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SolarEdge Technologies: The Early Warning Signals The Market Ignored
Benzinga· 2026-01-16 14:14
Core Viewpoint - SolarEdge Technologies has experienced significant market value loss since July 2023, attributed to structural deviations identified through the Adhishthana Principles framework [1][2]. Analysis of SolarEdge's Adhishthana Structure - The analysis reveals that SolarEdge is currently in Phase 3 of its 18-phase Adhishthana cycle, with the decline rooted in Phase 2 due to material deviations from expected behavior [2][3]. Phase 2 Deviation - During Phase 2, instead of consolidating, SolarEdge's stock price surged from the 35-36 range to nearly 377, marking a gain of over 938%, which was misaligned with the cycle's expectations [4][5]. Consequences of Early Rally - The premature rally during the Sankhya period, which typically should exhibit consolidation, led to structural instability, resulting in a correction as the stock transitioned into the Buddhi period [5][6]. Trend Reversal - As SolarEdge moved into the Buddhi segment, the stock trend reversed sharply, unwinding prior gains in accordance with Adhishthana expectations [8]. Weekly Chart Confirmation - On the weekly charts, SolarEdge's inability to maintain a bullish structure and breakdown from its Cakra formation in Phase 9 indicated a Move of Pralaya, characterized by intense selling pressure [9][10]. Investor Outlook - The sharp deviation during Phase 2 suggests deeper underlying issues, indicating that premature rallies should be approached with caution rather than optimism [11]. - With a broken Cakra and an unfavorable triad structure, SolarEdge lacks the necessary foundation for a sustainable recovery, likely remaining sluggish and vulnerable to further downside [12].
Ball Corp Stock Likely To Remain Range-Bound As Cycle Nears Completion
Benzinga· 2026-01-07 13:39
Core Viewpoint - Ball Corporation is currently in Phase 18 of its Adhishthana cycle, indicating a prolonged consolidation phase with the stock trading between $40 and $70 for over three years [1][5]. Group 1: Phase Analysis - The analysis of Ball's Phase 18 setup requires revisiting the Guna Triads, specifically Phases 14, 15, and 16, which are crucial for determining the potential for a Nirvana move in Phase 18 [2]. - For a Nirvana move to occur, the triads must demonstrate Satoguna, characterized by a sustained bullish structure; however, the current triad phases have not shown this bullish momentum [2][4]. - The lack of a meaningful bullish structure indicates that Phase 18 is unlikely to result in a breakout or new highs, leading to expectations of sluggish trading and false rallies [4]. Group 2: Current Stock Behavior - The stock has continued to oscillate within a wide range, with no durable trend emerging, and this pattern of consolidation is expected to persist until the conclusion of Phase 18 in August [5]. - Given the weak triad structure and absence of a Nirvana setup, the outlook for Ball Corporation remains muted, suggesting that long-term investors should not view the stock as a value opportunity at this stage [6]. - The current trading environment is more suitable for range-bound strategies, particularly options structures that benefit from time decay as Phase 18 progresses [6].
Shift4 Payments: What Lies Ahead After Breakout Rejection
Benzinga· 2026-01-05 12:43
Core Viewpoint - Shift4 Payments is currently experiencing prolonged stock weakness, having struggled for over 300 days, and is in Phase 7 of its 18-phase Adhishthana cycle [1] Group 1: Cakra Formation Analysis - According to Adhishthana Principles, stocks typically form a Cakra structure between Phases 4 and 8, which usually indicates bullish implications [2] - Shift4 Payments began forming its Cakra in July 2023 but experienced a premature breakout above the upper arc during late Phase 5 and early Phase 6, which is structurally unfavorable [3] - The market rejected this premature breakout, leading to a sharp reversal and a subsequent fall back into the Cakra arc, coinciding with its February 2025 quarterly results and the acquisition of Global Blue [4] Group 2: Move of Pralaya - After breaking below the lower arc of the Cakra, Shift4 Payments triggered a bearish move known as the Move of Pralaya, which is characterized by strong selling pressure [7] - Following the Cakra breakdown, the stock has declined by approximately 30% [7] Group 3: Future Outlook - Shift4 Payments is expected to experience bearishness, sluggish price action, and multiple false rallies from Phase 7 through Phase 13, with meaningful clarity on potential reversal only emerging in Phases 14, 15, and 16 [8] - The broader outlook remains weak, and the stock is likely to remain under pressure [8] Group 4: Investor Sentiment - Investors are advised to avoid fresh exposure to Shift4 Payments due to the confirmed Cakra breakdown and the anticipated prolonged weak stretch ahead in the cycle [9] - The monthly chart indicates the stock is in the early part of Phase 2, which is associated with consolidation and corrective behavior, suggesting that current weakness may persist for some time [10]
Why Chipotle's Buyback May Not Be Enough to Revive the Stock
Benzinga· 2025-12-15 13:49
