Group 1 - Gold and silver have significantly outperformed Bitcoin in yearly returns, with gold returning 86% and silver 60%, while Bitcoin has declined by 1.2% [1] - The rise in precious metals is attributed to fears of monetary debasement, macroeconomic uncertainty, and mixed signals from the Federal Reserve, leading investors to anticipate a potential "policy error" from the Fed [2] - Key inflation indicators, such as Core PCE, are trending towards 3% annually, particularly in services and housing, contributing to concerns about persistent inflation [3] Group 2 - Traditional equities, such as the Nasdaq and S&P 500, have also seen gains of 21% and 16% year-to-date, respectively, contrasting with Bitcoin's performance [3] - Bitcoin is currently experiencing a phase of "mid-cycle repair" following a liquidation shock in October, while equities are in a "late-cycle melt-up" driven by earnings growth and AI investments [4] - On-chain data indicates an increase in total supply in loss, suggesting capitulation among short-term holders, which is characteristic of a mid-cycle reset rather than a bear market [5] Group 3 - Despite Bitcoin's current underperformance, there is an expectation that its disconnect from precious metals and U.S. equities will be temporary, with forecasts indicating a recovery aligned with global liquidity and equity markets [6]

Group 1: US-China Trade Deal - The US-China trade discussions were in line with expectations, indicating a fragile stability in relations [1][3] - China is implementing more stimulus measures, which could lead to growth upsides beyond just tariff reductions [2] - The market reaction to the trade deal was muted, with a "sell the fact" sentiment as the outcomes were anticipated [3][4] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The recent rate cut by the Federal Reserve is viewed as hawkish, with uncertainty surrounding future cuts [5][6] - The Fed's language suggests a growing divergence in opinions about future policy, indicating that further rate reductions are not guaranteed [7][9] - Economic growth revisions are expected to trend upwards, with projections of 3% real growth and inflation around 3% [9][15] Group 3: Technology Sector and Capital Expenditure - Mixed reactions were observed in big tech earnings, with Alphabet performing well while Meta and Microsoft faced pullbacks [11][12] - Increased capital expenditure (capex) spending, particularly in AI, is expected to drive GDP growth and contribute significantly to global wealth [13][14] - The defense sector is considered attractive, along with financials benefiting from deregulation [16][17]