Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The Asia/EM equity markets are currently trading close to the bull case targets set for June 2026, primarily due to multiple expansions, which may not be sustainable without a significant reacceleration in global growth [8][10][19] - Valuations in Asia/EM are now 1.0-1.8 standard deviations above 10-year averages, indicating potential overvaluation [10][19] Core Insights - Earnings per share (EPS) growth is crucial for sustaining current valuations; without it, the market may face corrections [8][10] - China’s economic reflation is progressing slowly, while India is expected to see a rebound in growth rates [8][19] - The US dollar is anticipated to weaken further, which could benefit emerging markets [8][40] - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) may still consider rate hikes, while the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to cut rates significantly [8][19] Market Preferences - Overweight (OW) positions are recommended in Japan, Singapore, India, UAE, and Brazil, while underweight (UW) positions are suggested for Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan [8][19] - Preference for local currency earners, particularly in Financials, Domestic E-commerce/Consumer, and Industrials (including Defense) sectors [8][19] - Underweight positions in Energy and Materials (excluding Gold), with a selective approach in Information Technology [8][19] Earnings and Valuation Targets - Current and target prices for major indices as of September 30, 2025: - TOPIX: Current 3,138, Target 2,900, Fwd P/E 13.8x [17][19] - MSCI EM: Current 1,346, Target 1,200, Fwd P/E 12.5x [17][19] - MSCI China: Current 89, Target 78, Fwd P/E 11.2x [17][19] - CSI300: Current 4,641, Target 4,000, Fwd P/E 12.9x [17][19] Global Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley continues to expect a global economic slowdown, which may impact equity markets [21][40] - There has been a surge in interest in emerging markets (EM), with inflows observed in 8 out of the last 10 weeks [44][47] Company Focus List - Notable companies included in the Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific ex Japan Focus List: - Bajaj Finance (India, Financials) with a market cap of $69.4 billion and a target price indicating a 16% upside [50] - Delta Electronics (Taiwan, Information Technology) with a market cap of $72.8 billion and a target price indicating a 31% upside [50] - Tencent Holdings (China, Communication Services) with a market cap of $787.5 billion and a target price indicating a 6.1% upside [50] Additional Insights - The focus list has outperformed the MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan Index since inception, with a total return of 548.5% compared to the index's 318.8% [50] - Analysts express caution regarding the sustainability of current valuations without corresponding EPS growth [8][10][19]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Asia Pacific** and **Emerging Markets (EM)** equity strategy, highlighting the current market conditions and future outlook for these regions [2][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Equity Rally Conclusion**: The rally in equities from early April appears to be nearing its end, with valuations reaching all-time highs and evident downside growth risks [2][10]. - **US Dollar Weakness**: The primary trend of US dollar weakness is expected to continue, influencing investment strategies focused on domestic demand [2][10]. - **Quality Investment Focus**: Emphasis on quality stocks remains crucial, particularly through the "Best Business Models Approach" [10][41]. - **Sector Performance**: Financials are anticipated to outperform Information Technology (IT) sectors, and AI adopters are expected to outperform enablers [10][73]. - **Regional Bull Markets**: India, Japan, and Singapore are identified as secular bull markets despite facing near-term challenges [10][73]. - **China's Economic Challenges**: The slow reflation in China and the concept of "involution" are highlighted as significant concerns for the region [10][73]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Valuation Metrics**: Valuations in Asia/EM are noted to be relatively high compared to historical averages, with the Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio at all-time highs [45][48]. - **Market Performance Trends**: Historical data indicates that August has been the worst month for both EM and Japan equities, suggesting potential seasonal trends in market performance [52]. - **Earnings Revisions**: Earnings revisions across various markets show a negative trend, particularly in MSCI Japan and MSCI EM, indicating potential challenges ahead [60]. - **Cyclical Adjustments in India**: India is undergoing cyclical adjustments amid a broader structural outperformance trend, which may present unique investment opportunities [61][62]. Economic Indicators - **GDP Growth Forecasts**: The global economy is expected to experience a slowdown, with the US facing a deeper downturn compared to Asia [19][21]. - **Inflation Trends**: Inflation in the US is contrasted with deflationary pressures in Asia, affecting trade dynamics [22][23]. - **Trade Dynamics**: US import prices from Asia have risen, while Asia's export prices are under pressure, indicating shifting trade conditions [23][24]. Conclusion - The conference call provides a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the Asia Pacific and EM equity markets, emphasizing the importance of quality investments, sector performance, and regional economic conditions. The insights presented are crucial for investors looking to navigate the complexities of these markets in the coming periods.