Group 1 - The global capital market is experiencing significant volatility, with gold prices surpassing $3200 per ounce, driven by factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, geopolitical conflicts, and instability in the digital currency system [1] - Traditional safe-haven assets like gold are showing signs of weakness, as evidenced by a nearly 2% drop in gold ETFs following positive developments in US-China trade negotiations, indicating vulnerability to policy shifts [1] - The ongoing trend of central banks increasing gold reserves for 17 consecutive months reflects structural anxiety regarding the credibility of the US dollar system, suggesting that gold may only serve as a temporary solution in a shifting order [1] Group 2 - Bitcoin is emerging as a new safe-haven asset, demonstrating resilience during the US dollar depreciation cycle, attracting institutional funds due to its fixed supply and decentralized nature, despite its volatility [2] - Chinese core assets are gaining attention as safe-haven investments, with foreign capital increasingly allocating to undervalued sectors such as banking, power equipment, and biopharmaceuticals, particularly benefiting from high dividend yields in a low-interest-rate environment [2] - The safe-haven logic of the Japanese yen and Swiss franc is evolving, with the yen's exchange rate becoming more correlated with the VIX index following the Bank of Japan's policy changes, while the Swiss franc remains a refuge for European capital due to its high gold reserve ratio [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's impending shift in monetary policy is expected to impact various commodities, with historical data indicating that industrial precious metals like copper and silver typically see average gains of 18% within three months of the first rate cut, outpacing gold's 7% [3] - The potential resolution of US-China trade agreements may create new investment opportunities in sectors benefiting from tariff reductions, such as electric vehicles, cross-border payments, and biotechnology, which could replicate the explosive growth seen in the 2024 Hongmeng Zhixing industry chain [3] - There are hidden opportunities in "asymmetric risks," where investing in volatility index (VIX) derivatives could serve as insurance against unexpected market movements when the market collectively bets on interest rate cuts [3] Group 4 - As the allure of gold as a safe haven diminishes, capital is seeking more aggressive safety margins, requiring investors to build dynamic portfolios that hedge recession risks with US Treasuries, capture benefits from digital currency transitions, and share in the growth of core Asian assets [4] - Historical events such as the Great Depression and the collapse of the Bretton Woods system have shown that the disintegration of old orders often paves the way for the emergence of new investment opportunities and market leaders [4]