AI-PCB超级周期

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花旗大幅上调胜宏目标价至447元:AI-PCB超级周期加速,供需紧张将持续至2026年后
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-09-15 13:11
Core Viewpoint - The AI-PCB supercycle is accelerating, with Shenghong Technology expected to gain significant excess returns as a leading player in the industry, supported by a substantial price target increase from Citigroup by 148% to 447 RMB, indicating a 35% upside potential from the current stock price. Shenghong Technology has already surged nearly 700% this year [1][4]. Group 1: AI-PCB Market Dynamics - The AI-PCB upgrade trend is being driven by the shift towards rack wireless cable design and CoWoP technology, enhancing assembly efficiency and optimizing space in dense rack configurations [4][5]. - Citigroup has raised its AI-PCB demand forecast for 2026 by 35% to 72 billion RMB, significantly up from the previous estimate of 53 billion RMB, indicating a sustained supply-demand tightness until at least 2026 [7]. Group 2: Shenghong Technology's Performance - Shenghong Technology's production capacity is projected to lead the industry, with expected capacities of 31 billion RMB, 56.4 billion RMB, and 83 billion RMB by the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9]. - Citigroup has revised Shenghong Technology's net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 upwards by 6%, 65%, and 121% to 5.6 billion RMB, 12.8 billion RMB, and 21.2 billion RMB, driven by higher AI-PCB gross margins and faster capacity expansion [10]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The transition to PCB routing interconnects from cable connections is expected to enhance the value of PCB content per GPU, with estimates suggesting an additional value of 300 USD for VR middle boards and 486 USD for VR Ultra backplanes [5][6]. - The AI-PCB shortage is anticipated to persist due to high demand from next-generation GPU platforms and ASIC requirements, compounded by slower-than-expected capacity expansion [7].