Asia Insights Global Markets Research Economics - Asia ex-Japan China: Policymaking amid a stock market rally and growth slowdown As economists we do not forecast stock markets, but we closely watch their impact on policymaking and economic activity. We believe that China's stock market rally since late September last year has been primarily driven by solid fundamentals. However, based on what previously happened, the boom has the potential to lead to a rise in irrational exuberance, an increase in leveragi ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **China-US Trade Relations**: The trade truce between China and the US has been extended for another 90 days, maintaining the reciprocal tariff rate at 10% until November 10, 2025, instead of increasing to 34% as initially planned [2][3][7]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Tariff Impact**: Despite the extension of the tariff pause, the overall trade-weighted tariff rate on Chinese exports to the US remains approximately 46%. Direct exports to the US have seen a year-on-year decline of 22% as of July 2025 [2][3]. - **Negotiation Topics**: Future negotiations may address export controls, including rare earth shipments and technology exports, as well as potential increases in Chinese purchases of US goods, such as soybeans [3][4]. - **Soybean Imports**: In 2024, China imported USD 12 billion worth of soybeans from the US, accounting for 23% of its total soybean imports, while Brazil supplied USD 37 billion, representing 69% [3]. Technology and Sanctions - **Tech Sanctions**: The US has allowed Nvidia to resume sales of its H20 chip to China, with 15% of proceeds going to the US government. There are ongoing discussions about allowing downgraded Blackwell chips to be sold in China [4]. - **Cybersecurity Concerns**: China's cybersecurity watchdog has summoned Nvidia for discussions, urging local companies to avoid using H20 chips for government-related purposes due to security concerns [4]. Economic Policies and Initiatives - **Anti-Involution Campaign**: The Chinese government is actively pursuing an anti-involution campaign to stimulate economic growth, with new interest subsidies for consumption loans announced [7][8]. - **Infrastructure Projects**: Major infrastructure projects are being initiated, including the construction of a dam in Tibet and a railway connecting Xinjiang and Tibet, which are expected to boost demand [11]. - **Debt Management**: The Supreme People's Court has emphasized the importance of settling arrears to private enterprises, which is part of the broader anti-involution strategy [10]. Market Dynamics - **Lithium Production**: CATL, a leading battery manufacturer, has suspended production at its lithium mine in Yichun, which accounts for about 3% of global lithium carbonate output. This has led to a rally in lithium prices [9]. - **Economic Indicators**: The Producer Price Index (PPI) in China has shown weakness, declining by 3.6% year-on-year in July, although improvements are expected as the anti-involution campaign progresses [8]. Additional Insights - **Consumer Behavior**: The government is providing interest subsidies for personal consumption loans, which are expected to stimulate spending in various sectors, including automobiles and healthcare [13][14]. - **Real Estate Trends**: New home sales in Tier-1 cities remain below 2024 levels, while transactions in second-hand homes in Tier-1 and Tier-2 cities have shown year-on-year increases [42][43]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the ongoing trade dynamics, economic policies, and market trends affecting the Chinese economy and its interactions with the US.

Investment Rating - The report indicates a more sanguine outlook on growth and US-China trade tensions, suggesting a positive investment sentiment towards the Chinese economy [2][4]. Core Insights - The Politburo has shown increased confidence in China's near-term growth outlook, citing strong performance in major economic indicators [2][3]. - There is a focus on addressing overcapacity and promoting orderly competition among enterprises, with a commitment to optimize market order [3][4]. - The report highlights a shift towards detailed policy implementation, emphasizing proactive fiscal policy and moderately accommodative monetary policy [4][6]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The Politburo's recent meeting reflects a more optimistic view on economic growth, with expectations of continued resilience despite external shocks [2][3]. - The potential extension of the US-China tariff truce indicates a reduction in trade tensions, which may positively impact economic stability [2][3]. Policy Measures - The report notes that the Politburo has committed to implementing existing policies more effectively rather than introducing new measures, signaling a focus on execution [4][6]. - There is a lack of urgency for additional stimulus measures, particularly in the consumer trade-in program, suggesting a cautious approach to fiscal expansion [7]. Local Government Debt - The report emphasizes the need for risk resolution regarding local government financing vehicle (LGFV) debt, with a strict prohibition on new hidden debt [7]. - The RMB10 trillion debt swap program is viewed as insufficient to address the total local government debt of approximately RMB60 trillion [7]. Property and Capital Markets - The Politburo's meeting indicated less urgency for large supportive measures in the property market, focusing instead on urban renovation programs [7]. - The report suggests that the stock market will see reinforced frameworks rather than direct property support measures [7].