Core Insights - The S&P 500 rose 16.5% in 2025, but underperformed compared to other global indexes, with the FTSE 100 up 21%, DAX up 23%, and IBEX 35 up 48% [1][2] - South Korea's KOSPI saw the highest increase at 75.6%, while gold and silver also performed exceptionally well, rising 65% and 147% respectively [2][3] - The S&P 500's gains were largely driven by a small number of tech stocks, leading investors to seek diversification in foreign markets [5][6] Performance Comparison - The S&P 500's performance was mediocre relative to other asset classes, with the Athex Composite in Greece up 45% [4] - Investors in U.S. equities lagged behind those betting on foreign stocks and precious metals, indicating a shift in investment strategies [4] Market Dynamics - The dominance of AI-related stocks in the S&P 500 has prompted investors to hedge by investing in non-U.S. markets, which are less tech-heavy [5][6] - The U.K.'s FTSE is characterized by a focus on banks and mining companies, contrasting with the tech-heavy S&P 500 [6] Future Projections - Ed Yardeni predicts the S&P 500 could reach 7,700 by the end of the year, representing an 11% increase [7] - Historical data suggests that after three consecutive years of 15%+ gains, the average return for the following year is about 8%, with a typical max drawdown of around 14% [8]

Core Insights - Super Micro Computer (SMCI) shares have decreased by 13.1% over the last 21 trading days, indicating a shift in investor interest away from AI-related stocks and highlighting execution risks and margin pressures faced by the company [1] - The stock's recent decline raises questions about whether this weakness is temporary or indicative of deeper issues within the company [1] Company Overview - Super Micro Computer is valued at $19 billion with a revenue of $21 billion, currently priced at $31.66 per share [3] - The company has experienced a revenue growth of 11.9% over the last 12 months, with an operating margin of 4.4% [3] - The liquidity position shows a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.17 and a Cash to Assets ratio of 0.29 [3] Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 36.0 and a P/EBIT ratio of 28.9, indicating a moderate valuation [8] - Historically, the stock has offered a median return of 30.9% within a year following sharp declines since 2010 [8] Downturn Resilience - If SMCI stock were to dip another 20-30% to $22, it has been noted that the stock has experienced a slightly worse impact than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns [5] - The stock fell 34.5% from a peak of $35.33 on August 7, 2023, to $23.15 on September 21, 2023, compared to a peak-to-trough drop of 25.4% for the S&P 500 [9] - Historical performance shows that the stock has fully regained its pre-Crisis peak after significant declines, including a 45.8% drop during the 2020 Covid Pandemic and a 59.6% drop from 2017 to 2018 [10][11] Investment Strategy - A well-diversified portfolio is recommended to mitigate risks and seize growth opportunities, as individual stock choices can be unpredictable [12] - The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, which includes 30 different stocks, has consistently outperformed its benchmark indices, delivering superior returns with reduced risk [13]