Core Viewpoint - Chipotle has authorized a $1.8 billion share buyback program and has surpassed the 4,000-store milestone, prompting investors to evaluate the sustainability of the stock's recent strength [1]. Group 1: Cakra Structure Analysis - According to the Adhishthana Principles, stocks typically form a Cakra between Phases 4 and 8, which prepares them for a potential breakout in Phase 9 [2]. - Chipotle entered Phase 4 in August 2022 and initially adhered to the Cakra structure until Phase 6, but broke below the lower arc during Phase 7, altering its structural outlook [3]. - The breakdown led to a significant correction, with the stock falling nearly 50%, and as of December 15, it has transitioned into Phase 9, but with limited upside potential due to the prior bearish Cakra violation [5]. Group 2: Investor Outlook - The $1.8 billion buyback and store expansion may seem supportive, but they do not significantly change the stock's cycle positioning, as Chipotle has maintained repurchase programs since 2008 [7]. - The ongoing Cakra breakdown continues to influence the outlook, suggesting that any rallies are likely to be tactical and unsustainable rather than indicative of a trend [8]. - Investors are advised to wait for a clearer structural reset before considering long positions, rather than pursuing short-term gains driven by corporate announcements [8].
Netflix May Need A Few More Episodes Before The Plot Turns Bullish
Benzinga· 2025-12-09 14:01
Group 1: Acquisition and Market Dynamics - Netflix announced plans to acquire Warner Bros for $72 billion in equity value, attracting significant market attention [1] - The acquisition has faced potential Justice Department intervention and a counteroffer from Paramount of $108 billion, adding uncertainty to the deal [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Netflix Stock - Netflix is currently in Phase 15 on the weekly charts, which is part of the Guna Triad formation, indicating a potential for a Nirvana move in Phase 18 if the structure supports it [3][5] - The monthly charts show Netflix in Phase 7, associated with a corrective structure that typically unfolds across eight consecutive red bars, indicating ongoing selling pressure [6][8] - Phase 14 saw a constructive rally of 65%, while Phase 15 has been weaker, with the stock down approximately 25% [8] Group 3: Investor Outlook - The current market position of Netflix is characterized by elevated volatility and a bearish larger monthly trend, with the weekly chart in a triad formation [11] - Investors are advised to wait for clarity, which may improve after the completion of the Artah–Artharthi decline on the monthly chart or after Phase 16 on the weekly chart [14]
Is Corpay Poised For More Bullish Momentum Ahead?
Benzinga· 2025-12-08 16:35
Core Insights - Corpay (NYSE:CPAY) is currently experiencing a significant rally, having increased by approximately 20% following strong earnings reported on November 5 [1][5] - The stock is in Phase 2 of its 18 Adhishthana cycle, which suggests a bullish trend ahead [1][6] Group 1: Phase 2 Analysis - Phase 2 of the Adhishthana cycle is divided into two segments: the Move of Sankhya, characterized by a decline or consolidation, and the Move of Buddhi, marked by exponential growth [2] - Corpay entered Phase 2 in April 2025, initially experiencing a decline of about 30% during the Sankhya period before transitioning into the Move of Buddhi, which has led to a strong upward trend [4] Group 2: Earnings Impact - The earnings report released in early November coincided with the transition into the Move of Buddhi, which contributed to the sharp and sustained rally of the stock [5] - The timing of the strong earnings results amplified the bullish momentum, aligning perfectly with the favorable cycle conditions [5] Group 3: Investor Outlook - With a solid fundamental outlook and the ongoing Move of Buddhi, Corpay is expected to maintain its bullish momentum throughout the remainder of Phase 2 [6] - Investors currently holding the stock are encouraged to maintain their positions, as the market structure supports further upside potential [6]
Why Veeva Systems' Earnings Drop Aligns With Its Long-Term Structural Weakness
Benzinga· 2025-12-03 16:23
Core Insights - Veeva Systems is currently in Phase 18 of its Adhishthana cycle, which is the final stage, and the stock has experienced a significant decline following its recent earnings report [1][6] - A previous commentary issued in June warned that Veeva was entering a structurally weak zone, and the subsequent 20% drop in stock price validates this caution [8][9] Phase Analysis - The performance of Phase 18 is influenced by the preceding Guna Triads (Phases 14, 15, and 16), which must demonstrate strength for a Nirvana move to occur [3] - Veeva did not show the necessary strength during these triads, leading to expectations of sluggishness and weakness in Phase 18 [4][6] - Since entering Phase 18 on September 15, the stock has traded in a bearish manner, aligning with the anticipated behavior for this phase [6] Investor Outlook - The outlook for Veeva remains negative, with structural risks leaning towards the downside, and the final phase of the cycle does not support a long-term bullish perspective [9] - Investors considering the current decline as a value opportunity are advised to wait for a full reset of the Phase 18 cycle before making long-term positioning decisions [9]
Can Macy's Sustain Its Breakout As Q3 Earnings Loom?
