an AI model specifically for cloud network operations is expected to save labor costs and reduce base station electricity expenses through optimized algorithms [3][1] Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to see continued profit growth, with net profits projected at RMB 34.8 billion, RMB 36.7 billion, and RMB 38.4 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The target price is set at RMB 9.11 per share, based on a 1.8x PB valuation for 2025 [4][8]