It’s February and many traders are feeling a chill that feels a lot like crypto winter. Bitcoin dropped below $75,000 on Sunday, the latest in a series of slides that have dragged down the original cryptocurrency since last autumn. While Bitcoin posed a modest rally on Monday, climbing back toward $80,000 by mid-afternoon, that’s still a 37% dip from its record high in October, according to Binance. Crypto’s downturn is in part spurred by recent macroeconomic factors. One analyst attributes it to soft e ...

Core Viewpoint - The market has faced numerous challenges throughout the year, leading to investor exhaustion, despite a positive earnings season in Q3 [1][2][3]. Market Performance - The year began with complexities surrounding the AI narrative and tariff influences, followed by concerns over the deficit, yet the market remains up in the low teens percentage-wise [2][3]. - Strong earnings reports, including from Nvidia, have not translated into significant stock price increases, indicating a potential market saturation [3][6]. Valuation and Earnings Growth - The current market is approximated to be at fair value around the 6,600 level, based on various metrics including earnings growth and valuation assumptions [5]. - Future earnings growth projections need to continue increasing for the market to rise materially, with recent data showing a nearly one percentage point increase in 5-year earnings growth expectations for the S&P since mid-year [6][7]. Federal Reserve Influence - The potential for a December Fed rate cut could enhance growth prospects and support a year-end rally, although much of the positive outlook may already be priced in [8][9]. - The market is currently navigating high implied growth expectations, which may lead to volatility during earnings reports, but a favorable Fed stance could facilitate a stronger market finish [8][9].