Benzinga· 2025-12-01 11:07
Core Viewpoint - Macy's Inc. is approaching its Q3 earnings report on December 3, with the stock currently experiencing a bullish Cakra breakout within its Adhishthana cycle, indicating potential positive momentum ahead [1]. Group 1: Cakra Breakout and Phases - Under the Adhishthana Principles, Macy's has developed a Cakra structure between Phases 4 and 8, which is a long-term consolidation zone with bullish implications [2]. - Macy's entered Phase 4 in January 2022 and has since broken out decisively in Phase 9, resulting in a rally of approximately 38%, with a remarkable increase of over 116% in Phase 9 alone [3]. - Phase 9 for Macy's will continue until January 20, 2026, after which it will transition into Phase 10, where the likelihood of peak formation increases [5][6]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Investor Sentiment - With strong momentum in Phase 9 and the upcoming Q3 earnings, volatility is anticipated, but it is not expected to negatively impact the bullish structure [7]. - Investors holding Macy's stock have strong reasons to maintain their positions, as the breakout from the Cakra pattern supports a sustained bullish outlook, with any near-term dips likely being structural pauses rather than trend reversals [8]. - Macy's remains firmly within the ascent leg of the Himalayan Formation, with Phase 9 still having time to unfold before entering Phase 10, which may signal the first signs of an eventual peak [10].
Bath & Body Works Faces Structural Headwinds: What Lies Ahead?
Benzinga· 2025-11-25 12:57
Core Viewpoint - Bath & Body Works (NYSE:BBWI) is experiencing significant pressure, with recent earnings showing a decline in EPS from $0.49 to $0.37, and management forecasting a single-digit decline in net sales due to weaker consumer demand [1] Group 1: Earnings and Sales Performance - The company's EPS decreased to $0.37 from $0.49, indicating a decline in profitability [1] - Management anticipates a single-digit decline in net sales, attributing this to softer consumer demand [1] Group 2: Adhishthana Cycle Analysis - BBWI is currently in Phase 18 of its Adhishthana cycle, which is characterized by sluggishness and consolidation, with no sustainable bullish structure observed in previous phases [2][4] - The stock's transition into Phase 18 occurred in April 2025, and this phase will remain in effect until September 2026, suggesting that the current movement characteristics are likely to persist [5] Group 3: Guna Triads and Market Behavior - The Guna Triads indicate that for a Nirvana move to occur in Phase 18, a clean and sustainable bullish structure (Satoguna) is necessary, which is currently absent [7] - Due to the weak triad structure and lack of Satoguna, BBWI is expected to remain constrained in Phase 18, with any potential rallies being short-lived and unlikely to develop into meaningful trends [8] Group 4: Investment Strategy Implications - For long-term investors, the current cycle does not support value-driven positioning, indicating that this is not an accumulation zone [9] - Traders may consider a range-bound approach, utilizing credit spreads skewed to the downside to capitalize on the Phase 18 movement [9]
Why Stryker Stock May Be Headed For A Prolonged Slowdown
Benzinga· 2025-11-17 12:48
Core Insights - Stryker Corporation is currently experiencing a significant bearish development as it has broken its Cakra formation, indicating a prolonged period of underperformance [1][5][9] Cakra Formation Breakdown - The Cakra structure typically forms between Phases 4–8 and is associated with bullish implications; however, Stryker's stock broke below the lower arc during Phase 8, triggering a bearish signal known as the Move of Pralaya [2][3][5] Stock Performance - Since the breakdown, Stryker's stock has declined approximately 9%, with any attempts at a rebound being met with selling pressure, confirming the bearish shift [6][9] Cycle Outlook - The Move of Pralaya indicates that the underperformance is not a short-term issue and may extend for multiple phases until the Guna Triads (Phases 14–16) begin, suggesting a prolonged period of weakness for Stryker [7][9] Options Flow - The options market reflects bearish expectations, with heavy out-of-the-money (OTM) call writing observed for the November expiry, indicating a lack of confidence in the stock's near-term performance [8] Investor Outlook - The current situation suggests that Stryker's stock is in the early phase of its Pralaya move, with intensifying selling pressure expected; this breakdown may indicate deeper fundamental or structural issues beyond mere technical weaknesses [9]