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蓝思科技_花旗 2025 中国会议新动态_2026 年增长动力未减
花旗· 2025-11-16 15:36
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Lens Technology is "Buy" with a target price of Rmb38.00, indicating an expected share price return of 27.4% and an expected total return of 28.9% [7]. Core Insights - Key growth drivers for Lens Technology in 2026 include advancements in foldable phones, automotive laminated glass for new energy vehicles (NEVs), AI glass development, increased robot shipments, and faster SSD module assembly [1]. - The company anticipates significant revenue from humanoid robots, with projections of supplying over 10,000 units in 2026 and achieving breakeven at an annual production of 100,000 units [2]. - Lens Technology is also expanding its high-end smartphone offerings, expecting an increase in average selling price (ASP) due to new models and materials [4]. - In the automotive sector, the company plans to support over 1 million vehicles in 2026 with a targeted gross margin of 20-30% on its laminated glass products [5]. - The company is positioned to supply over 1 million AI edge devices in 2026, with ongoing negotiations for additional content and features [9]. - The valuation is based on a target price of Rmb38.00, supported by a projected 31% three-year earnings compound annual growth rate (CAGR) [14]. Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots - Lens Technology is supplying over 1,000 dexterous hands and 3,000 humanoid robots in 2025, with additional orders for 10,000 robot dogs, potentially generating hundreds of millions in revenue [2]. Server Products - The company's SSD products are currently undergoing verification, with expectations for completion in the coming months [3]. High-End Smartphones - The company expects an incremental content gain of less than $100 per foldable phone model in the second half of 2026, with positive shipment forecasts [4]. Automotive Sector - Lens Technology will have the capacity to support over 1 million vehicles in 2026, with ASPs ranging from Rmb3,000 to Rmb4,000 [5]. AI Edge Devices - The company is set to support over 300,000 Rokid AI glasses in 2025 and over 1 million in 2026, with ongoing negotiations for additional features [9].
卓胜微:LT prospects intact; Maintain HOLD on continued margin pressure-20250401
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-04-01 14:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a HOLD rating for Maxscend, with a target price adjusted downward to RMB82.00 from RMB86.00, reflecting a potential upside of 2.3% from the current price of RMB80.15 [1][3]. Core Insights - Maxscend's FY24 revenue increased by 2.5% YoY to RMB4.5 billion, which was below CMBI estimates and Bloomberg consensus by 2% and 1% respectively. However, net profit saw a significant decline of 64.2% YoY to RMB402 million, missing estimates by 28% and 21% [1][2]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) and net profit margin (NPM) decreased by 7.0 percentage points and 16.7 percentage points respectively, attributed to margin pressure from the subsidiary Xinzhuo's ramp-up as the company shifts from a fabless model to a fab-lite strategy [1][2]. - Despite the near-term margin pressures, the long-term growth prospects for Maxscend remain positive as it develops platform-level manufacturing capabilities and strategic supply chain independence [1]. Financial Performance Summary - FY24 revenue was RMB4,487 million, with a YoY growth of 2.5%, while FY25 revenue is estimated to grow by 16.3% to RMB5,219 million [2][8]. - The gross margin for FY24 was reported at 39.5%, down from 46.4% in FY23, with expectations of a slight recovery to 40.2% in FY25 [2][8]. - Net profit for FY24 was RMB401.9 million, with a forecasted recovery to RMB587.3 million in FY25, reflecting a growth of 46.1% [2][8]. Market Position and Future Outlook - Module sales, which account for 42% of total revenue, grew by 18.6% YoY in FY24, while discrete sales declined by 7.6% YoY. The module business is expected to be a key growth driver, projected to grow by 25% YoY in FY25 [7][8]. - The report indicates that Maxscend will continue to face margin headwinds, particularly in the first half of FY25, but anticipates a gradual recovery in the second half due to seasonality and emerging demand from AI edge devices [7][8]. - The target price of RMB82.00 is based on a rolled-over 45x 2026E P/E, which is 10% higher than the average of peers at 40.7x, considering Maxscend's leading position in the RFFE market and its role in semiconductor localization [1][8].