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Asian stocks rise to extend record global rally
The Economic Times· 2026-01-06 01:13
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index extended its advance to a fourth day, led by a 1% gain for the Gold and silver gave up some of the gains that came after the US capture of “The bullish case for equities remains intact,” said Adrian Helfert, chief investment officer at Westwood. “Broader market leadership should look past Venezuela entirely unless cascading geopolitical events emerge.”This is poised to be a “strong year” for Live EventsFor stocks, the main themes, in the US especially, will be stronger earnings ...
跨资产策略 - 2026 年展望图表集:风险重启之年-Cross-Asset Strategy-2026 Outlook in Charts – The Year of Risk Reboot
2025-11-25 05:06
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Focus on Risk Assets**: The outlook for 2026 indicates a strong year for risk assets, driven by supportive macroeconomic conditions and pro-cyclical policies [10][19]. - **AI Financing**: AI-related financing is highlighted as a key driver in credit markets, with various types of credit (unsecured, secured, etc.) playing a significant role [2][12]. Core Insights - **US Economic Growth**: The US is projected to lead the macroeconomic narrative with GDP growth expected at 1.8% year-over-year in 2026, supported by consumer spending and AI-related investments [11][24]. - **Equity vs. Credit**: A recommendation is made to favor equities over corporate credit, particularly in the US, as equities are expected to outperform due to a pro-cyclical policy mix [3][13]. - **Interest Rates**: UST 10-year yields are expected to remain range-bound, with a forecast of 4.05% by the end of 2026, while the yield curve is anticipated to steepen [41][44]. Market Dynamics - **Global Credit Markets**: The issuance of US investment-grade corporate credit is expected to rise, which may lead to underperformance in this asset class [12][58]. - **Emerging Markets**: Emerging market fixed income is projected to perform well in the first half of 2026, supported by lower UST yields and a weaker USD [48][52]. Sector-Specific Insights - **Equities**: The S&P 500 is forecasted to reach 7,800 by the end of 2026, driven by earnings strength and favorable policies [40]. - **Commodities**: A preference for metals, particularly gold, is noted due to supportive macro conditions and strong demand, while energy markets face supply-demand challenges [65][67]. Additional Considerations - **Labor Market**: The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% by the end of 2026, which may influence Federal Reserve policy decisions [28]. - **Inflation Trends**: Core PCE inflation is projected to rise to 3.1% in early 2026 before receding to 2.6% by year-end [28]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: The US is expected to remain the main driver of global economic narratives, with potential impacts from geopolitical tensions and trade dynamics [11][19]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment for 2026 is optimistic for risk assets, particularly equities, with a focus on AI financing and supportive macroeconomic policies. Investors are advised to remain cautious about corporate credit and to consider sector-specific dynamics when making investment decisions.