Group 1 - Gold and silver have significantly outperformed Bitcoin in yearly returns, with gold returning 86% and silver 60%, while Bitcoin has declined by 1.2% [1] - The rise in precious metals is attributed to fears of monetary debasement, macroeconomic uncertainty, and mixed signals from the Federal Reserve, leading investors to anticipate a potential "policy error" from the Fed [2] - Key inflation indicators, such as Core PCE, are trending towards 3% annually, particularly in services and housing, contributing to concerns about persistent inflation [3] Group 2 - Traditional equities, such as the Nasdaq and S&P 500, have also seen gains of 21% and 16% year-to-date, respectively, contrasting with Bitcoin's performance [3] - Bitcoin is currently experiencing a phase of "mid-cycle repair" following a liquidation shock in October, while equities are in a "late-cycle melt-up" driven by earnings growth and AI investments [4] - On-chain data indicates an increase in total supply in loss, suggesting capitulation among short-term holders, which is characteristic of a mid-cycle reset rather than a bear market [5] Group 3 - Despite Bitcoin's current underperformance, there is an expectation that its disconnect from precious metals and U.S. equities will be temporary, with forecasts indicating a recovery aligned with global liquidity and equity markets [6]

I want to get your take on the USChina trade deal. Still some other things to be worked out, but the lowering of tariffs seems pretty significant in your mind. Does that increase GDP. Does that change anything about the markets.>> So, I think that the USChina discussions were in line with expectations. I mean, both sides had choreographed that they wanted a successful outcome. I think it's a fragile stability.I think it's important not just the um fentinel tariffs, but that what China is doing itself, it's ...